I'm pretty content with our Illinois map, which has 11 Safe Dem seats, 1 that is safe until Costello retires, and 1 downstate swing district, basically a 12-5-1, and at best a 13-5. I made one that I think improves this a bit for us. I improved the new 13th from 54.6% Obama to 57.2% Obama, and improved the 14th from to 50.6% Obama to 53.1% Obama, in case State Rep. Jack Franks runs, which would put this seat in play and make this a 14-4 map. If Franks doesn't run, this is pretty much a guaranteed 13-5 and more solid than the current one and the only ugly district is the 13th.
In Arkansas, on the other hand, the map is awful. The 2nd and 3rd remain the same and the 1st and 4th actually become 1-2 points more Republican. This is absurd, considering Democrats controlled the trifecta. For this, I made two proposals. In the first proposal, I decided to let the 3rd eat as much strong GOP territory as possible, and I re-drew the Fayetteville Finger to allow the district to become just Democratic enough for Ross to hold it until 2014, while allowing the 1st and 2nd to take in its old blue territory in southeast Arkansas. This could allow us to keep 2 seats for the whole decade and a 3rd until Ross runs for governor in 2014. In the second proposal, I basically did a stand-pat map that only improves the 2nd by about 2%, but it is still a superior stand-pat to what was actually passed.
I'll start with Illinois. I'll give numbers for all the districts, but I'll only give an explanation if I made any significant changes or to discuss the incumbency situation.
Northern Illinois:
Chicagoland Closeup:
IL-1 (Blue): Bobby Rush (D-Chicago)
Black: 51.0%, White: 38.2%; VAP: Black: 50.5%, White: 40.1%
Obama: 78.9%, McCain: 20.5%
Safe D
IL-2 (Green): Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Chicago)
As most of you know, Adam Kinzinger is drawn into this district in order to make his return to Congress tough, as he could be a strong statewide candidate in the future.
Black: 55.1%, White: 29.7%, Hispanic: 12.8%
VAP: Black: 53.3%, White: 33.6%, Hispanic: 11.1%
Obama: 81.0%, McCain: 18.3%
Safe D
IL-3 (Dark Magenta): Daniel Lipinski (D-Western Springs)
Under the actual map, this district is 58.3% Obama. Whether or not Lipinski should be protected, there is absolutely no reason this district should be under 60% Obama. I also think Lipinski shouldn't be protected. If he wants to move downstate and succeed Jerry Costello in the 12th later in the decade, I would be fine with him, but we should not have a ConservaDem in this district. I returned Lipinski's primary challenger John Atkinson after he was placed in the 11th. I didn't go out of my way to screw Lipinski, but I didn't try to help him either.
White: 59.8%, Hispanic: 29.8%; VAP: White: 64.2%, Hispanic: 25.6%
Obama: 60.3%, McCain: 38.4%
Safe D
IL-4 (Maroon): Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago)
Hispanic: 71.9%, White: 20.5%; VAP: Hispanic: 66.8%, White: 25.3%
Obama: 80.6%, McCain: 18.2%
Safe D
IL-5 (Gold): Mike Quigley (D-Chicago)
White: 70.1%, Hispanic: 18.8%; VAP: White: 73.2%, Hispanic: 16.1%
Obama: 70.3%, McCain: 28.3%
Safe D
IL-6 (Teal): Peter Roskam/Randy Hultgren/Judy Biggert
Biggert will likely retire. In my map, I drew Hultgren in from the 14th to this district to ensure Jack Franks had the weakest opponent possible in the general (Joe Walsh). Hultgren could still choose to run there or run here in the DuPage County vote sink and face Roskam in a primary. Roskam and Walsh each have territorial advantages, so Hultgren is probably toast.
White: 80.5%, VAP: White: 82.5%
Obama: 50.6%, McCain: 48.1%
Safe/Likely R
Note: As weird as it is to rate an Obama district Safe R, his performance in the suburbs was absurd, and a better indicator is how Pat Quinn got under 35% here and John Kerry got in the high 30s/low 40s as well.
IL-7 (Dark Gray): Danny Davis (D-Chicago)
Just a little note, I actually found a precinct here that literally went 100% for Obama.
Black: 53.6%, White: 26.7%, Hispanic: 12.0%
VAP: Black: 50.3%, White: 30.8%, Hispanic: 10.6%
Obama: 89.5%, McCain: 9.9%
Safe D
IL-8 (Red): Open
White: 55.2%, Hispanic: 26.6%, Asian: 11.7%
VAP: White: 60.5%, Hispanic: 22.2%, Asian: 11.9%
Obama: 61.6%, McCain: 37.0%
Safe/Likely D
IL-9 (Cyan): Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston)
The Illinois Dems also drew Bob Dold! into this district just to be obnoxious, but he would still run in the 10th.
