As one should expect, there is still a relative trickle of polling data for the 2012 cycle. Given that the elections are still 21 months away, that makes sense.
That said, we are starting to get a general sense of where the electorate is, based on the smattering of polls that have been released thus far. And while one pollster has dominated the zone this year (and amazingly, it isn't the House of Rasmussen), their results have been more or less buttressed by other pollsters.
Here are some early conclusions, some of which will be explored in more depth as we get into the numbers:
- President Obama's job approval and favorability numbers, while they have come off of the mat, are still relatively mediocre.
- His re-election prospects, however, remain strong because his likely GOP challengers have approval/fav numbers that are even worse.
- There is still some voter dissatisfaction, and it appears (on the Senate level) to be creating fewer "safe seats".
- Overall, it seems clear the picture emerging of the 2012 electorate is one that, while perhaps not as amenable to Democrats as the 2008 electorate, is not even close to the lopsided 2010 electorate.
With those general themes in hand, let's hit the specific data:
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
Arizona (PPP): President Obama's nine-point defeat here in 2008 left little clue to the true state of Arizona politics, given that GOP rival John McCain hailed from the state. PPP is the first to take the temperature of the Grand Canyon State in a neutral environment. On balance, they find numbers that are only marginally better for the Democrats, suggesting that Arizona could be a tough get for the Democrats.
Unless, of course, the GOP nominee is a certain former half-term Governor from Alaska. As PPP (and others) have routinely found in their surveys, Sarah Palin could put the President over 400 electoral votes, potentially, given her massive unpopularity. She trails Obama in Arizona by eight points. Meanwhile, Huckabee and Romney keep Arizona in the red column, albeit by slightly narrower margins than McCain (4-6 points). The voters of Arizona are deadlocked as to whether they prefer Obama or former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
California (PPP): Indeed, as the first two entries would attest, our polling partners at PPP have opened the 2012 cycle with a bang, already hitting most of the competitive states in the Union just three months into the cycle. As a result, they are starting to hit some states where polling confirms that the status quo is intact, if nothing else.
The Golden State is one such example. A rare oasis for the Democrats on Election Day 2010, the state's 55 electoral votes seem comfortably in the President's column, according to this week's data. If there is any surprise here, it is that Southern evangelical Mike Huckabee (54-39) actually does better than former "moderate" Mitt Romney (56-36). Notably, while both are down markedly, they both do considerably better than John McCain's twenty-four point margin of defeat in 2008.
Florida (Quinnipiac): One of the Q poll's first forays into the cycle lands them in the Sunshine State, where they find that President Obama cannot necessarily count on the state's steadily increasing electoral vote tally. Doing things a bit differently, the Q poll measures the President against a "generic Republican". While some decry this measurement (saying that it allows voters to compare their president to the ideal Republican in their own minds, rather than the actual potential nominees), I see no problem with using it this early in the game. By that metric, President Obama trails the GOP's phantom standard-bearer by two points (42-40). This tracks the President's approval and generic re-elect numbers, which are barely underwater.
One could, I suppose, classify this as good news for the President. Given how big a disaster the state of Florida was for Democrats in the 2010 cycle, being down two (especially paired against a generic foe) isn't all that bad.
Georgia (20/20 Insight): Let's open the examination of this poll with a quick caveat--I am not familiar with this pollster, and I have nothing in my database suggesting that they released data in 2006 and 2008. Might be a new outfit, or I suppose it could be an established outfit that was renamed.
That said, the numbers here are pretty interesting. First, on the GOP primary, we see a true logjam, with (count 'em!) five Republican contenders within eight points of one another. Joining the traditional four (Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin) are pizza magnate Herman Cain, who if memory serves hails from the state of Georgia, which might explain his presence in the mix.
In the general election trial heats, meanwhile, this poll echoes recent polling. Particularly on this point: if Sarah Palin can wrest away the GOP nomination, she will offer President Obama the first true landslide Presidential election in a generation. She is the only GOP competitor to trail Obama in the right-leaning Peach State, although Obama remains marginally competitive with the other three Republicans tested. He leads Palin by four (47-43), and trails the balance of the field by margins of 2-6 points.
Nebraska (PPP): While new polling out of the Cornhusker State makes clear that Barack Obama is incredibly unlikely to carry the state (heck, even Palin beats him there), he looks poised to repeat his effort from 2008, where he wrested away one of the state's electoral votes by claiming the Omaha-based 2nd district. While Obama trails the GOP field by margins ranging from 1 (Palin) to 13 (Huckabee), he leads all comers in the 2nd district by healthy margins. At present, Romney comes closest to the President in the region, and even he trails Obama by nine.
Of course, there is a caveat there, which is taking 1/3rd of a statewide sample means that the margins of error for the CD-by-CD numbers in Nebraska are bound to be considerably higher.
South Carolina (PPP): The Palmetto State was a single-digit GOP win in 2008, and this PPP poll suggests that the same scenario is in place for 2012. The two presumptive GOP frontrunners (Huckabee and Romney) lead by 6-7 points over President Obama, while Obama actually leads the others in the front pack (Gingrich and Palin). That Obama leads Gingrich, a Georgia native, in neighboring South Carolina is nothing short of stunning.
Perhaps surprisingly, PPP finds little appetite for a Jim DeMint candidacy in his home state. He only leads Obama by a handful of points (47-45), although he would have an edge in the state's important early primary. If DeMint stays on the sidelines, Mike Huckabee is the leader among state Republicans.
South Dakota (PPP): Not surprisingly, if there is anywhere in America where the electorate is ready for a John Thune revolution, it is in his home state of South Dakota. Relegated deep into the second tier elsewhere, the young Senator has a solid following back home, and is the only Republican with a double-digit edge over President Obama according to PPP's latest numbers there.
