In the beginning...there weren't a lot of people. If you are a creationist...there were two. If you believe in evolution...there were still only two...at some point.
In the beginning evolution was ruthless and dispassionate; survival of the fittest.
As humanity evolved people began helping other humans hunt, gather, keep warm. The population grew and lifespans increased...a trend that hasn't really stopped since.
Earth: Population Overload
Consider this:
In 10,000 BC there were only an estimated 1,000,000 humans competing for food, shelter, and mates. It took until 1800 for the combined population of the world to exceed one billion people. 12,000 years to add 999,000,000 people. We'll crack 7 billion soon. 12000 years for a billion...200 to add six billion more. Estimates are that we crack 9 billion by 2050. But that is a lowball estimate if trends don't change...we added 1 billion in just the last decade. 12000 years to hit a billion; now it only takes a decade...and the planet isn't getting any bigger.
A growing, more affluent population competing for ever scarcer resources could make for an "unrecognizable" world by 2050, researchers warned at a major US science conference Sunday.
The United Nations has predicted the global population will reach seven billion this year, and climb to nine billion by 2050, "with almost all of the growth occurring in poor countries, particularly Africa and South Asia," said John Bongaarts of the non-profit Population Council.
To feed all those mouths, "we will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in the last 8,000," said Jason Clay of the World Wildlife Fund at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
The scary part of that quote from this story is:
"we will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in the last 8,000,"
We have some problems facing future food production. Water and land. Africa suffers drought after drought and is completely dependent on groundwater and rain due to the absence of large permanent glaciers. The Western US is quickly increasing its population while reducing farm land. The population growth also puts a strain on the water supply. Aquifers are being depleted while even the great western reservoirs are unable to keep up with demand except in above average snow years. In CO more and more water is being demanded for the Eastern slope and plains states. Water diversion is nothing new but more water into the Platte and Arkansas drainages means less water for the Colorado River...and by extension UT, AZ, NM, CA, NV and cities Phoenix, Las Vegas and Los Angeles. The Colorado may never make it back to its former delta in Northern Mexico. Imagine if the southern nations of Africa redirected enough water out of the Nile to dry up the Nile delta. The Colorado, at one time, was a mighty river...a river it would have been impossible to imagine not containing enough water for the people that relied on it. Well, that notion is wrong.
California's water problems are world problems.
California is the nation’s leading agricultural producer and has been for the last 60 years, contributing more than half of the nation’s fruit, nut and vegetable production. California is also the nation’s leading exporter of agricultural goods. Agriculture provides 1.1 million jobs, and generates $27.6 billion dollars in sales, plus another $100 billion more in related economic activity. Many counties in California rely primarily on agriculture for their economic survival. Being a leader in agricultural production takes a lot of water, and so not surprisingly, the biggest user of water in California is the agricultural industry.
If CA has a bad year world food prices go up but there is probably enough surplus to pick up the slack. If CA has a bad decade as far as drought or water gets called from reservoirs to sustain cities rather than farms...both the US and the world will suffer from the shortages. And that is at current population levels.
Desertification is also of a concern, not just in the US but around the world.
"The greatest risk of desertification (7.6 out of 10 on a scale produced using various desertification indicators) is in the subtropical desert regions – North Africa, the countries of the Middle East, Australia, South West China and the western edge of South America"
Desertification doesn't just directly affect farmland:
Some 10 to 20% of drylands are already degraded, and ongoing desertification threatens the world’s poorest populations and the prospects of poverty reduction.
Indirectly, desertification puts further strain on "healthy" watersheds and farmland. Farmers and science are going to be a united front in trying to increase yields per acre...by any means necessary. Drought resistant crops, pest resistance, better fertilizers, better pesticides, better growth hormones for livestock. Crops that now need vast acreages to produce will become faded memories or relegated to small "boutique" farms that can produce these now luxury crops in small quantities. Those crops will be replaced by crops that can flourish despite being crowded together. The progress we've made on reintroducing organic farming may be lost due to necessary demand. Imagine a billion people in the United States and then try and imagine where the food comes from...and the price of that food.
It isn't a question of if we can...we probably can provide food for 9 billion people...maybe even more...but doing so would require world cooperation. (Cooperation that hasn't been forthcoming on climate change). Large areas of land with access to water would have to be reapportioned for only farming...in Russia, China, the US, South America.
Concessions may have to be made. Water rationing? Food rationing? Less land dedicated to conservation and private development? Cities that condense as opposed to sprawling outward?
And who will sacrifice? The rich? Will they eat less? Waste less? Or will the burden of water and food shortages fall on the shoulders of those who can least afford them? More "shared sacrifice"!
New and better Democrats? How about new and better humans...worldwide? Humans who realize that fossil fuels must be replaced. Humans that conserve land for farming, not private game reserves. Humans that conserve water so that depleted aquifers have a chance to recharge. Humans that don't rely on religious dogma to guide their views on contraception. The days of believing that "god gave man dominion over the land and animals" need to fade into the past. The idea that "God will provide" needs to be exchanged for "we must provide". When the oceans rise and the deserts expand and the oil is gone and food and water are scarce...which God is going to tend to 9+ billion people? Allah? Jehovah? A "pagan" god like Odin or Zeus? One of the Hindu gods? And what happens if no miracle comes? Do we wait longer to realize God's mercy? This isn't a referendum on religion...this is a referendum on human intelligence. Do we learn from our mistakes and pay attention to the science and statistics of probability...and change our ways now? Or do we hope that someday we gain massive tracts of fertile land in Greenland and Antarctica?
Loss of glaciers, desertification, melting permafrost, destruction of rain forests, depletion of natural resources, population growth. It isn't that just one of those things is happening...it is that they are all happening. It is a perfect storm of human greed and procrastination...humanity's depraved indifference to the soundness of its spaceship. Sadly half the world's population has missed out on the last century of bounty...and about the time they are ready to catch up...there won't be enough to go around.
Oh, and just when you think the future might be bleak with undertones of grim...you ask yourself, "What are the unemployment numbers going to look like in 40 years when there could be 2, 3, 4 billion more people sharing the globe?"