White: 65.8%, Asian: 12.0%, Hispanic: 11.1%
VAP: White: 68.0%, Asian: 12.0%
Obama: 68.5%, McCain: 30.3%
Safe D
IL-10 (Lime): Bob Dold! (R-Kenilworth)
Dold is toast in this district. I only changed one or two precincts, and according to jeffmd's calculations, even Pat Quinn won this 47-46, so this should be a pickup.
White: 60.9%, Hispanic: 21.4%; VAP: White: 64.9%, Hispanic: 18.1%
Obama: 63.0%, McCain: 35.9%
Likely D vs Dold, Safe D otherwise
IL-11 (Chartreuse): Open
I drew former Rep. Bill Foster (D-Batavia) in to this district as a courtesy, since he is running for it anyway, and he would have a smooth path with Atkinson back in the 3rd. Quinn actually lost this 47-45, but once the facts that he was a terrible candidate and that it was 2010 are taken into account, it is clear Foster should cruise here.
White: 55.7%, Hispanic: 25.1%, Black: 11.0%
VAP: White: 60.6%, Hispanic: 21.4%, Black: 10.4%
Obama: 61.1%, McCain: 37.7%
Safe/Likely D
IL-14 (Olive): Joe Walsh (R-McHenry)
This was supposed to be a vote sink, but state Rep. Jack Franks (D-Marengo) would be able to win it, so I improved the Obama percentage to 53.1% to make it as friendly as possible. Franks was able to hold on in 2010 in a state house district that went for Obama by 4.4%, but that Quinn lost by 23%. In the actual version of the 14th, Quinn got a comparable 34%, and he got about 35-36% in my version. Franks' entire state house district is in the 14th and I tried to make the rest as Democratic as possible. Randy Hultgren, who lives here in the real version, was drawn out in my map, but could challenge Walsh in a primary that he would likely lose, as Walsh has more territory and is more conservative.
White: 77.6%, Hispanic: 13.2%; VAP: White: 80.6%, Hispanic: 11.0%
Obama: 53.1%, McCain: 45.4%
Tossup for Franks, Likely R otherwise
IL-16 (Deep Pink): Donald Manzullo (R-Egan)/Adam Kinzinger (R-Manteno)
Kinzinger lives in the 2nd, but word is that he will challenge Manzullo in a primary in the 16th. Obama did so absurdly well in the Chicago suburbs that I was actually proud of myself that I was able to make a Republican vote sink that actually, you know, voted for the Republican.
White: 87.6%, VAP: White: 89.9%
McCain: 50.3%, Obama: 48.1%
Safe R
IL-17 (Dark Slate Blue): Bobby Schilling (R-Colona)
Schilling is pretty much toast.
White: 77.1%, Black: 11.2%; VAP: White: 81.2%
Obama: 60.0%, McCain: 38.4%
Safe/Likely D
Downstate:
Actual Downstate:
IL-12 (Cornflower Blue): Jerry Costello (D-East St. Louis)
I unintentionally ended up drawing John Shimkus into this district, but he wouldn't run here anyway. On second thought, I wouldn't mind if he ran here and lost to Costello and relative moderate Tim Johnson occupied the vote sink, but that's a pipe dream.
White: 77.1%, Black: 16.8%; VAP: White: 79.7%, Black: 15.4%
Obama: 55.1%, McCain: 43.2%
Safe D for Costello, Lean D otherwise
IL-13 (Salmon): Tim Johnson (R-Urbana)
What I did was literally just create a district with all the cities and then played connect-the-dots and this is what I ended up with. It ends up containing Springfield, Bloomington, Decatur, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Quincy, and some small towns I've never heard of. Unfortunately, Tim Johnson is probably the only Republican who could win this, due to his decade-long incumbency and semi-moderate voting record.
White: 78.5%, Black: 12.1%; VAP: White: 81.3%, Black: 10.5%
Obama: 57.2%, McCain: 41.0%
Tilt/Lean D vs Johnson, Lean/Likely D otherwise
IL-15 (Dark Orange): John Shimkus (R-Collinsville)
That's a lot of white people.
White: 93.8%; VAP: White: 94.3%
McCain: 56.1%, Obama: 42.1%
Safe R
IL-18 (Yellow): Aaron Schock (R-Peoria)
White: 91.0%; VAP: White: 92.4%
McCain: 55.7%, Obama: 42.8%
Safe R
On to Arkansas:
I calculated Kerry-Bush 2004 and Lincoln-Boozman 2010 numbers, all as a percent of the 2-party vote. I also calculated Obama-McCain numbers for the 2nd district only, as it was at least 60% McCain in every other district. These are the only semi-trustworthy numbers, as Obama's 2008 numbers are bottom of the barrel. I realized I probably should have used Lincoln 2004 or Beebe 2006 numbers for what an average Democratic win would look like, but these represent how outperforming Kerry, who lost the state by 10, by just a few points would win a district and Lincoln 2010 show what a worst-case scenario would look like. For some context here are the numbers in the current districts.
