Most of US unemployed no longer receive benefits
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER
updated 11/5/2011 8:49:47 PM ET
WASHINGTON — The jobs crisis has left so many people out of work for so long that most of America's unemployed are no longer receiving unemployment benefits.
Early last year, 75 percent were receiving checks. The figure is now 48 percent — a shift that points to a growing crisis of long-term unemployment. Nearly one-third of America's 14 million unemployed have had no job for a year or more.
Congress is expected to decide by year's end whether to continue providing emergency unemployment benefits for up to 99 weeks in the hardest-hit states. If the emergency benefits expire, the proportion of the unemployed receiving aid would fall further.
The ranks of the poor would also rise. The Census Bureau says unemployment benefits kept 3.2 million people from slipping into poverty last year. It defines poverty as annual income below $22,314 for a family of four.
Yet for a growing share of the unemployed, a vote in Congress to extend the benefits to 99 weeks is irrelevant. They've had no job for more than 99 weeks. They're no longer eligible for benefits.
Their options include food stamps or other social programs. Nearly 46 million people received food stamps in August, a record total. That figure could grow as more people lose unemployment benefits.
So could the government's disability rolls. Applications for the disability insurance program have jumped about 50 percent since 2007.
"There's going to be increased hardship," said Wayne Vroman, an economist at the Urban Institute.
The number of unemployed has been roughly stable this year. Yet the number receiving benefits has plunged 30 percent....
...Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has noted that the long-term unemployed increasingly find it hard to find work as their skills and professional networks erode. In a speech last month, Bernanke called long-term unemployment a "national crisis" that should be a top priority for Congress.
Lawmakers will have to decide whether to continue the extended benefits by the end of this year. If the program ends, nearly 2.2 million people will be cut off by February.
Congress has extended the program nine times. But it might balk at the $45 billion cost. It will be the first time the Republican-led House of Representatives will vote on the issue.
and it gets worse. As the AFL-CIO points out
New Jobs Created Are Nearly All Low-Wage
by Tula Connell, Jul 27, 2011
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So, even as there are still 4.7 workers for every one job, the jobs that are being created are primarily low-wage—and the wages in those jobs have fallen disproportionately, according to a new report by the National Employment Law Project (NELP).
From the NELP report:
During the recession, employment losses occurred throughout the economy, but were concentrated in mid-wage occupations. Of the net employment losses between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2010, fully 60.0 percent were in mid-wage occupations, 21.3 percent were in lower-wage
occupations, and 18.7 percent were in higher-wage occupations.
In the weak recovery to date, employment growth has been concentrated in lower-wage occupations, with minimal growth in mid-wage occupations and net losses in higher-wage occupations. From the first quarter of 2010 through the first quarter of 2011, lower-wage occupations grew by 3.2 percent, with retail salespersons, office clerks, cashiers, food preparation workers and stock clerks topping the list. Mid-wage occupations grew by only 1.2 percent and higher-wage occupations declined by 1.2 percent.
Well, how long can that last. Demand drives sales and sales jobs. With no higher-wage earners around to buy anything, this seem pretty fragile to me
The net result is that the current U.S. jobs deficit is not evenly distributed. It is largest among mid-wage occupations (8.4 percent below pre-recession employment), compared to higher-wage occupations (4.1 percent below pre-recession employment) and lower-wage occupations (0.3 percent below pre-recession employment).
In addition, workers’ real wages have shown no growth since the start of the recession. Of greatest concern, workers in lower-wage occupations have seen a significant 2.3 percent decline in real wages –precisely the occupations that are generating the bulk of recovery employment growth.
As I said.
Even before the Great Recession, the U.S. labor market was already seeing inadequate growth in mid-wage occupations. From the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2008, lower-wage and higher-wage
occupations saw significantly higher net employment growth than did mid-wage occupations
There is only one way to kickstart an economy like this: government spending. And only two types of spending will have a lasting impact.
1. A fairly large war. Watch for this one, the defense contractors are not giving up without a fight; see NY Times: Lawmakers Aim to Stop Defense Cuts if Debt Panel Fails
2. Infrastructure construction and maintenance. But, of course, our Republican friends just blocked that one. To their potential detriment, I think.
Let's examine:
Harry Reid is a pretty savvy guy, and breaking up the large, failed jobs bill into pieces was a win-win move: should the pieces pass, then policy moves forward; should they be filibustered (as they have) then the Reps set up a record of blocking any kind of job initiative as the economy goes into the crapper.
As I've mentioned before, some people seem to be catching on:
Will voters buy the idea that GOP is sabotaging economy? by Greg Sargent
In Florida, it seems, the answer is yes:
Steve Benen flags what seems to be a first: A poll gauging whether voters are prepared to believe that Republicans are deliberately sabotaging the recovery in order to take back the White House. With the Obama campaign and Democrats signaling that this argument will be central in 2012, this seems like a relevant question.
The poll, which surveyed Florida voters, was conducted by Suffolk University. I tracked down the poll’s internals, and here’s the relevant question:
Do you think the Republicans are intentionally stalling efforts to jumpstart the economy to insure that Barack Obama is not reelected?
Yes 49
No 39
Undecided 12
This is only one state, but as Steve notes, “it’s a large, diverse swing state that both parties take very seriously.” And nearly half of these voters say they believe this — even though the question is asked in a very provocative way.
This could be a real winning meme here, particularly as, unlike a lot of what passes for news, it happens to be true.
It's very hard to argue against a lot of the jobs initiatives with a straight face, but some are easier to badmouth than others. After all, not everyone has kids in school, so not everyone feels invested in teachers salaries. We all believe we are invincible, so it's easy to ignore emergency services.
But no drivers (and the more expensive a car is, the more likely the driver is a voter) want to hit a pothole and deal with the expense and hassle of repairs. Likewise, no one want to be on a collapsing bridge. Or in a flooded tunnel. Or stuck in traffic for hours.
Likewise, companies with serious supply chain operations don't want them interrupted, it cost them too much in fuel and time. And the who system is on the verge of an interrupt.
So here we have a combination of commuters and suppliers who could all benefit from infrastructure spending, just waiting to be recruited into an alliance with job creators.
Add to it the environmental and public health groups that are natural allies of public transportation, and you have a coalition with some serious muscle that can push for the jobs that will repair our roads and build our rails.
The following groups will hit the ground running:
The American Public Transportation Association (APTA) and its affiliated Public Transportation Advocates in Action
Reconnecting America
Smart Growth America
Transportation for America (T4 America) and its many affiliated organizations
But they will need help from the following:
Environmental Groups. They are very heavily invested in cap and trade and have traditionally made transportation a second priority. They must be convinced that this need to be revered om the neart term is we want any kind of improvement at all
Public Health Groups. Public transit is in the interest of the American Hearth Association, the American Lung Association, the American Cancer Society, and all children’s’ health organizations. They have begun to look at public transportation, but they must be convinced to make it a top legislative priority.
The key committees to watch and pressure will be as follows:
The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, which has a genuine long record of bipartisanship, and whose incoming Chairman, Jon Mica of FL, is not against transit.
In the Senate, the following three committees: Environment and Public Works, with jurisdiction over highways, Banking, with jurisdiction over public transit, and Commerce, with jurisdiction of long range rail.
This a plank just waiting for the Democratic platform.