Illinois represents the only major opportunity for Democrats to pick up seats in this cycle of redistricting. As such, there is a temptation to become greedy and risk drawing a dummymander that makes Pennsylvania for the GOP look tame. This is especially the case given how robust Obama's performance was in his home state back in 2008. Going by Obama alone is highly misleading; a Obama 57%-58% seat anywhere else in the country would be a D+5 and thus probably safe enough but not in Illinois. Such a district drawn in the Chicago suburban area voted for Bush in 2004; you need an Obama +60% score before you can reasonably certain that a district narrowly voted for Kerry - that is how robust the swing from Kerry to Obama was in the Chicago suburban area back in 2008. So, every time I have attempted to draw new districts where I think Democrats can win, I have been crunching the Kerry numbers to confirm this.
So, this map attempts to achieve a 13-5 delegation split instead of the fantastic 14-4 mooted on SSP in previous diaries, which I do not believe is realistic. Given that this map, if things all went the right way, would result in the subtraction of six Republicans from the state delegation, and the addition of five Democrats, it is by any reasonable way of looking at the situation, an aggressive gerrymander.
Some other assumptions I had while drawing this map:
1) Each of the eight sitting Democratic congressmen and congresswomen have veto power over their districts (within reason). For Jerry Costello that means drawing a district that is more Democratic than his current one. But since he is the only non-Chicago area Democrat left in the delegation, it means a blank canvas for downstate which would not otherwise be the case say if Phil Hare managed to win last November.
However, in the Chicago area, it means that Lipinski has to be catered to, and it means that Quigley and Schakowsky have to stay roughly where they are, expanding outward only for population. Neither of these three will agree, I think, to any aggressive swapping out of their current turf for a significant increase of brand-new territory. Given, for example, that Schakowsky only won 61% of the vote last fall and perhaps would not play well to well-heeled suburbanites who might otherwise vote reasonably Democratic at the presidential level, I tried to keep her district particularly reasonably safe for her.
2) Only one Hispanic seat will be drawn, and if I read Roguemapper's guide to the VRA correctly, only one Hispanic seat is actually required given the disperse nature of where Hispanics live in the state and the fact that many still are not citizens or are old enough to vote. Any district that snaked from Chicago to Joliet and then on to Aurora to be Hispanic majority would probably run foul of Gingles. That being said, there is no reason you have to maintain the grotesque "ear-muffs," voted one of the 25 ugliest districts last cycle.
3) Neat districts that hue as closely as possible to township boundaries will be drawn. There is a pesky little document here called the 1970 Illinois constitution, which mandates that compact and contiguous districts be drawn. It is true this issue was litigated 10 years ago, but 10 years ago there was a bi-partisan compromise to draw the map that was litigated over. (And the congressman in question who filed a lawsuit filed only a limited one challenging the tiny tendril to his home in Saline County, not all the other grotesque tendrils in the map). By contrast, this is the very first time since the 1970 constitution where one party has total control over the districting. As such, all bets are off about the GOP not challenging a map in court under the provisions of the state constitution relevant to districting should something that looks like an aggressive gerrymander be enacted. And this would go to federal district court, where GOP appointees have a 6-3 edge. I don't believe Speaker Madigan who is an extremely risk-adverse politician, will risk this.
Luckily, the Illinois state constitution does not (as far as I am aware) preclude township and city splits; it only says that districts should be reasonably compact and contiguous. There is, for example, no Michigan language in the document about only splitting townships for population purposes. Moreover, as this diary aims to show, adhering to generally neat boundaries by no means precludes an aggressive Democratic gerrymander.
4) Finally, I forgot who said it, but an aggressive gerrymander ought to renumber everything so that it flies under the radar screen of anybody but the most observant. Illinois's districting numbering system is for the birds; there is no logical reason why the 12th is located in southern Illinois or that the 15th is well south of the 16th, and so on. Since so many districts are merged together, created as vacant open seats, etc., I though it best to renumber the entire state, starting in southern Cook and working north and west through the Chicago area for Districts 1-12, then going west and south for the rest of the state.
Follow me below and I will explain the map.
Where relevant for VRA districts I provide the racial data as follows: W = white, B = black, H = hispanic, A = Asian. For the new districts that I drew to flip Democratic either as vacant seats or as seats containing GOP incumbents where I improve our chances of defeating them, I provide the Kerry numbers along with the Obama numbers. Also, all numbers are provided in terms of two-party vote, because that was how I calculated Kerry-Bush and I didn't want to mix apples with oranges.