Statewide: Boozman: 61-39, Bush 04: 55-45, Bush 2000: 51-46, McCain: 59-39
Old AR-1: Boozman: 56.4-43.6, Bush 04: 52-47, Gore: 50-48, McCain: 59-38
Old AR-2: Boozman: 56.4-43.6, Bush 04: 51-48, Bush 2000: 49-48, McCain: 54-44
Old AR-3: Boozman: 71.8-28.2, Bush 04: 62-36, Bush 2000: 60-37, McCain: 64-34
Old AR-4: Boozman: 58.7-41.3, Bush 04: 51-48, Gore: 49-48, McCain: 58-39
Looking at those numbers, it is pretty evident how quickly Arkansas is moving Republican. However, the Arkansas Republican Party is a joke, which could buy us some time in salvaging some seats before the state turns solidly red.
Version 1:
AR-1 (blue): Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro)
This adds both Democratic counties in the southeast and Republican areas in the northwest to make up for population loss. It stays about the same, which is okay because Crawford is a pretty weak incumbent. For comparison purposes, Crawford beat Causey 54.4-45.6 in 2010 in the old incarnation, and Causey could win a rematch in a more favorable climate.
White: 77.2%, Black: 17.5%; VAP: White: 79.8%, White: 15.8%
Boozman: 56.6%, Lincoln: 43.4%
Bush: 52.2%, Kerry: 47.8%
Lean R
AR-2 (green): Tim Griffin (R-Little Rock)
This becomes a Kerry district and even in 2010-style worst-case scenarios we can hold it, considering Obama and Lincoln each got almost 47% here. Former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter may run here, and he definitely prefer to have this district.
White: 68.3%, Black: 23.6%; VAP: White: 71.5%, Black: 21.8%
Boozman: 53.1%, Lincoln: 46.9%
Kerry: 50.5%, Bush: 49.5%
McCain: 53.3%, Obama: 46.7%
Tossup with Halter, Lean R otherwise
AR-3 (purple): Steve Womack (R-Rogers)
The 2010 Senate results are skewed a bit because this was Boozman's congressional district, but it is still Arkansas' big Republican vote sink, if you will, as these people often aren't even willing to vote Democratic locally, unlike the rest of Arkansas. Womack won this open seat 72.4-27.6 in 2010.
White: 79.0%, Hispanic: 12.2%; VAP: White: 82.6%
Boozman: 73.6%, Lincoln: 26.4%
Bush: 64.4%, Kerry: 35.6%
Safe R
AR-4 (red): Mike Ross ("D"-Prescott)
Ross gives up a bunch of Dem-leaning territory to the 2nd. Since he is a complete douche, I don't feel too sorry for him. However, if he wants to be a ConservaDem, he can get a district that fits him. Btw, Ross won 57.5-40.2 in 2010 in a district that was about 3% less Republican, so he'd win here in 2012 before running for governor. This district is about equal to the state as a whole, so we would have a chance at holding it, but based on the state's rightward trend, it should be gone by the end of the decade.
White: 73.7%, Black: 17.5%; VAP: White: 76.4%, Black: 16.5%
Boozman: 61.4%, Lincoln: 38.6%
Bush: 54.3%, Kerry: 45.7%
Likely D for Ross, Lean/Likely R otherwise
Version 2: stand-pat that is superior to legislature's
AR-1 (blue): Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro)
Same as in Version 1.
White: 77.2%, Black: 17.5%; VAP: White: 79.8%, White: 15.8%
Boozman: 56.6%, Lincoln: 43.4%
Bush: 52.2%, Kerry: 47.8%
Lean R
AR-2 (green): Tim Griffin (R-Little Rock)
In 2010, Griffin picked up the district with ease over State Senate Majority Leader Joyce Elliot 57.9-38.3. Mark Pryor is reportedly worried that Griffin could beat him in 2014, and he is the strongest incumbent, so we really should give him a tough district.
White: 69.4%, Black: 22.5%; VAP: White: 72.4%, Black: 20.8%
Boozman: 54.4%, Lincoln: 45.6%
Bush: 50.9%, Kerry: 49.1%
McCain: 54.7%, Obama: 45.3%
Lean R
AR-3 (purple): Steve Womack (R-Rogers)
Same as Version 1
White: 79.0%, Hispanic: 12.2%; VAP: White: 82.6%
Boozman: 73.6%, Lincoln: 26.4%
Bush: 64.4%, Kerry: 35.6%
Safe R
AR-4 (red): Mike Ross ("D"-Prescott)
This is pretty similar to his current district, getting just 2% more Republican. Ross would be fine, but holding it after he bolts will require a good candidate.
White: 72.7%, Black: 18.7%; VAP: White: 75.5%, Black: 17.6%
Boozman: 59.9%, Lincoln: 40.1%
Bush: 52.8%, Kerry: 47.2%
Likely D for Ross, Lean R otherwise
Thanks for reading. I'll be sans Internet for the next month, but when I return, I'll do a diary about what the Republicans should have done in Indiana, Oklahoma, and Nebraska.