So a lot of folks were shocked when the State Senate released their draft maps for Florida this week and found that some Republican incumbents like Rep. Tom Rooney were weakened. To those of us in FL who have been participating in this redistricting process, it comes as no surprise. This diary will outline some of the reasons why this district was drawn to be more competitive and some of the after-effects
So first lets look at the new District itself:
District 16 now includes all of St Lucie County, Martin County, and parts of Okeechobee and Palm Beach Counties. It would have voted 52 percent for President Obama under the new lines, with Obama winning St Lucie and Palm Beach County and McCain winning Martin and Okeechobee.
There were several reasons why the staff drew the lines this way. At the Southeast FL committee meeting on redistricting we had 3 weeks ago, Sen. Joe Negron (R-Stuart) asked the staff to draw seats that kept northern Palm Beach county together with Okeechobee and Martin Counties. The reasoning behind that request is because Negron happens to represent these areas currently and seems to be positioning for a future congressional run. Joe Negron, for those of you who remember back in 2006, was the last minute replacement candidate the Republicans tried to field when Mark Foley resigned over the page sex scandal. His congressional ambitions have been known here for quite some time, and I suspect the main reasons these lines were drawn this way was to give him a leg up in the primary either against Rooney who hasnt represented most of this territory or in the future decade.
So lets talk about the effects of this move:
While Martin and Okeechobee Counties are quite Republican even on the local level, St Lucie County is traditionally Democratic, even more so at the local and state level. Both Alex Sink and Obama carried the County, and even Betty Castor in her loss to former Sen. Mel Martinez carried it. So adding all of St Lucie County not only added more Democratic voters to the district, it also added a stronger bench of Dem candidates to the district, including fmr. State Rep Adam Fetterman (D-St Lucie) who narrowly lost his seat to a popular Representative who preceded him in the seat in 2010, St Lucie County Commission Chair Chris Craft (hows that for alliteration), and St Lucie Sheriff Ken Mascara.
Id particularly watch to see what Fetterman or Mascara do once the lines get finalized in the legislature. Fetterman represented a tough district that included a chunk of Martin County which is really the key to winning the district. While Mascara is well known even in Northern Palm Beach County and would make a strong recruit.
At 52% Obama, Sen Negron and the Republicans on the redistricting committee are certainly placing a large bet on Negron campaigning abilities. Lets hope they are wrong.