Chicago Metro Area
District 1 (Jesse Jackson, Jr. was formerly the IL-2), W 32.5%, B 51.9%, H 13.3%, A 0.6% Extends out to Kankakee now to remain African-American. Given that Jackson has been priming himself to be a suburban congressman for a decade now, with his advocacy for a third Chicago airport in Peotone, etc., I think this will be okay by him. Obama 79.9%, McCain 20.1%
District 2 (Bobby Rush was formerly the IL-1), W 36.8%, B 52.5%, H 7.2%. Expands into very GOP suburban areas of eastern Will County and southwestern Cook County so that Lipinski does not have to. Given that Lipinski is a favorite of Speaker Madigan's this kind of courtesy move will be made if all possible, I believe. Obama 80.4%, McCain 19.6%
District 3 (Dan Lipinski, stays the same number). Expands southward a bit for population purposes but I tried to keep it reasonable given how this is Madigan's guy. In the interests of a cleaner map, I made the connection up to Bridgeport a lot less messy looking. This raises the Hispanic percentage up to 34%, which along with a Black percentage of 6% means this district might turn majority-minority as the decade finishes if current demographic trends continue. Obama 61.0%, McCain 39.0%
District 4 (Vacant, designed to be won by former congressman Bill Foster or a Joliet-area politician). Neatly combines all the Democratic-strong suburbs together in one district instead of splitting them into three districts, as is currently the case. Obama 62.5%, McCain 37.5%, Kerry 51.5%, Bush 48.5% (Notice the 11-point swing between the two elections)
District 5 (Randy Hultgren-R vs. Judy Biggert-R vs. Peter Roskam-R, merges parts of the old IL-6, the IL-13, and the IL-14). A neat Kane and Dupage County GOP vote sink. This primary ought to be fun to watch. Obama 53.0%, McCain 47.0%, Kerry 42.8%, Bush 57.2%
District 6 (Luis Guiterrez-D, formerly the IL-4), W 23.2%, B 5.9%, H 67.3%, A 2.6%. Tried to make this more pleasant-looking on the eye than the current "ear-muffs." Obama 78.8%, 21.2% McCain
District 7 (Danny Davis-D, stays the IL-7), W 26.4%, B 52.5%, H 13.2%, 6.1%. I also tried to make this a little less horrendous looking, although it needs to dip down into the Southside to pick up enough African-Africans to remain VRA-compliant. Other changes to the district are that it now includes all of Chinatown so it is complaint with the redistricting law enacted into law just this past March. This is Obama's best district in the state. Obama 91.6%, McCain 8.4%
District 8 (Mike Quigley-D, formerly the IL-5). Expands out to the western edge of Dupage but stays roughly where it is otherwise. I think having neat districts precludes a tendril down into Chicago for either one of the two northern suburban districts. Obama 70.1%, McCain 29.9%
District 9 (Jan Schakowsky-D, stays the IL-9). Like in Quigley's case, I expanded this district to gain more population but that's it. The one legerdemain thing I did, though, was swap a bit of southern Northfield township out of the 10th in exchange for northern Evanston, including the area around Northwestern. Obama 71.1%, McCain 28.9%
District 10 (Bob Dold-R but hopefully this flips, stays the IL-10). Removed portions of Palatine township and all of Wheeling Township, and added Zion, Avon, Grant, and Lake Villa townships in Lake County. I then dipped a bit into northern Evanston to grab Northwestern University and surrounding neighborhoods. Even with the constraints of not going any further south, this district is about 2 points more Democratic than currently. We need to recruit a stellar candidate not named Dan Seals and then I think we can hang the GOP Congress's record around the neck of "moderate" Bob Dold. Obama 63.4% - McCain 36.6%, Kerry 53.7%, Bush 46.3%
District 11 (Vacant - New Seat designed to be won by a Democrat... and Joe Walsh cannot win this district, nor can Peter Roskam I think). This district starts in Wheeling Township, which was barely 50/50 in 2004 but which has become a bit bluer since then, particularly in the Buffalo Grove and Wheeling village areas. Then I take the better part of Palatine, all of Schaumburg and all of Hanover townships. These places, also, were barely won by Kerry in 2004 but they are more Democratic now. Crossing over into Kane, the district then takes all of Dundee and Elgin before snaking out to Dekalb. This district is where I trust Obama's performance more than Kerry's for believing this to be a good district. Obama 61.0%, McCain 39.0%, Kerry 50.7%, Bush 49.3%
