Yesterday, I posted my first attempt at a relatively clean-looking map that probably achieved a 13-5 split in the delegation after 2012. Some of the districts were a bit shaky, however. After some feedback, today I tried to see, with a few more splits here and there but still nothing too egregious, whether we could secure the seats a bit more. I believe I have done this.
Link to my old map...
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Again, I have renumbered most of the districts from the current plan, to try to move through the state more logically. Where relevant, I provide the VRA data. For most districts where Kerry numbers are not important, I have just the Obama numbers, but for the new seats I created to flip Democratic, I also provide my hand-count figure of Kerry-Bush (both Obama and Kerry are percentage of two-party vote excluding third parties).
Chicago Metro Area, Districts 1-11
IL-1 Jackson Jr.-D (was the former IL-2) 51.6% Black, 32.7% White, 13.4% Hispanic. Obama 80.0%
IL-2 Rush-D (was the former IL-1) 52.1% Black, 38.0% White, 6.6% Hispanic. Obama 79.3%
IL-3 Lipinski-D (stays the same number) 54.8% White, 34.3% Hispanic, 7.8% Black. Obama 63.5% My reading of the VRA and the political situation in Springfield with Lipinski being Madigan's guy, leads me to believe they will draw Lipinski a very similar seat to the one he has now.
IL-4 Vacant (new seat) Obama 62.5%, Kerry 51.5%. I believe former Congressman Bill Foster will run in this seat and return to Congress.
IL-5 Roskam-R vs. Hultgren-R vs. Biggert-R (although she will probably retire) (combines Republican-leaning portions of the old IL-6, IL-13, and IL-14. Obama 52.0%, Kerry 41.8% It is possible to draw a McCain vote sink in the suburban area, but this map looks "reasonable" while slyly aiding my new IL-4 and IL-11 districts in being more Democratic. Democratic Dekalb unfortunately ends up in this district because there was better territory for the 11th to go to. I suppose a tendril could always be drawn connecting it to the rest of the 14th, but that would then be relatively ugly.
IL-6 Guiterrez-D (was the old IL-4 66.8% Hispanic, 24.3% White, 5.3% The C-shape is unavoidable given the fact that African-Americans live right between the two major blocks of Hispanics in Chicago, but I think there's no need whatever for the horrendous "ear-muffs." In ten years time, this district will almost certainly be partitioned in half to create a second Gingles-compliant Hispanic seat but I don't think it will occur this time around given the political dilemmas such a district would create for Lipinski (Madigan's guy in Congress) and the fact that many Hispanics still are either not citizens or of eligible age. Obama 78.8%
IL-7 Davis-D (stays the same number). 52.4% Black, 25.5% White, 14.2% Hispanc, 6.2% Asian. Obama 91.6%
IL-8 Quigley-D (was the old IL-5). Goes a bit more into Dupage County than my first version to help out my new IL-11, but still nothing too extreme looking. Obama 70.0%
IL-9 Schakowsky-D (stays the same number). In addition to yesterday's legerdemain whereby I traded about 25k of northern Evanston for 25k of lean-Republican southern Northfield Township, this district now goes a bit into southern Wheeling to soak up all the relatively GOP precincts there so the 11th can have all the really good Democratic ones. Obama 69.9%
IL-10 Dold-R (stays the same number). A bit more aggressive than yesterday with the geography but I still tried to keep it relatively neat. Obama 64.4%, Kerry 54.6% I don't know any national Republicans capable of holding down a 54-45 Kerry district that has gotten bluer over time! I perhaps overdid it here, but like Constance Morella's former MD-8, we need to coax suburban liberals into finally ditching the notion that their local Republican isn't bad.
IL-11 Vacant (new seat). I improved this district, oddly enough, by not going out to grab Dekalb. Instead, I grab very Democratic areas of southern Bloomingdale Township while leaving the GOP turf in that township to Quigley to negate with his Chicago base. Likewise, I grab the more Democratic parts of Elk Grove and Wheeling townships, leaving the relatively more Republican turf there to Schakowsky to negate with her lakefront base. Finally, I take the eastern edge of Palatine Township, which is actually decent, while surrendering the bulk of the township to the 12th. All this has the effect of nudging up the Democratic performance to the point where I am reasonably certain a Democratic candidate would win this district, even in the 2010 bloodbath. Obama 62.5%, Kerry 51.2% (because of demographic shifts Kerry 51.2% is perhaps a bit too pessimistic now - there's no way that Schaumburg, Hanover, Wheeling and Elk Grove, all 50/50 back in 2004 are so now).
Northern Illinois, Districts 12-14
IL-12 Walsh-R (new seat merging parts of the old IL-8 and IL-16) Little altered since yesterday's version except I decided to be more aggressive in my split of Rockford (while still trying to keep it neat). I doubt, for example, that Speaker Madigan will go along with a narrow tendril going out to Bevidere in Boone County - besides it doesn't add much to the partisan score. Obama 51.0%
IL-13 Manzullo-R vs. Schock-R vs. Kinzinger-R (Oh how fun!) (new seat merging GOP portions of the old IL-11, IL-13, IL-14, IL-16, and IL-18) Moved Kinzinger's home into the district to set up a really nasty three-way primary, with the idea of getting rid of two congressmen I fear will make good statewide candidates one day if they are allowed to continue serving in office. Obama 47.0% First of 3 districts in the state where Obama lost.
IL-14 Schilling-R (was the old IL-17). Made a more optimal split of Rockford while still trying to keep it relatively neat. Goes north a bit into Machesney Park, recedes a bit out of eastern Carroll and northern Bureau, and goes a bit further into Lasalle. Obama 59.3%, Kerry 52.3%
Central and Southern Illinois, Districts 15-18
IL-15 Technically Johnson-R although he will surely move to the new IL-18 (new seat). Goes west now to grab Macomb, making this truly a universities seat with Western Illinois University, Illinois State, and U of I. I swapped in lean-GOP but relatively good townships near Macomb while removing awful Dewitt and northern Piatt Counties. Finally, I drew a neater entry into Springfield. Obama 60.1%, Kerry 52.2%. I think this district is in the bag now for 2012, but of course having to rely on U-C for votes every two years will make it incumbent on whoever wins this seat to figure out a way of mobilizing students to vote.
IL-16 Shimkus-R (was the old IL-19) Little altered since yesterday's map. Again Shimkus represented this area in the 1990s and the reason I swing west is so we can remove Quincy and other surrounding areas from any Democratic district. Quincy is the main reason Phil Hare lost the IL-17 last November. Obama 44.1%
IL-17 Costello-D (was the old IL-12). I am a bit more aggressive, without going the route of narrow tendrils every which direction, in finding good Democratic territory to augment the district's Democratic performance. Once Costello retires, it might be difficult to retain a Southern Illinois district given the slide away from us over time, but I like our chances better under this version than what we have now. Obama 57.8%, Kerry 53.2%
IL-18 Vacant (although I suspect Johnson will run here instead of the 15th) (parts of the old IL-15 and IL-19). I tried to be responsive to feedback on my first map about the impropriety of a Kankakee to Metropolis district. Although this area of the state is so underpopulated once you remove Urbana-Champaign that you need to go all the way to Iroquois and Ford Counties and then a bit west from there to most of the farm townships of McLean County. Obama 43.1%