States have been busy finalizing their redistricting plans, and SSP Labs (a division of Daily Kos Elections) has been busy just trying to keep up. Today, we bring you four more states - Hawaii, Idaho, Maryland, and Michigan.
If you need a visual reference for any of the maps, just check the proper link in the new-and-improved condensed table (we've added Nevada, and as always, don't forget Texas is split!):
It's December in Chicago, and I'm cold, so let's start with Hawaii:
Not much has changed in the Aloha state, with a minor one-way transfer of population from Mazie Hirono's slightly overpopulated 2nd into Colleen Hanabusa's slightly underpopulated 1st. The area added - a slice of O'ahu around Kapolei - is Republican by Hawai'i standards, but the effect is really quite minimal, with performance in the 1st dropping by less than one-fifth of a percent. Now that Hirono is running for Senate, the 2nd will be open; fortunately for us, it's always been the bluer of Hawaii's districts (even not considering Obama's massive overperformance). Also, file this in the "things you didn't know" department (or maybe you did know them; in which case, props) - Niihau is the most Republican of Hawaii's islands at 88% McCain! (Lana'i was Obama's best, at 79% Obama.)
Moving our way slowly eastward, let's take a pit stop in Idaho. (If you're in Boise ever, hit up the Boise Fry Company, seriously.)
Redistricting in two-district states is easy to think about, and Idaho is no exception. The transfer from the overpacked 1st to the 2nd is bi-directional here, but the main shift was the move of more of Boise city from the 1st to the 2nd, with very little moved in the other direction. Boise - the city itself being a fairly blue island in a red state - is enough to meaningfully affect both districts, with the 1st swinging about 0.75% away from us and the 2nd swinging about 0.75% towards us. Compounded on top of this is that Walt Minnick doesn't seem like he'll run again (having founded his own political consulting firm); let's just say we won't be holding the 1st any time soon.
Coming to Michigan next:
The GOP really set out to screw Gary Peters here, which becomes evident in just how evenly his district was divided between Mike Rogers', Thad McCotter's, Sandy Levin's, and Hansen Clarke's various districts. Conventional wisdom before the map's release largely presaged a Peters-Levin matchup in the new 9th, but perhaps smartly, Peters jumped to the new 14th (of which he's represented more of before). A ripple effect of this is just how much the GOP stretched to help McCotter, giving him a district with one-third new constituents (and about 3.7% more Republican).
Other movement is fairly de minimis - perhaps Justin Amash's 3rd will be competitive, having moved 0.8% in our direction. (Mark Schauer's Calhoun County base is there now, transplated from the old 7th, which has become 0.9% more Republican to incumbent Tim Walberg's favor).
Dale Kildee's now-open 5th swings 0.6% against us - likely as the underpopulated district needed to expand outward - but remains solidly Democratic. Dave Camp and Mike Rogers' districts remain frustratingly out of reach; they remain Obama districts, with the needle moved a few tenths of a point in the GOP's favor. The same story holds for Dan Benishek's UP-based 1st. The map is remarkably consistent, with all incumbent GOPers getting a 0.2% to 1.0% boost in their direction (save for McCotter, who gets more). This is offset by a Democratic boost in the 9th, 12th, and 13th (which hardly needed it). The average swing across all districts is actually -0.4%, owing the underpopulated Democratic Flint/Detroit districts needing to expanding outwards.
And finally, Maryland (of course I went in alphabetical order - it's the Old Line State. Which, no, does NOT refer to the Mason-Dixon line):
As was widely speculated before the map's release, the GOPer in the hot seat is the ostensibly moderate octogenarian Roscoe Bartlett. True to form, the Dem-held lege gave him 48% new constituents.
Heavily Dem-voting constituents, that is. The result is a massive 15.9% swing in our direction, up to a 56.3% Obama district - anchored by a 57% Obama Frederick section and a 67% Obama Montgomery (MoCo) section. Consider this my famous last (election-related) words: I fully expect to see Congressman Rob Garagiola in the 113th Congress - these Democrats that got put in here are solid Democrats that will turn out next year (and no, I don't expect former Councilwoman Duchy Trachtenburg to win - the reason she's a
former Councilwoman is because she got bounced in the Democratic primary in 2010).
In order to make this happen, Chris Van Hollen's 8th took somewhat of a hit (11% away from us) and Donna Edwards' 4th (8% away from us). Donna Edwards, her grousing about the map aside, of course, was never in any general election danger anyway, as she now holds an "only" 77% Obama district.
Elsewhere, the convoluted lines in the Baltimore area give both 2nd district Rep. Dutch Ruppersburger and 3rd district Rep. John Sarbanes a boost. Sarbanes' district is really rather unholy-looking here, reaching from inside the DC beltway near White Oak up through Baltimore to Towson, with another arm pivoting to pick up Annapolis.
They say that, sometimes, the fight in Maryland is not between the Dems and GOP, but between the DC and Baltimore spheres of influence. Sarbanes' desire to represent the state capital has always been well announced, but this new district now puts 16% of his constituents in DC-leaning MoCo, with many of his HoCo (Howard County) constituents becoming more DC-centric than Baltimore-oriented. Some shift towards the DC 'burbs was inevitable given higher population growth there, but this new configuration of the 3rd can't help but make me wonder if this is giving the younger Sarbanes some more visibility in the DC 'burbs in preparation for a future statewide run....
So there you have it, a quick tour of four more states.