Senators Harry Reid and Mitch McConnell. Yep, here we go again. (Joshua Roberts/Reuters)
With the Senate at a Sen. Mitch McConnell-
induced standstill over critical, end-of-year bills, the
dark humor comes out. "One Democratic aide joked that it was turning into 'a mutual assured destruction scenario.'"
That's referring to Senate Majority Leader Reid's attempt to prevent the House from leaving town before working out a compromise on the unacceptable payroll tax cut extension bill they passed Tuesday. To keep the House around, Reid is holding out on key government funding bills, making sure that the House still has to take up those bills before leaving town. He's hanging on to that funding to maintain leverage for negotiating on the payroll tax cuts. His options, however, for how this plays out are all frustrating and all problematic.
The most likely scenario is the one currently being pursued. Reid has begun the process of bringing the House Republican payroll tax scheme to the Senate floor through normal procedures. But without any help from Republicans, that bill will only get a vote on Saturday, after a potential shutdown.
A second possibility is to pass the short-term continuing resolution Reid requested to keep the government open while lawmakers keep talking. McConnell objected to that in the heated back-and-forth on the Senate floor.
Democrats don't currently see a way to force his hand and get something done by the time the government runs out of money on Friday. Continuing Resolutions originate in the House of Representatives. Even if one was brought up to the Senate through regular order, a Democratic aide suggested that McConnell would be able to corral his members to deny it the 60 votes needed to cross procedural hurdles.
Moreover, sources said Reid and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) are not even talking, and a GOP aide suggested the House is unlikely to send a continuing resolution. "There's a bipartisan, bicameral spending bill ready to go," the aide said. [...]
There are a few other options for Reid. He could try and attach an agreeable version of the payroll tax cut extension to the omnibus spending bill. But that bill is already nearly finished being "conferenced" to make the House and Senate versions agree with each other, and if it were to come to the Senate as a conference report, it could not be amended.
Democrats in the conference committee could try to attach a payroll tax cut before sending it to the House and Senate, but that might irrevocably compromise the $1 trillion measure, ruining any chance of a long-term solution to spending wars that pop up every half-year.
"The people in the conference could put it in but that would be difficult to do," explained one leadership aide. "Republicans would object to it."
There is also the option of simply punting on the payroll tax cut until early next year, even though President Obama and Reid have both vowed they would work through the Christmas break to extend the cut.
Under this scenario, Democratic leadership will allow for the omnibus to pass and then simply head home. Workers would soon see their paychecks cut by 2 percent, and if, as the White House has insisted, Republicans would face criticism for letting the payroll tax cut expire, they will likely be eager to return to D.C. quickly to resolve the issue. This option, however, has obvious and dangerous pitfalls.
As unpalatable as it seems, that could be the most attractive political solution, because Democrats can still argue that Republicans held up the middle class tax cuts because they refused to raise taxes on millionaires. Beyond the hit to middle class families' paychecks in January that would happen if Democrats took this option, however, is that there are other critical extensions in the mix: unemployment insurance extension and the "doc fix" which prevents a major cut to physician reimbursements for Medicare. Those elements would have to be dealt with, and because they are must-pass, they're ripe for hostage taking.
The only thing that's certain right now: The next few days won't do anything to boost Congress's approval ratings.