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Leading Off:
• MA-Sen: Diarist hesterprynne at Blue Mass Group digs up a great quote that Scott Brown undoubtedly wishes he could un-say, made right after Dem Gov. Deval Patrick was elected to his first term in 2006—and Mitt Romney was about to leave office:
State Senator Scott P. Brown said it will be “refreshing” not to have a Republican in the corner office because he won’t have to “carry the governor’s water” and can vote how he wants to vote.
Senate:
• IN-Sen: With five months to go before the GOP primary, Sen. Dick Lugar is airing radio ads that try to put some distance between himself and President Obama—a relationship I suspect keeps coming up in his polls as his biggest vulnerability. Lugar as you know faces Treasurer Richard Mourdock, who has been coming at him from the right.
• KY-Sen: Unsurprisingly, AG Jack Conway, the 2010 Democratic Senate nominee, says he will "probably not" make a second Senate bid in 2014, when Mitch McConnell's seat will be up. However, he did have praise for outgoing state Auditor Crit Luallen, who he said would be a "strong candidate."
• NV-Sen: I really don't think David Drucker's piece on GOP Sen. Dean Heller lives up to its lede:
Dean Heller has carved out a more pragmatic voting record than might have been expected for an appointed Republican Senator whose Nevada primary is still six months away. […]
“My voting record’s pretty darn conservative,” Heller said in an interview with Roll Call. […]
Heller’s voting record is in step with his party, according to statistics compiled by Congressional Quarterly. From 2007 to 2010, the Nevada Republican received an average 89 percent rating from the American Conservative Union, while voting with the GOP more than 92 percent of the time. But he has made it a habit to pick strategic moments to work with Democrats — a tactic that seems designed to help him statewide in Nevada in a targeted Senate race.
So Drucker starts off by saying Heller's voting record is "more pragmatic," but then Heller himself says his record is "pretty darn conservative," and then even Drucker acknowledges that Heller's record is "in step with his party." The final sentence I quoted seems to be the give-away: Drucker's lede conflates occasional higher-profile apostasies with actual changes in voting patterns. It may be smart politics, but those two behaviors are not the same thing, and it definitely doesn't mean Heller is any more "pragmatic" than he was six months ago.
• TX-Sen: A second Democrat with a non-Some Dude profile has filed for the Senate race: Jason Gibbons Gibson, president of the Houston Trial Lawyers Association. I have to imagine that someone with a background like this has to be pretty well-connected and must know quite a few wealthy people. He joins former state Rep. Paul Sadler in the primary.
• WA-Sen: You might recall a few days ago that Republican state Sen. Michael Baumgartner—the only semi-noteworthy candidate to oppose Maria Cantwell so far—stepped in it when he said that Cantwell didn't have standing to comment on the availability of Plan B to teenagers because she isn't married. We figured at the time it would disappear quickly down the memory hole along with the zillions of other douchey things Republicans say every day... but this may have real legs, as today the Seattle Times tore Baumgartner a new one with an editorial, calling his actions "backhanded" and "immature." That's news, because the Times is the main keeper of the flame of moderate Republicanism in the state, and if they're going to throw him overboard this early (they stuck with Mike! McGavick to the bitter end in '06), his future hopes of Rob McKenna/Dave Reichert-style crossover appeal are basically nil. (David Jarman)
Gubernatorial:
• ID-Gov: Keith Allred, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in 2010, isn't ruling out a second attempt, but he says: "It’s too early for me to think seriously about the 2014 election." Allred lost to GOP Gov. Butch Otter 59-33 last year.
• UT-Gov: This sounds like an interesting potential get for Democrats: Retired two-star Army Reserve Gen. Peter Cooke says it's "very, very, very probable" he'll run for governor. Cooke is also described as a real estate developer, so that may imply some personal wealth as well. Obviously Utah is about as difficult a state as they come, but incumbent Gov. Gary Herbert is already being challenged in the GOP primary by state Rep. Ken Sumsion and former state Rep. Morgan Philpot, so we can always hope for lighting to strike this can of cat fud.
House:
• CT-05: This is a good get for House Speaker Chris Donovan: He's just been endorsed by the Working Families Party—and remember that Connecticut, like neighboring New York, uses fusion voting. That means that Donovan, should he succeed in getting the Democratic nomination, will appear on two separate ballot lines next November—which itself is a further argument in his favor in terms of winning the Dem nod. It also probably means the WFP will put their backs into seeing him get elected.
• KY-04: Boone County Judge-Executive Gary Moore just became the second Republican to announce for Rep. Geoff Davis's now-open seat, joining state Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington. (By the way, "judge executive" is a term peculiar to Kentucky—and there's no judging involved. The job is equivalent to that of county executive.) The linked piece also mentions two new possible GOP names: state Sen. Katie Stine and attorney Marcus Carey.
• NM-01: Daily Kos just endorsed New Mexico state Sen. Eric Griego in the Democratic primary to succeed Rep. Martin Heinrich, who is running for Senate. Earlier in the day, Democracy for America did the same thing, joining supporters like MoveOn, Progressive Caucus Co-Chair Raul Grijalva, AFSCME, and the Teamsters. As Markos explains in his post, it's important for progressives to unite to stop the odious former mayor of Albuquerque, Marty Chavez, who fits the mold of guys like Ed Case and Katrina Swett. (For some of his douchiest hits, click here and here.)