Perhaps most interesting is the fact that two other names in the first-tier (Gingrich and Palin) actually trail the President in this state, which has gone reliably Republican since the LBJ landslide in 1964. Romney and Huckabee do better, but they are far from dominant, scoring six-point leads over the President.
IN OTHER NEWS...
- This week's most eye-popping hedge on presidential ambitions? It's gotta be the fact that rookie Senator Rand Paul is refusing to rule it out. But, here's the question: if his dad runs (and keeps his streak alive), could we really get father vs. son?!
- While the point is undoubtedly a valid one, doesn't this tweet from a GOP pollster sound an awful lot like a guy rooting for people to be out of work in America?
- The National Journal posts an intriguing piece about the inside players in New Hampshire and Iowa that Republican contenders and pretenders would do well to harness.
THE RACE FOR THE SENATE
Arizona (PPP): Class of 1994 incumbent Jon Kyl looks like he is a reasonably safe bet to win a fourth term, if he wants it. PPP polls the state and finds only former state Attorney General Terry Goddard lurking close to Kyl (trailing the incumbent by a 50-40 margin). Other potential Democratic challengers fall behind by 12-21 point margins. The big story out of Arizona this week, however, is increasing speculation that Kyl may retire at the end of this term. Should that happen, expect quirky libertarian Congressman Jeff Flake to jump in, possibly joined by former colleague John Shadegg.
California (PPP): Given that Senator Barbara Boxer just notched a double-digit win in an awful Democratic year nationally, it seems logical that her Senate mate, Dianne Feinstein, appears safe for 2012. A new PPP poll shows that only former Congressman Tom Campbell (who has always been viewed as the "moderate alternative" in any race he has run statewide) prevents a blowout, and even he trails by fourteen points (51-37). In a sign of how ultimately unelectable the twin millionaire nominees from 2010 have become, both Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman would trail Feinstein by 20 points (55-35) if the election were held today.
Florida (Quinnipiac): This race is the clearest sign that the target list might be wider than normal in 2012. On paper, Nelson does not seem incredibly endangered. His approval ratings are historically decent (an approval spread usually in the +10 to +20 range), for example. Yet, when paired with a "Generic Republican" challenger, Nelson finds himself staked to an early lead of only five points (41-36). His re-elect numbers are a bit better (43-33), suggesting that Nelson would still remain the betting favorite for November.
Nebraska (PPP): PPP confirms something that has long been suspected--even repeated acts of fealty to the right-wing are no longer enough to save Ben Nelson's seat in the United States Senate. He trails either of the two Republican frontrunners battling to replace him in the Senate. When paired with state Attorney General Jon Bruning, Nelson is down eleven (50-39). Nelson does slightly better against 2000 opponent (and current state treasurer) Don Stenberg. Still, however, Nelson trails the Republican by four points (45-41).
IN OTHER NEWS...
- Let the (potential) teabagging begin! Republican state Treasurer Richard Mourdock appears poised to offer a primary challenge to longtime Indiana Senator Richard Lugar.
- The most interesting game of "He's out! No...wait..." might have come from Michigan this week. When former Congressman Peter Hoekstra took a DC advising gig, that immediately led the DC press to conclude that he would not be contemplating a Senate bid against second-term Democrat Debbie Stabenow. Hoekstra immediately let it be known that his decision to hook with with this firm was not an impediment to a Senate bid, which he was still refusing to rule out. So there.
- With well-liked Congressman Chris Murphy and Sec. of State Susan Bysiewicz already in the mix, it looks like we will know by month's end about a third Democrat sniffing out that open-seat race in Connecticut: Congressman Joe Courtney. Meanwhile, another potential candidate has set a timetable, as Republican Rob Simmons says he will make his own decision on the race by next month.
- Not a huge surprise, but one Senate prospect took himself out of the running this week: Minnesota's Norm Coleman. Coleman was considered a longshot to face Democrat Amy Klobuchar, whose polling has been awesome. In fact, Klobuchar's numbers have been so impressive in her first term that is becoming increasingly likely that she will avoid a serious challenge in 2012.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE OF REPS
SD-AL (PPP): Given that redistricting is likely to play Hell with district demographics, don't expect a lot of House polling for the next several months. That said, we actually do get a poll this week, and out of a district that is certain not to change in 2012: the sole at-large district in South Dakota. The headline here: Democrat Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin would be at least an even-money bet against the Republican that tossed her from office in November. Newly minted GOP Rep. Kristi Noem actually trails Herseth-Sandlin in the PPP poll, albeit by a single point (46-45). Noem defeated the Democrat by just over two points in November, meaning that the result of the poll do not fall terribly far from November's results. It is still unclear, however, that the former three-term Democratic Congresswoman is interested in a rematch.
IN OTHER NEWS...
- Politico engages in a biennial parlor game of looking at the Q4 fundraising reports and looking at potential retirees based on meager hauls. Among the names on the list: Republicans Jerry Lewis and Roscoe Bartlett, and Democrats Dale Kildee and Leonard Boswell. It also points out the impact of redistricting, pointing out that contracting districts might be squeezing out folks like Louisiana's Jeff Landry and Michigan's Gary Peters.
- Cillizza's "The Fix" points out a silver lining to the decision by Republican Denny Rehberg to go after freshman Democratic Senator Jon Tester: the real possibility that the Democrats could steal a House seat in nominally red (or at least purplish-red) territory.
- Here is a head-scratcher: You come within a handful of points of knocking off a popular Democratic Congressman. Said Congressman decides to run for the Senate. What do you do? Well, if you are Connecticut Republican Sam Caligiuri, you decide to remain on the sidelines. Caligiuri announced this week that he would not run for the House in 2012.