Friday punditry. Keep track of the latest developments in Egypt in the mothership diary.
Mohamed Elbaradei:
Many, particularly in the West, have bought the Mubarak regime’s fiction that a democratic Egypt will turn into chaos or a religious state, abrogate the fragile peace with Israel and become hostile to the West. But the people of Egypt — the grandmothers in veils who have dared to share Tahrir Square with army tanks, the jubilant young people who have risked their lives for their first taste of these new freedoms — are not so easily fooled.
The United States and its allies have spent the better part of the last decade, at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars and countless lives, fighting wars to establish democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now that the youth of Cairo, armed with nothing but Facebook and the power of their convictions, have drawn millions into the street to demand a true Egyptian democracy, it would be absurd to continue to tacitly endorse the rule of a regime that has lost its own people’s trust.
Roger Cohen:
The potential for greater violence in Egypt has risen. In a 17-minute speech on Thursday night, Mubarak acknowledged mistakes, promised reform and said, almost in passing, that his vice president, Omar Suleiman, was now in charge. But he defied the demand of protesters that he quit. Once again, he gave the impression he had not heard them at all.
If Egypt’s battered authorities had set out to choreograph treacherous muddle, they could scarcely have done a better job.
Steve Brusk, CNN:
Ari Fleisher at forum with former White House press secretaries at GW: don't tell anyone but I think Pres. Obama is handling Egypt well
Nicholas Kristof:
This is of course manifestly unacceptable to the Egyptian people. Mubarak’s speech was a striking reminder of the capacity of dictators to fool themselves and see themselves as indispensable. If he thinks that his softer tone will win any support, he’s delusional. As he was speaking, the crowd in Tahrir was shouting "Irhal!" or "Go!" And the Egyptian state media — from television to Al Ahram, the dominant newspaper — have been turning against Mubarak, so he’s losing control even of his own state apparatus. An Arab friend of mine who has met Mubarak many, many times describes him as "a stubborn old man," and that seems exactly the problem right now. UPDATE: Suleiman just spoke as well, praising Mubarak and asking the youth of Egypt to go home and stop watching satellite television. Only possible conclusion: he’s delusional, too. ...
It was interesting that Mubarak tried to push the nationalism button and blame outside forces (meaning the United States) for trying to push him out. That won’t succeed, but it’s actually beneficial to America, giving us credit for siding with people power that I don’t think we actually deserve.
Bill Press:
What Republicans can't admit is that Obama has succeeded in helping bring democracy to the Arab world where President George W. Bush failed. And he did so not by launching another long, bloody and costly war, but by supporting the aspirations of the Egyptian people, who used Facebook, Twitter and cell phones, not guns, to overthrow their government without firing a shot.
Bush spent billions on bombs. A laptop would have been cheaper and more effective.
More discussion in ThisisMyTime's diary.
Eugene Robinson:
While Egyptians still respect the military, they also take notice of the lavish privileges that officers enjoy. This is another element of Mubarak's system: the elevation of the military into an elite caste. Officers live in comfortable, well-stocked compounds that are beyond the imagination of most Egyptians. Upon retirement, the brass look forward to having a stake in the military's expanding empire of commercial enterprises. The Egyptian people will ultimately have to decide whether this largesse should continue.
Tom Jensen/PPP:
Whatever bounce in his polling numbers John Boehner got from becoming Speaker didn't last very long. When PPP started its weekly polling for Daily Kos last month Boehner's approval rating was a positive 35/28 spread. Within two weeks that was already on the decline to just barely favorable territory at 33/31 and now he's already in the red with the portion of voters who approve of him down to 28% and his disapproval at 30%.
There are two main reasons for that overall drop. The first is that independents in particular have become quickly disenchanted with him. He's had a 13 point drop in his net approval with them over the last four weeks- after starting out at a positive 34/30, he's now down to a negative 23/32. The second is that there are already indications that his performance is making the Republican base antsy. He started out at a 56/15 approval with them and has already dropped a net ten points to 49/18. We've long wondered if a decidedly establishment figure like Boehner would be able to keep an increasing empowered and anti-establishment base happy and cracks are already beginning to show.
Reid Wilson: Another dreary column about how wonderful the DLC was. So wonderful, in fact that it failed and doesn't exist anymore:
"They put on some interesting stuff, and they have some interesting ideas, but it’s a problem because it begins sounding like what they’re doing is that they’re not in it for the intellectualism but in it for how do we compromise with the Far Right, and you can’t compromise with the Far Right," former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean said. "Their politics [wasn’t] very exciting to the base."
National Journal:
Soon after Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., announced today that he would not seek reelection to a fourth term, party operatives began shoring up lists of potential candidates for the 2012 open seat race and one name swirls intriguingly -- albeit highly speculatively -- among the prospective Democrats: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords.