Richard Carmona
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 11/17-20. Arizona voters. MoE ±4.4% (no trendlines):
Richard Carmona (D): 36
Jeff Flake (R): 40
Undecided: 24
Richard Carmona (D): 33
Wil Cardon (R): 35
Undecided: 32
Don Bivens (D): 32
Jeff Flake (R): 42
Undecided: 36
Don Bivens (D): 27
Wil Cardon (R): 35
Undecided: 37
Arizona's open seat Senate race, to fill the vacancy left by three-term Republican Jon Kyl's retirement, may be ready to turn from sleepy to sleeper, thanks to the recruitment of an intriguing candidate on the Democrats' side. The candidacy of fairly-prominent Republican Rep. Jeff Flake and the unlikelihood of a run by Democratic Rep. Gabby Giffords for health reasons (she would have led Flake by 7, according to PPP's May poll) seemed to move this one into the red column almost as soon as it began, but the entry of former Surgeon General Richard Carmona seems to have revived Democratic fortunes a bit. Whether this gets closer, or turns into a fools-gold race for the Democrats (the flipside of, say, New Jersey, where close early polling for Republicans in Senate races always eventually fizzles), remains to be seen, but at the very least it's one more spot where the GOP will have to spend money playing defense.
The best indication that Carmona has some upside here is that he's much less well-known than Flake (17/11 favorables, compared with 33/27 for Flake) and yet stays competitive. Carmona's advantage here seems to be crossover support; he has 13/12 faves among Republicans, and gets 10 percent of GOPers to vote for him. Of course, the obstacle course Carmona faces is daunting: never having run for office before, he has to figure out how to hone a message and run a campaign operation; he has to assuage enough people about his Democratic bona fides (he was Surgeon General in the Bush administration) to survive a primary against former state party chair Don Bivens; and if he emerges from the primary, he has to scrape together the money to compete against well-funded likely GOP nominee Flake.
Carmona's (or Bivens') job in the general would be easier if the primary instead went to tea-flavored rich guy Wil Cardon, who seems to be trying to carve out space to the right of Flake in the primary, despite Flake being one of the most conservative House members according to most metrics. (That's mostly on fiscal issues, though; Cardon's wedge is immigration and social issues, where Flake tends to be more laissez-faire.) PPP's poll of the primary (53-7 for Flake) suggests that's not likely to happen, though.