Many folks here apparently want the Democrats of the U.S. Senate to filibuster Samuel Alito's nomination. I don't think it will happen, and I don't think it should happen. Let me briefly explain.
The main reason why a filibuster is a bad idea is that the public does not support it. I have yet to see a poll indicating majority support for the idea. The notion that the President's nominee should get an up-or-down vote is pretty popular with the public and it is hard for the Democrats to make an argument quickly enough for a TV ad to effectively beat it.
But I don't think history supports it either. When President Reagan nominated Sandra Day O'Connor, she was widely thought to be anti-Roe. No filibuster occurred even though then, as now, the Democrats were in the minority in the Senate. And when the Democrats controlled the Senate during the late 1980s, President Reagan appointed Anthony Kennedy to replace Lewis Powell. The Senate did not attempt to block that nomination, though it did follow the exhausting (for both parties) defeat of Robert Bork. Kennedy was thought to be a solid conservative, anti-Roe, at the time. Then there's the case of conservative Judge Scalia, unanimously confirmed in 1986, with the Democrats in the minority and no filibuster attempted, and GOP nominees Rehnquist and Powell. They were confirmed by a Democratic-controlled Senate in 1972.
Third, I don't think the abortion justification holds up. Alito will be, at best, the fourth vote to overrule Roe and Casey. Kennedy isn't going to change his mind, so Stevens, Breyer, Ginsburg, or Souter would have to quit or die for the possibility of overruling to be real.
Fourth, I think the Democrats should try to turn this thing to the party's advantage and argue to the public that elections do, in fact, have consequences. So, vote for Bush, get Alito. Not everyone will be upset by that, but depending on what he does, a good number might be.
Finally, I don't think that killing this nomination is worth risking the fight over the "nuclear option." Alito isn't really going to change too much at the Supreme Court. And it is in the Democrats' interest to keep the focus on the situation in Iraq, the screwing up of the War on Terror, and other administration errors rather than allowing the GOP to change the subject to the "constitutional option."
My view probably isn't too popular about now. But I don't see too much to show it's terribly far off. I predict that all Republicans will vote for Samuel Alito. The final vote will be 56-44.