In the fantastic Song of Fire and Ice series (Game of Thrones on HBO - I highly recommend it), the house words of some of the main characters of the book are "Winter is coming". Three words that see conflict, hardship, and a test of wills. The warning is for those who live in the illusion that power and it's trappings are permanent.
Oftentimes fantasy stories apply to real life happenings and this particular analogy is quite appropriate to the current Middle East where at the end of the summer (if not sooner) changes are coming.
In September, the Palestinian Authority is (as of this writing) putting forth a vote in the United Nations to recognize Palestine as a nation with it's capital in East Jerusalem. The U.S. has already told everyone plainly that even if approval passes through the U.N. General Assembly (and it will by a lot), it will veto this motion in the Security Council, citing that it feels unilateral action would be counterproductive. Even though this move may not gain the Palestinian Polity admission to the U.N. the value of having the U.N. recognize Palestine is potentially great.
This move will force or create a number of different scenarios.
ISRAEL
For the Israelis, who are living like it will always be summer, the continuation of the status quo supports the right and their fanatical extremes who want to fully settle the West Bank and create a reality to an Israeli State from the Meditarranean Sea to the Jordan River. Just last week, a prominient member of the ruling Likud party Danny Danon met with other Rightists to talk about creating a new reality where the West Bank is annexed to Israel, and that if there is to be a Palestinian State, Jordan (already a State in it's own right) would be it. Should this continue, this would leave Israel as a relatively bi-national State coping with the issue of retaining it's character as the National Homeland and State of the Jewish People in the face of a Jewish minority or soon to be Jewish minority. This all would severly test the character of the State's democracy and at least hat tips to civil rights.
Now, PM Netanyahu has talked about a plan to come forth for a modified two State solution which is really only acceptable to his secular Right Wing allies in the Likud party as well as Yisrael Beiteinu. This modified plan would create a de-militarized Palestinian enclave with Ramallah as it's capital and leave it almost completely surrounded by Israel. It would leave Israel in control of the about 50% of the West Bank including all of East Jerusalem as well as the Jordan River Valley.
Either way, nothing that the Israeli government has proposed has any real chance of being accepted by the Palestinians. Now the Israeli Right reasons that it has the Guns, resources, and everything else on it's side and that if the Palestinians don't like their situation they can simply leave. But, what they don't realize is that the world doesn't quite see things the same way they do. At some point their society will have to deal with the unpleasant reality that the occupation of lands taken in the 1967 war and subsequent policy decisions has created.
For Israel, the only way September matters in the short run is if the U.S. and E.U. can forge a peace agreement. Otherwise it won't amount to much in terms of real policy. The Israeli "Summer" mentality will keep on going until one day they wake up and "Winter" has snuck up on them and they simply have nothing to deal with it.
The Palestinians
Simply put... The Palestinian polity is in chaos. To facilitate this move in September the Palestinians signed a unity agreement in May, and set June 6th as a target date to set up a unity government. This however, seems to be failing miserably and unity talks are now frozen with each side, Hamas, and Fateh each playing the blame game. Just today, Hamas' Mahmoud al-Zahar says Fatah to blame for talks delay
BETHLEHEM (Ma’an) -- Senior Hamas leader Mahmoud Al-Zahar has reportedly blamed Fatah for the delay in reconciliation talks, confirming reports that talks reached a dead end.
"After we signed the agreement, Fatah on the ground worked against it," Al-Zahar told the Jordanian newspaper Al-Dustur on Tuesday.
He added that Fatah were linking the whole reconciliation process to the position of prime minster, an approach which was damaging unity efforts.
The issue that the two sides are working on (diaried here) amongst other things has to do with the Palestinian Authorities insistance on Salam Fayyad as the Prime Minister of the new government. Hamas objects to this though Fayyad right now, according to polls, is the most popular person for the job and he is well liked by the International community, particularly those countries that can actually spend money to help build up the Palestinian infrastructure. Much of this support hinges on donor nations not wanting to have money go to Hamas (which they consider a terrorist organization).
So in effect the Palestinians are going to the U.N. (where they already have 116 nations pledged to support their bid for statehood and are gearing up for at least two dozen more nations) without any coherent government. They are asking the U.N. to sign on to the birth of a State that has absolutely no clear leadership. Will this affect them getting enough votes for Statehood? Certainly not, they have that going away. What they don't have is anyone who can actually make the U.N. resolution account for anything more than just a resolution. PM Fayyad echoes this:
The Palestinians' bid to seek UN recognition of a state will just be a symbolic victory and will not change the reality of Israeli occupation, Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad said Tuesday.
Fayyad's skepticism, voiced in an interview with The Associated Press, set him apart from the rest of the Palestinian leadership.
....Fayyad, a political independent who is not involved in decision-making on foreign policy, nonetheless expressed doubts about the UN campaign.
Asked if anything would change on the ground after UN recognition, he said: "My answer to you is no. Unless Israel is part of that consensus, it won't because to me, it is about ending Israeli occupation."
Say what one may about PM Fayyad, he is realistic and understands what this process will take.
Despite the lack of a coherent polity the Palestinian Authority is pressing forward and has formed a committee to deal with the July 15th paperwork deadline for their bid for International recognition. As Fateh central committee member Nabil Shaath told Maan News:
"There is no return or retreat from the UN step in September; the efforts from now until September will focus on maintaining the countries that recognized the Palestinian state and consolidating their positions in the face of Israeli and American pressure, and recruit an additional number of countries that support the Palestinian step at the UN,"
THE U.S. and E.U..
The one thing that can change this is if the U.S. or E.U. can get the parties "back to the negotiating table". The U.S. will be hosting a summit on July 11th where it and the E.U. come to meet and talk about a new Middle East Peace proposal. This meeting is only four days before the filing deadline. As Haaretz points out:U.S., EU to present Mideast peace plan in last push to prevent Palestinian UN bid
In a last-minute effort to stop the Palestinians from seeking unilateral recognition at the United Nations in September, the Mideast Quartet is planning to present a new international peace plan at a summit in Washington on July 11, senior Israeli and European officials said Tuesday.
The Quartet's envoys - representing the United States, the European Union, the United Nations, and Russia – will be mapping out a peace plan based on U.S. President Barack Obama's Mideast speech on May 19, which is supposed to present an alternative to the Palestinian move at the UN.
The summit will be taking place at a very critical time – only four days before the appointed date that the Palestinians set to officially appeal to the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and to send him Palestine's request for full membership at the UN.
So where does this leave us - well we have one side that is mired in its own avoidance of reality that it is endangering it's very being. We have another side that is so completely dysfunctional that it could barely run a school district much less a new country.
So what happens now? Well I see a few scenarios. I think the Quartet summit on the 11th could bring something and hopefully this gets the parties back together, ends the stand off and starts final State negotiations. HOWEVER if it does not, and the Palestinian bid is approved (though we know the U.S. will veto) then I see the Israelis possibly taking unilateral action along the lines of the proposals of FM Avigdor Lieberman and what PM Benjamin Netanyahu has proposed. I don't think this would be a good thing for anyone Israelis or Palestinians.
Anyway, what do you think happens now. Please feel free to contribute your ideas.
Shalom