Yesterday I posted a diary outlining what an Olympia-oriented 10th district might look like.
Today I present an alternative where I generally try to keep counties together. Overall the Democratic districts are not as safe, but neither is Dave Reichert (R)'s 8th district. This would take Tacoma away from Norm Dicks (D), which will be a tough sell, so I suspect it's not that close to what the commission will come up with.
See below the fold for the details.
Here's the population of the largest counties in Washington:
County |
Total Pop |
King |
1,931,249 |
Pierce |
795,225 |
Snohomish |
713,335 |
Spokane |
471,221 |
Clark |
425,363 |
Thurston |
252,264 |
Kitsap |
252,133 |
Yakima |
243,231 |
Given that each congressional district should have 672,453 people, you can see quickly that King County should have almost 3 districts to itself, and Pierce and Snohomish should each have 1 with some leftover. Pierce contains Tacoma, just south of King. Snohomish contains Everett, just north of King. Then Spokane and Clark should each have the core of a district.
First, here are the numbers for this proposal.
District |
Total Pop |
Murray (D) 2010 |
Rossi (R) 2010 |
White |
Black |
Hisp |
Asian |
Native |
Other |
1 |
672496 |
51.9% |
48.1% |
81.7% |
1.1% |
8.1% |
3.4% |
2.4% |
3.4% |
2 |
672266 |
52.2% |
47.8% |
73.8% |
2.5% |
9.2% |
9.7% |
0.9% |
3.9% |
3 |
672479 |
43.4% |
56.6% |
75.2% |
1.5% |
15.0% |
3.4% |
1.8% |
3.0% |
4 |
672814 |
34.7% |
65.3% |
63.5% |
0.9% |
31.4% |
1.6% |
0.8% |
1.8% |
5 |
672145 |
41.5% |
58.5% |
85.5% |
1.3% |
5.3% |
2.4% |
2.3% |
3.1% |
6 |
672278 |
51.6% |
48.4% |
81.0% |
2.0% |
7.1% |
4.1% |
1.7% |
4.1% |
7 |
672685 |
81.0% |
19.0% |
65.0% |
7.6% |
8.1% |
14.1% |
0.7% |
4.6% |
8 |
672465 |
49.8% |
50.2% |
67.5% |
5.5% |
10.7% |
11.0% |
1.0% |
4.3% |
9 |
672424 |
51.2% |
48.8% |
67.4% |
7.4% |
9.9% |
7.9% |
1.2% |
6.2% |
10 |
672474 |
58.3% |
41.7% |
64.6% |
4.3% |
7.5% |
19.0% |
0.4% |
4.1% |
In this proposal, the 3rd, 4th and 5th districts are the same as presented in
yesterday's diary. They are entirely or party east of the Cascades and would be solid R's. The 5th district contains Spokane County plus a number of small counties. The 3rd district contains Clark County and then stretches to take part of Yakima County.
Here's what the Puget Sound area looks like.
The 7th district remains almost as it is today. The new 10th district is an all King County Seattle suburban district. It includes Shoreline, Bothell, Redmond, Kirkland, Bellevue, Mercer Island, Issaquah, Sammamish and Renton. It's a solid D (58.3% Murray).
The 8th remains primarily a King County district with part of Pierce County. Compared to it's current form, it gives up Bellevue and Mercer Island and takes in southwest King County, including Sea-Tac, Federal Way and Kent. It becomes slightly more competitive (was 49.2% Murray, now 49.8%).
The 9th becomes an all Pierce County district, taking Tacoma from the 6th, while giving up southwest King County and its part of Thurston County. It becomes less safe for Adam Smith (D) (was 52.8% Murray, now 51.2%).
The 6th district (Norm Dicks (D)) would lose Tacoma and the northern Olympic Peninsula, but gain Thurston, Pacific, Wahkiakum Counties and part of Cowlitz. It would become less safe (was 53.0% Murray, now 51.6%).
The 2nd district (Rick Larsen (D)) would become an all Snohomish County district (except the part of King near Stevens pass which is accessible from the west only from Snohomish). This would become a safer D (was 50.5% Murray, now 52.2%).
The 1st district would become a northwest district, taking in the northern part of the Olympic Peninsula and the northern counties of Whatcom, Skagit, San Juan and Island. It would retain its part of Kitsap County, including Bainbridge Island. It becomes much less D safe (was 56.2% Murray, now 51.9%).
Overall, this is not a great map for Democrats, compared to the Olympia-centric new district. That does not mean, though, that the Olympia-centric is a must. A 10th district could be in King County and give a better map for Dems. The problem with this one is because this 10th district is a stronger D than the Olympia-centric map's 1st district (which is in about the same location). That strength is bled from the 1st, 6th and 9th. Also, in this proposal some D strength is going to make the 8th district even more swingy.
So, I don't think this is likely. Keeping counties more together is not really high on anyone's agenda. Interesting, though. I'll post a couple more ideas in the coming days.