This is my first Senate ranking, so bear with me! The rankings are based on likeliness to flip from the incumbent party to the challenging party.
1. Nebraska
Incumbent Ben Nelson (D) retiring
Republican Candidates - Jon Bruning, Deb Fischer, Pat Flynn, Don Stenberg, and Spencer Zimmerman
Well it's official, Ben Nelson's retiring! While it's slightly disappointing that we are definitively losing a Senate seat, had this not been my first Senate ranking Nebraska would have been at the top before the retirement. This will probably be for the best. It frees up money on both sides and shrinks the playing field. Not to mention the Senate Democratic caucus will be free of it's most conservative member.
Democrats don't have many good options here. Former Senator Bob Kerrey has been mentioned as a possible candidate and he hasn't shot down the idea. He had better favorables than Nelson, but even if he were to jump in I believe this would still be the most likely seat to flip.
2. Massachusetts
Incumbent Scott Brown (R)
Democratic Candidates - Marisa DeFranco, Jim King, and Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren has been a meteoric candidate. No one expected her to be as great of a candidate as she has been. The most recent poll commissioned by the conservative Boston Herald has her leading Scott Brown 49-42. Pre-announcement she trailed Brown 35-44. In three months Warren went from being mostly unknown and trailing Brown, to clearing the Democratic primary field and raising more money than Wall Streets favorite Senator.
It has become increasingly difficult to picture a path to victory for Brown. He's probably the most overrated candidate in a generation. Never mind the fact that he barely interacts with his constituents, while Warren has been out almost every day meeting with the people of Massachusetts. She will not be out worked. I just hope Republicans and Wall Street don't recognize that this race is a lost cause and continue to pour money into it. Remember Meg Whitman if your concerned about a candidate outspending.
3. North Dakota
Incumbent Kent Conrad (D) retiring
Democratic Candidates - Heidi Heitkamp and Tom Potter
Republican Candidate - Rick Berg and Duane Sand
When Kent Conrad retired the political world wrote this seat of as a loss for Democrats. There was realistically no hope of retaining the seat. Then about a month ago former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp decided to jump into the race. As soon as she jumped in the DSCC released a poll from the Mellman Group showing her with a 47-42 lead over Rick Berg. The poll also showed her with 54-25 approval rating. The poll shows Rick Berg with a 42-39 approval rating. Running for Congress and than jumping into a Senate race must not be sitting well with the people of North Dakota. At first it was easy to write it off as too optimist, but since the polls release the Republicans have not countered with their own poll. While it's still possible the poll is optimistic, it seems to be somewhat accurate.
The one problem, Heitkamp's at 47% in a state that President Obama will definitely lose. The state is known for it's ticket splitting and I have hope that she will be a great candidate. Had she not jumped into the race, this seat would have been at the top of the list with Nebraska. If Heitkamp runs a strong anti-Washington campaign, this race could possibly move down the list.
4. Nevada
Incumbent Dean Heller (R)
Democratic Candidate - Shelley Berkley
This is our next best pick up opportunity after Massachusetts. Shelley Berkley is a strong recruit and a great fundraiser. She's come from behind in polling and has opened up a small lead over Dean Heller.
It's hard to see how he wins in the end. President Obama will assuredly win the state and like I previously state, Berkley is a strong candidate. She has consistently out raised him and has survived op-ed hit jobs on her. She also has the benefit of being from Clark county, the largest population base, in which she will probably run up the votes and pull out the victory. The final piece of the puzzle will be Harry Reid's machine. He cleared the primary field for Berkley and will turnout the vote for her
5. Montana
Incumbent Jon Tester (D)
Republican Candidate - Denny Rehberg
The most static race in the country, along with Virginia. Denny Rehberg has consistently held a 2 point lead over Jon Tester. The last poll showed Tester with better approvals than Rehberg. The saving grace for this race is they are both Washington politicians, Rehberg more so. It has also been said that Rehberg is very unlikable and will shine as the race heats up. Tester is a strong retail politician and in the end I expect him to pull out a victory, however narrow it may or may not be.
6. Missouri
Incumbent Claire McCaskill (D)
Republican Candidates - Todd Akin, John Brunner, and Sarah Steelman
A race in which the Republican primary will be brutal and the winner will come out with little money and probable lowered approvals. Claire McCaskill has consistently held a lead over the Republican field. She is also a very adept fundraiser. She will amass a large war chest to pummel the close to broke winner of the Republican primary. Not to mention the Republican candidates aren't the greatest recruits.
7. Wisconsin
Incumbent Herb Kohl (D) retiring
Democratic Candidate - Tammy Baldwin
Republican Candidates - Jeff Fitzgerald, Frank Lasee, Mark Neumann, John Schiess, and Tommy Thompson
A marquee race, this seat will undoubtedly see millions poured into it. Tammy Baldwin, a powerhouse candidate, managed to keep the primary field cleared. She has been able to raise a lot of money and has been partaking in the same campaign theme as Elizabeth Warren. Which is bound to resonate in Wisconsin. The Republican primary will probably be the most brutal in the country. Whomever emerges will be weakened considerably.
The one candidate that could make this a race, Tommy Thompson, will face stiff and hostile competition in the primary. Neumann and Fitzgerald will tear him apart as well as each other. It's very possible that Thompson will not emerge from the primary, but if he does he will be damaged and will have little money. All the while Baldwin will have amassed a large amount of money and will no doubt have built a populist image of herself through out the state.
8. Virginia
Incumbent Jim Webb (D) retiring
Democratic Candidate - Tim Kaine
Republican Candidate - George Allen
Another static race for some time. Tim Kaine is a popular former Governor facing racist and former Senator George Allen. Two recent polls from PPP and Quinnipiac show competing views of the race. PPP shows Kaine leading 47-42 and Quinnipiac shows Allen leading 44-42. Just based on the past month of news from Virginia I find the PPP poll to be much more believable.
Kaine is apart of a string of strong Democratic recruits. He has consistently out raised Allen. In the end it's very difficult to perceive how the people of Virginia send someone to Washington they rejected just 6 years.
9. New Mexico
Incumbent Jeff Bingaman (D) retiring
Democratic Candidates - Hector Balderas and Martin Heinrich
Republican Candidates - John Sanchez and Heather Wilson
Martin Heinrich holds decent leads over John Sanchez and Heather Wilson. He is a safer bet in the Democratic primary. Hector Balderas holds a lead over Sanchez, but is tied with Wilson. The Republican primary, will again be brutal. Which they cannot afford in this state. In the end I expect Heinrich to win the primary and the general comfortably.
10. Hawaii
Incumbent Daniel Akaka (D) retiring
Democratic Candidates - Ed Case and Mazie Hirono
Republican Candidate - Linda Lingle
Ed Case can't get a clue. He keeps coming back to run for office and no one wants him. Mazie Hirono a popular former Lt. Governor and current Congresswoman is the favored candidate of everyone under the sun. Hirono faced Case in the 2002 Gubernatorial Democratic primary. A race in which she won. He left her with little money and she lost to former Governor Linda Lingle.
Recently Linda Lingle jumped into the Senate race. A PPP poll released soon after showed her trailing Hirono 48-42, but leading Case 45-43. Killing Case's only argument that he was more electable. These numbers are no doubt Lingle's high point, a post announcement bonce.
Luckily Case will not win the primary and Lingle has very little chance of winning. Recent reports have suggested that she is amassing a lot money. No doubt Republicans are throwing away money. She is a strong recruit, but that won't matter in a state that President Obama will win in the 60%. This race will probably drop off the list once the next poll is released.