District 12 (Joe Walsh-R, merges parts of the old IL-8 with parts of the old IL-16). We now start moving out of the suburbs and into the exurban area between Rockford and Chicago. In effect, what I did here was divide the old IL-16 in half and tacked on some of the more atrocious parts of the current IL-8 so we can make the 10th and the 11th more winnable. This is the 2nd of 5 GOP vote sinks in the state, yet still voted narrowly for Obama. Obama 51.1%, McCain 48.9%
District 13 (Don Manzullo-R vs. Aaron Schock-R, possibly also Adam Kinzinger or Randy Hultgren, combines parts of the old IL-11, IL-14, IL-16, and IL-18). Third GOP vote sink, winding carefully around the Democratic areas that I am placing in the 14th and the 15th. Obama 47.0%, McCain 53.0%
District 14 (Bobby Schilling-R but hopefully not much longer, old IL-17). Takes in most of Rockford then follows the Mississippi down to grab in the lean-Democratic counties, then dips eastward again to pick up Peru, Lasalle, Ottawa, and Streator in Lasalle County. Obama 58.8%, McCain 41.2%, Kerry 51.8%, Bush 48.2%
District 15 (Tim Johnson-R technically although I suspect he will run in the nearby 18th). Takes in the southern 3/4 of Peoria, reasonably friendly areas of next-door Tazewell County, the western (but better) 2/3 of Normal and Bloomington, Champaign and Urbana, Decatur, and most of Springfield except for its really atrocious southern and southwestern edges (where Kerry just got creamed). It also contains Mason and Fulton Counties. This district is pretty good considering that it has to contain Dewitt and Piatt Counties to maintain its relative "neatness." I feel reasonably confident about it because none of the area GOP congressmen are moderate enough to appeal to the voters of this district. At the same time, this district depends on students turning out, which will be a perennial challenge. Then again, we have nothing down here at present, so we might as well try. We have nothing to lose in drawing a district like this. Obama 58.9%, McCain 41.1%, Kerry 51.1%, Bush 48.9%
District 16 (John Shimkus-R, formerly the IL-19) The 4th GOP vote sink. Shimkus represented much of this area during the 1990s. Obama 44.9%, McCain 55.1%
District 17 (Jerry Costello-D, formerly the IL--12). Removes GOP-leaning Williamson and Franklin Counties and expands northward to Jersey, Calhoun, and the better, more Democratic southern halves of Macoupin and Montgomery counties. Also adds in Edwardsville. These changes make this district about 1-2 points more Democratic than it is now, about the best that can be done while remaining "neat." Obama 57.2%, McCain 42.8%, Kerry 52.6%, Bush 47.4%
District 18 (Adam Kinzinger-R, I highly suspect also Tim Johnson-R will run here). Includes all the rural counties of eastern and southeastern Illinois, the part of the state where Democrats go to die. This district contains almost all the counties that Barack Obama even lost in his 2004 Senate campaign. Obama 43.6%, McCain 56.4%
So, to recap....
IL-1 Jackson
IL-2 Rush
IL-3 Lipinski
IL-4 Foster or some Joliet Democrat (Dem +1)
IL-5 Hultgren/Roskam/Biggert (Dem +1, GOP -2)
IL-6 Guiterrez
IL-7 Davis
IL-8 Quigley
IL-9 Schakowsky
IL-10 Dold in a D+7ish district, I think he's toast now (Dem +2, GOP -3)
IL-11 Vacant but designed to elect a Democrat (Dem +3, GOP -3)
IL-12 Walsh
IL-13 Manzullo/Walsh (Dem +3, GOP -4)
IL-14 Schilling in a more compact but also slightly more Democratic district than the current 17th (Dem +4, GOP -5)
IL-15 Vacant but designed to elect a Democrat (Dem +5, GOP -5)
IL-16 Shimkus
IL-17 Costello
IL-18 Kinzinger/Johnson (Dem +5, GOP -6)
Current delegation: 8 Democrats - 11 Republicans
Expected delegation: 13 Democrats - 5 Republicans, although truth in advertising would probably label this a 11-5-2 map pending the 11th and the 15th swinging our direction. With Obama at the top the ticket, however, I believe they will.