Back in March George Cheung, director of the Win/Win Network proposed that Washington State could have a majority minority congressional district. (See the Seattle Times article here). The article for the most part argues against such a district, because it goes against the conventional thinking that all of Seattle should be in 1 district.
For starters, the idea of splitting the city of Seattle between two districts may prove controversial. The city currently is contained entirely within the 7th Congressional District.
While not ruling it out, U.S. Rep. Jim McDermott, the 7th District's 12-term Democratic congressman, said "it's always made sense to me" that Seattle remain unified in a single district.
Splitting Seattle could prove unpalatable to Republicans, since it would put the city's overwhelmingly Democratic vote at play in two congressional races instead of one.
Former U.S. Sen. Slade Gorton, one of the Republican members of the redistricting commission, said the commission welcomes ideas from any group, but noted that the panel is supposed to avoid splitting cities wherever possible.
Cheung refuted that argument.
Cheung defended the idea, saying "communities in Southeast Seattle in many ways are more connected to places like Renton or Kent than they are to Laurelhurst or Northgate. [neighborhoods in the the more affluent north Seattle]"
In addition, although the core of Seattle is in CD 7, CD 1 extends into the affluent northwest corner of the city, while CD 7 extends north of the city into Shoreline. So, contrary to what Slade Gorton said, the commission did not adhere to that guideline last time, when they clearly could have.
I took Chueng's idea and using Dave's Redistricting App made such a map. It's very doable. See below for maps and numbers.
In going from 9 congressional districts to 10, a big change is that one district will have to straddle the Cascade Mountains, a very significant barrier. In the north, there are no year round mountain passes open. Three passes are year round in the central part of the state. The Columbia River Gorge along the Oregon border is also open year round. In the last decade the population worked out just right to put 2 districts on the east side of the mountains and 7 on the west. Now, about 1/4 of some district has to be east of the mountains with the rest west of the mountains.
Let's look at the current districts.
The numbers for the current districts (these numbers are from DRA obtained by creating the current 9 CDs):
District |
Total Pop |
Murray (D) 2010 |
Rossi (R) 2010 |
White |
Black |
Hisp |
Asian |
Native |
Other |
1 |
740104 |
56.2% |
43.8% |
72.7% |
2.6% |
7.6% |
12.3% |
0.7% |
4.2% |
2 |
760100 |
50.5% |
49.5% |
80.2% |
1.3% |
9.6% |
3.8% |
1.8% |
3.3% |
3 |
779348 |
47.5% |
52.5% |
83.1% |
1.5% |
7.4% |
3.8% |
0.9% |
3.3% |
4 |
773715 |
35.6% |
64.4% |
60.3% |
0.8% |
33.8% |
1.5% |
1.7% |
1.9% |
5 |
724303 |
41.4% |
58.6% |
84.6% |
1.4% |
6.4% |
2.4% |
2.2% |
3.0% |
6 |
709555 |
53.0% |
47.0% |
73.3% |
5.3% |
8.5% |
5.8% |
2.1% |
5.2% |
7 |
702888 |
81.0% |
19.0% |
63.8% |
8.2% |
8.0% |
14.7% |
0.7% |
4.6% |
8 |
812406 |
49.2% |
50.8% |
71.2% |
2.9% |
7.2% |
13.8% |
0.7% |
4.1% |
9 |
722107 |
52.8% |
47.2% |
63.0% |
7.5% |
12.0% |
11.0% |
1.1% |
5.3% |
As you can see the smallest White majority is 60.3% in the 4th district, also the most Republican district in the state. The 9th district is 63% White (South King County and much of Pierce County, including parts of Tacoma). The 7th district (most of Seattle) is 63% White. The state overall is 72.5% White.
Politically, you can see from the Murray-Rossi race last year (which is a better indicator than Obama-McCain IMO), there are currently 2 solid Ds (1 and 7), 2 lean Ds (6 and 9), 2 solid Rs (4 and 5), 1 lean R (3, which flipped in 2010) and 2 swings (2 and 8, with Ds holding 1 and Rs the other). So that's 2-2-2-1-2 (from solid D to solid R) with Dems holding 5 seats, Repubs 4.
Now, let's look at my proposed map.
This is not perfectly drawn for current representatives, but would be workable. For example, Jay Inslee (D) would be in CD 7 instead of his current CD 1, but he likely will run for governor. Jim McDermott lives in the new CD 10 (I think he's in Mt Baker), which would be ok, but a slight adjustment could put him in CD 7. Let's look at the numbers and then go thru the individual districts.
District |
Total Pop |
Murray (D) 2010 |
Rossi (R) 2010 |
White |
Black |
Hisp |
Asian |
Native |
Other |
1 |
672461 |
52.2% |
47.8% |
73.1% |
1.9% |
7.1% |
13.6% |
0.5% |
3.8% |
2 |
672395 |
51.5% |
48.5% |
78.0% |
1.5% |
10.4% |
4.8% |
2.0% |
3.3% |
3 |
672463 |
44.0% |
56.0% |
71.9% |
1.4% |
18.7% |
3.2% |
1.9% |
2.9% |
4 |
672532 |
34.5% |
65.5% |
66.9% |
0.8% |
27.0% |
1.6% |
1.6% |
2.0% |
5 |
672491 |
41.7% |
58.3% |
85.8% |
1.5% |
5.6% |
2.5% |
1.6% |
3.1% |
6 |
672446 |
53.0% |
47.0% |
82.3% |
1.8% |
6.3% |
3.7% |
1.9% |
4.0% |
7 |
672435 |
73.2% |
26.8% |
76.0% |
3.0% |
5.7% |
10.2% |
0.7% |
4.3% |
8 |
672492 |
49.9% |
50.1% |
70.7% |
4.2% |
8.8% |
10.6% |
1.0% |
4.7% |
9 |
672431 |
53.4% |
46.6% |
73.6% |
5.4% |
8.2% |
6.2% |
1.2% |
5.4% |
10 |
672380 |
65.2% |
34.8% |
47.0% |
12.7% |
14.4% |
19.9% |
1.0% |
5.0% |
The most significant aspect in these numbers is CD 10, which is 47.0% White, a majority minority district, and not just barely. It's 12.7% Black, 14.4% Hispanic and 19.9% Asian and Pacific Islander. Native Americans and others (generally two or more races) make up the rest. Here's what the district looks like.
