So, about a week ago, I made a map of what New York state might look like after redistricting. And earlier today, the great Dave Bradlee updated DRA with 2008 presidential election numbers for the Empire State. I loaded my old map and found there were some things I could improve on; for example, I inadvertently drew just two districts that Sen. McCain had carried in 2008 (one of them with less than 50% of the vote, with under one percentage point separating McCain from then-Sen. Obama), leaving a few districts I considered to be Democratic fairly weak.
This is the results of a redraw done using those partisan numbers. The result is a map that is less ambitious than the older one (having three districts won by McCain rather than two), but should be somewhat safer in case of a Republican wave. I think that's a likely compromise that New York legislators will reach.
Here's the map. You may notice I changed the color of NY-12 to a darker shade for better visual clarity. I also swapped the colors for NY-20 and NY-21, as on my old map, because I felt like it.
NY-01 (blue): Rep. Tim Bishop (D) - 51.7% Obama, 47.2% McCain
NY-02 (green): Rep. Steve Israel (D) - 55.4% Obama, 43.8% McCain
NY-03 (purple): Rep. Peter T. King (R) - 47.8% Obama, 51.4% McCain
NY-04 (red): Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D), Rep. Gary Ackerman (D) - 59% Obama, 40.4% McCain
NY-05 (gold): Rep. Gregory W. Meeks (D) - 80% Obama, 19.4% McCain
NY-06 (teal): Rep. Joseph Crowley (D) - 71.3% Obama, 28.1% McCain
NY-07 (dark gray): Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D) - 77.4% Obama, 21.7% McCain
NY-08 (slate blue): Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) - 60% Obama, 39.3% McCain
NY-09 (cyan): Rep. Edolphus Towns (D) - 87.5% Obama, 12.1% McCain
NY-10 (magenta): Rep. Yvette Clarke (D) - 92.6% Obama, 6.9% McCain
NY-11 (chartreuse): Rep. Nydia M. Velázquez (D) - 82.7% Obama, 16.5% McCain
NY-12 (navy): Rep. Michael Grimm (R) - 50.3% Obama, 48.9% McCain
NY-13 (salmon): Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney (D) - 77.5% Obama, 21.5% McCain
NY-14 (olive): Rep. Charles Rangel (D) - 91.8% Obama, 7.5% McCain
NY-15 (orange): Rep. José Serrano (D) - 94.8% Obama, 5% McCain
NY-16 (lime green): Rep. Eliot L. Engel (D) - 74.2% Obama, 25.1% McCain
NY-17 (dark slate blue): Rep. Nita M. Lowey (D) - 57.9% Obama, 41.3% McCain
NY-18 (yellow): Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) - 51.1% Obama, 47.8% McCain
NY-19 (olive): Rep. Chris Gibson (R) - 48.1% Obama, 50% McCain
NY-20 (maroon brown): Rep. Paul Tonko (D) - 58.5% Obama, 39.7% McCain
NY-21 (carnation pink): Rep. Bill Owens (D) - 53.7% Obama, 44.6% McCain
NY-22 (sienna): Rep. Ann-Marie Buerkle (R), Rep. Richard Hanna (R) - 54.7% Obama, 43.5% McCain
NY-23 (aquamarine): Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D) - 57.6% Obama, 40.7% McCain
NY-24 (indigo): Rep. Tom Reed (R) - 43.7% Obama, 54.8% McCain
NY-25 (pale violet-red): Rep. Brian Higgins (D) - 55.6% Obama, 42.7% McCain
NY-26 (dark gray): Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) - 53.6% Obama, 44.8% McCain
NY-27 (spring green): Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) - 59.6% Obama, 39.1% McCain
So, this one probably works out to a 21-2-4 map, with NY-01, NY-12, NY-18, and NY-19 being swingy (the latter district less so than the others). It's theoretically possible for Democrats to take over every district on this map except for NY-24 in a really, really good year, but I do expect NY-03 will probably remain fools' gold on Long Island in all but the best Democratic election cycles. If Republicans have a great year, they could pick up NY-01 as well as maybe NY-21, NY-22 (currently Republican-held but pretty much a lost cause), and NY-26, but it would really have to be one hell of a year for Team Red.
That works out to extreme scenarios of 26-1 and 18-9, with 25-2 and 19-8 probably the likelier tsunamic (coined it!) scenarios for Democrats and Republicans respectively. And I think Owens and Hochul have both shown an impressive level of political acumen already, with Owens and Tim Bishop both weathering the 2010 wave. Them's not bad odds.