The next Special Election that we can win is for Nevada's Second Congressional District, which was left open by Dean Heller, who was appointed to John Ensign's Senate seat. The district has a PVI of R+5(meaning it votes five points more Republican than the nation as a whole. Barack Obama only lost the district by about 40 votes in 2008. The election will be held on September 13th.
Democrats have a very good candidate in State Treasurer Kate Marshall
The key to winning this district for a Democrat is to run up double digit margins in Reno's Washoe County and the district's portion of Las Vegas' Clark County. The Democrat also needs to win Carson City. The rest of the district is incredibly Republican and if the Democrat can hold the Republican under 60% there, they are in very good shape.
This is exactly the type of district Democrats need to be able to win if they are to win back the House and get a working majority there. Since the South is gone, we need to work on winning districts in the Mountain West along with those in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic that need to be won back.
I think we can win this district with the same message we used to win NY-26, which is protecting Medicare.