Ayatollah Rafsanjani declined to stand for the position heading the Assembly of Experts, and as a result traditional conservative Ayatollah Kani will now lead the Assembly, receiving 63 of 86 votes. Rafsanjani, who has served in many capacities including President from 1989-1997, had recently been supportive of the Green Movement in the aftermath of the 2009 election debacle. While this appears to be a victory for the conservative forces associated with Ahmadinejad and Khamenei, the results from this development are far from clear and possibilities still remain. In any case, news like this about one of the most central figures in the history of the Islamic Republic will reverberate and speculation will run rampant.
The Straight View
On the surface this appears like a pretty big triumph for the government: Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, the Conservatives in the Majlis, and members of the Revolutionary Guard who advocate a more direct response to the Green Movement. They have succeeded in removing a long standing Revolutionary leader from potential opposition. With Rafsanjani out of the way, further prosecution against Mousavi and Karroubi seems more likely. Formal announcement of their arrest might come soon and the charges of "sedition" which have been bandied about the Majlis and elsewhere might come to be tested in earnest.
Rafsanjani seemed to flirt with direct support of the Green Movement in the summer of 2009, but now appears all but removed from any real position of influence. Ironically, Rafsanjani played the critical role in elevating Khamenei to the position of Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Khomeini's death in 1989. Many have written and argued that Khamenei did not have enough of a position of authority (within the Shia clergy) to ascend to Supreme Leader--Rafsanjani is largely credited with fixing that problem. Rafsanjani has a daughter who is active in the Green Movement, and a son who is out of the country, but has an arrest warrant out for him due to his suspected role in the 2009 protests.
The Alternative View
Rafsanjani's career has been marked by back room deals and his astonishing influence and wealth. While he comes from a wealthy family, and his support bankrolled some of the early Revolution, he has become even wealthier and at times has been a poster child for corruption. He lost the 2005 runoff election to Ahmadinejad handily. Many speculate that vote fraud occurred to get Ahmadinejad to the runoff past Karroubi, but winning over Rafsanjani was an easier feat. Rafsanjani may have realized that his power was slipping, but he is no fool. It is also important not to assume that the new head of the Assembly of Experts is necessarily aligned with Ahmadinejad. As Ramin Mostaghim and Meris Lutz wrote today for the LA Times:
Some within the government maintain that Kani is close politically, personally and ideologically to Rasfanjani himself. On the other hand, Kani's nephew is married to a daughter of Khamenei, and the supreme leader's office urged Kani to nominate himself as leader of the assembly.
To Iran's largely young population, Rafsanjani was probably a less than appealing figure. Ahmadinejad & Co. might find it hard to evoke another symbol of privilege as clearly known as Rafsanjani to bolster their populist claims. With Rafsanjani out, new moderate conservative leaders may step into a position of opposition without the same political baggage as Rafsanjani, and the Assembly of Experts might be able to go about their business more quietly.
Foreboding
On the other hand, the departure of Rafsanjani may be a clear sign that the last of the center is dropping out and confrontation is around the corner. Many have argued that the Islamic Republic has been slipping into a Revolutionary Guard-backed dictatorship since the 2003 Majlis elections. This may be the final phase which removes any alternative religious authority countering the top-down view of Khamenei and his Revolutionary Guard supporters. If this is the case, then dark days lie ahead and many will pay the ultimate price for a still very uncertain future.
UPDATE:
Many of the news stories currently online speculate that this development may make it so that Rafsanjani becomes a more open advocate of the Green Movement. I am not partial to this view, and here's why: Rafsanjani is not known as an articulate or principled leader--he's a deal maker. Deal makers must have something to offer, and out of power Rafsanjani has little to offer. He has no large public following. He does not have a history of brave or symbolic stands, and he certainly cannot possibly inspire young people to risk their lives in protest.