The district includes much of South Seattle, although not North Capitol Hill and the strip of Madrona along Lake Washington. It extends all the way to Pierce County in the south, but excludes the strip of West Seattle and Burien along the shore of Puget Sound. The long arm in the southeast is the Muckleshoot Native American Reservation. Politically, this is a solid D districts, going 65.2% for Patty Murray.
The creation of CD 10 pushes around all the districts in the Seattle area.
Starting in the north CD 2 is generally the same. Differences are Whidbey Island, which goes to CD 6 and southeastern Snohomish County, which goes to CD 1. The edge along southwestern Snohomish also shifts a little. The district goes from swing district (50.5% Murray) to lean D (51.5% Murray).
CD 1 shifts to the east, losing Bainbridge Island, its part of Kitsap County, northwest King County and Kirkland, all to CD 7. CD 1 picks up southeastern and parts of southern Snohomish County and northeastern King County. It retains Redmond (home of Microsoft) and Woodinville. The district goes from being a solid D (56.2% Murray) to lean D (52.2% Murray). This is currently Democrat Jay Inslee's district, but he lives on Bainbridge Island. However, he is expected to run for governor next year. Also, Darcy Burner lives in this district (her home being finally rebuilt after the 2008 fire).
CD 7 retains north Seattle, downtown Seattle and several neighborhoods south of the ship canal (Queen Anne, Magnolia, Capitol Hill, Madrona, etc.). It gives up the rest of south and west Seattle and Vashon Island. It picks up from CD 1 Bainbridge Island and much of the Kitsap Peninsula. I believe this does not include Jim McDermott's home (in the Mt Baker neighborhood, I think), but it could be extended a bit along the Lake Washington shore if necessary. It remains a solid D, going from 81.0% Murray to 73.2% Murray.
CD 8 retains its core of Mercer Island, much of Bellevue, Issaquah and Sammamish, as well as southeastern King County. It also extends to Auburn (home of incumbent Dave Reichert (R)) as it currently does. (I don't know exactly where Reichert lives, but a slight adjustment could include his home if necessary.) CD 8 gives up northeastern King County, including North Bend and Snoqualimie. It retains the Puyallup area in Pierce County and extends further west into south Tacoma. It retains its swing district status, going from 49.2% Murray to 49.9% Murray.
CD 6 retains its core of the Olympic Peninsula and the Navy port of Bremerton. It gives up its share of Tacoma, but adds Vashon Island and part of West Seattle. It also adds Whidbey Island (from CD 2). In the southwest, it picks up Pacific and Wahkiakum Counties and extends down to Longview and Kelso on the Columbia River. This district, long represented by Norm Dicks (D) retains its lean D character (staying at 53.0% Murray).
CD 9 retains its core around Tacoma (including Adam Smith (D)'s home), picking up most of Tacoma itself from CD 6, but giving up some south Tacoma and suburbs to CD 8. It gives up all of its part of southwest King County, shifting west to pick up Olympia and all of Thurston County. It also extends up to Shelton and down to Centralia. It retains its lean D character, going from 52.8% to 53.4% Murray.
CD 3 retains its core of Vancouver (Clark County), but gives up the southwest corner of the state to CD 6 and its share of Olympia and Centralia to CD 9. It's extends further east all the way to Yakima (east of the mountains), picking up a significant Hispanic population (18.7%) in Yakima County. It goes from being lean R (Murray 47.5%) to solid R (44.0% Murray). This is the open seat that flipped to R in 2010, represented now by Jaime Herrera Beutler. (I conciously tried to add Hispanics to this district, but CD 4 still has more Hispanics (27%), so it may be better to attempt to shift more of the Hispanic population of Yakima County back to the CD 4.)
Further east CD 4 retains its core core of Tri-cities to Wenatchee to Chelan. It picks up Okanogan and Ferry Counties from CD 5 and gives up part of Yakima County to CD 3. It retains its solid R character, going from 35.6% to 34.5% Murray.
Finally, CD 5 retains its core of Spokane, Pullman and Walla Walla in the easternmost part of the state. It retains its solid R character, going from 41.4% to 41.7% Murray.
In summary a majority non-White congressional district in Washington State is easily doable. It has the greatest effect on the Seattle area, where a significant part of Seattle would be split from CD 7. In this proposal, districts 1, 7 and 9 would see significant shifts, but politically would remain similar in character.
Politically, the state delegation would likely go from a 5-4 to 6-4 Democratic majority. Also, the state would from 2-2-2-1-2 (solid D, lean D, swing, lean R, solid R) to 2-4-1-0-3. Thus, Republicans would gain a more solid hold on CD 3 (a district they only recently gained) and in exchange Democrats would gain a lean D and move a swing district they hold (CD 2) to a lean D.