• NC-06: Republican Rep. Howard Coble, 80, who has been in the hospital for over a week with an "upper respiratory infection," was declared by doctors to be "too weak" to go home over the weekend as planned. He is expected to stay until at least Wednesday or Thursday. We wish him a speedy recovery.
• PA-18: Damn, that's a lot of bunsen burners. The American Chemistry Council, a lobbying group, is going up with a half-million dollar ad buy on behalf of GOP Rep. Tim Murphy. Murphy's not exactly endangered, seeing as his district is still 55-44 McCain, just like it was under the old lines. Dave Catanese suggests there might be some concern about a primary challenge from former congressional staffer Evan Feinberg, but he seems pretty small-time. Rather, I'd surmise that a trade organization like the ACC will often look to support its friends independently of any actual electoral need. Take a look at some of the other incumbents they're running ads for: Except for Scott Brown, none are at all vulnerable.
• WV-01: State Rep. Tim Manchin, whom we mentioned the other day as a possible replacement candidate for ex-state Sen. Mike Oliverio, just met with the DCCC on Monday in West Virginia to discuss a possible run. Dave Catanese reports that the D-Trip "is lining up members to call Manchin over the next week to provide encouragement and pledge fundraising assistance." Activist Sue Thorne, in a diary here at Daily Kos, also says she also recently met with the DCCC (albeit in DC), as well as a number of other political organizations.
Other Races:
• WI Recall: Dane101 has a great roundup of the status of all the state Senate recall efforts currently underway in Wisconsin. A quick by-the-numbers summation, including the legal minimum that need to be filed by Jan. 17:
• SD-13: Scott Fitzgerald (R): 9,200 signatures, need 16,792
• SD-21: Van Wangaard (R): "at least 16,000," need 15,500
• SD-23: Terry Moulton (R): "more than 10,000," need 14,958
• SD-29: Pam Galloway (R): "more than 10,000," need 15,647
I loved this line from the organizers of the Galloway drive: "No difficulties here other than that she is not very well known. I'm sure I've met more of her constituents than she has." Zing!
Grab Bag:
• Payroll Tax Cut: Sean Sullivan at the Hotline has a good run-down of how the fight in Congress over the payroll tax cut is playing on the campaign trail in seven different Senate races. (It's kind of bizarro world, isn't it, that Democrats are defending a tax cut while Republicans are trying to eliminate it?)
Redistricting Roundup:
• MS Redistricting: The federal panel redrawing Mississippi's congressional lines has released a new plan, and while we don't have a copy of the actual map, the judges themselves say: “Notwithstanding the movement or potential movement of 146,000 persons, we made as few changes to the current districts as possible." A description of the alterations is available at the link. Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann says he won't oppose the plan, and it also sounds like the judges declined to make a particular change regarding Adams County that Dem Rep. Bennie Thompson objected to, so it seems like everyone is okay with this map.
• NC Redistricting: A three-judge panel hearing a pair of consolidated lawsuits against North Carolina's new redistricting plans refused to set the case on a fast track, as plaintiffs had requested. I'm guessing that means that the the 2012 elections will have to go forward under the maps passed by the legislature earlier this year, because the filing deadline is Feb. 29, and the court declined to set a trial for Feb. 2, so presumably they don't intend to resolve things until the primaries are well underway. Of course, timing didn't stop the Supreme Court from utterly derailing the elections in Texas, but a trial court may not be as bold.
• PA Redistricting: How pathetic are Democrats? This pathetic: The new GOP congressional redistricting plan sailed through the state House on Tuesday afternoon by a 136-61 margin, with just eight Republicans voting no and 36 Democrats voting aye. Seeing as there are 112 Republicans in the chamber, the plan would have passed even without a single Democrat's support—yet three Dem Reps. shamefully whipped votes in favor of it. Bob Brady and Mike Doyle's arm-twisting came to light on Monday, but as the final vote neared, we learned of a letter Jason Altmire sent to every Democrat in the state House, hustling for more votes in favor of the map. For supporting a brutal Republican gerrymander for purely selfish, base reasons, these names will not soon be forgotten. In any event, the map now goes to GOP Gov. Tom Corbett, who will surely sign it.
• RI Redistricting: Rhode Island's redistricting commission voted on Monday to recommend the newsiest congressional proposal to the legislature, known as Proposal F (PDFs: statewide, Providence detail). Despite a whole lot of complaining by Rep. Jim Langevin's camp that the map was harming him in order to help freshman (and fellow Democrat) David Cicilline, the performance numbers have barely budged:
According to performance numbers obtained by The Fix, by dropping Burrillville and swapping certain parts of Providence with Langevin, Cicilline’s 1st district moves from a 65 percent Obama district to one that would have gone 66 percent for the president, shifting more than 1 percent in Obama’s favor. Langevin’s 2nd district, meanwhile, drops from a 61 percent Obama district to one that would have gone about 60 percent for the president.
This map isn't necessarily final, since the legislature can amend it, but there's been no indication that anyone wants to tinker any further. And as Aaron Blake points out, even if independent Gov. Lincoln Chafee wants to veto the map, Democrats hold hefty super-majorities and could likely over-ride.
• Chicago Redistricting: We just launched our second redistricting contest: remapping the city of Chicago! Click the link for complete details and contest rules. And yes, there will be babka. (We'll also be handing out long-overdue prizes to the winners of our prior two contests as well.)