I made a map that has 15 safe Democratic districts. 12 of them are 60%+ Obama and the other three are at least 58% Obama, so these are no-question safe D. I made one other swing district that Obama won by 0.6% that a moderate could hold. In addition, I made a suburban Dallas seat that McCain won by 7, which is Likely R for now, but could flip by the end of the decade due to demographic trends. There are also 4 additional districts I drew that conservative Democrats could hold. For now, this is basically a 18-15-1-2, which is at worst a 21 R-15 D map and at best a 20 D-16 R if we win the tie, get our strong recruits in the 2 that depend on candidates, and have the dominoes fall our way in another. By the end of the decade, this is probably a 17-15-3-1. FYI, initially the map was pretty compact, but I wanted to see how blue I could get the other districts without affecting the 15 safe Dem ones, so there a few hideous districts. Anyways, here's the map:
Northeast Texas:
TX-1 (Aquamarine): Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)
I'm not sure if Rep. Batshit actually lives in this district. He lives in Tyler, which is split on my map between this district and the 5th, but he would likely run here to avoid a primary with Jeb Hensarling. The only Democrats who could win this are former Rep. Max Sandlin and former State Reps. Stephen Frost and Mark Homer. Sandlin was a 4-term Congressman from this district before losing to Gohmert in 2004 due to the DeLaymander. However, even the pre-DeLaymander version was still 69-30 McCain, so he can definitely win. Frost was a 3-term rep in a 68-32 McCain district before losing in 2010. Homer was a 6-term rep in a 70-29 McCain district before losing in 2010. Each of them could beat Gohmert, but if he doesn't run here, it's probably likely R.
McCain: 66.1%, Obama: 33.9%; Average R: 59.9%, Average D: 40.1%
White: 63.4%, Black: 18.9%, Hispanic: 15.0%;
VAP: White: 67.4%, Black: 18.5%, Hispanic: 11.8%
Lean R: Sandlin/Frost/Homer vs. Gohmert; Likely R: Sandlin/Frost/Homer vs. Generic R or Generic D vs. Gohmert, Safe R: Generic D vs. Generic R
TX-4 (Light Salmon): Ralph Hall (R-Rockwall)
The ex-Democrat Ralph Hall lives in the new TX-35, and could run there, but this most resembles his current district. Then again, he'll be 89 in 2012 and may just retire.
McCain: 67.5%, Obama: 32.5%; Average R: 71.5%, Average D: 28.5%
White: 70.9%, Hispanic: 14.1%; VAP: White: 74.3%, Hispanic: 12.0%
Safe R
Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex
TX-3 (Cyan): Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)
Marchant is one of the few Republican beneficiaries of this plan, as his old district was rapidly trending our way. It drops all the Hispanic areas and the McCain percentage goes up from 55% to 68%.
McCain: 68.1%, Obama: 31.9%; Average R: 73.6%, Average D: 26.4%
White: 73.1%, Hispanic: 14.0%; VAP: White: 76.1%, Hispanic: 12.0%
Safe R
TX-12 (Lime Green): Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)
Burgess would at least have to actually campaign the next couple cycles and could very well lose the seat if demographics continue moving our way. His old district was 58% McCain, compared to 53.5% in this new one. Also, the overall population is already only plurality-white, so this could be a Lean Dem seat by 2018.
McCain: 53.5%, Obama: 46.5%; Average R: 62.1%, Average D: 37.9%
White: 49.7%, Hispanic: 25.3%, Black: 12.3%, Asian: 10.1%
VAP: White: 54.0%, Hispanic: 22.0%, Black: 11.9%, Asian: 10.0%
Likely R (for now)
TX-24 (Red): Open
This is a new Dallas-area majority-minority district. It is plurality white VAP, but plurality Hispanic overall. The Average D numbers kind of worry me, but with demographics trending our way it shouldn't be much of an issue.
Obama: 59.1%, McCain: 40.9%; Average D: 53.0%, Average R: 47.0%
Hispanic: 41.4%, White: 32.6%, Black: 18.2%
VAP: White: 38.7%, Hispanic: 35.8%, Black: 17.6%
Likely D
TX-26 (Gold): Open
This is a new Ft. Worth-based majority-minority district. Just like the new TX-24, it is plurality white VAP, but plurality Hispanic overall. Martin Frost might want to make a comeback here, as it includes the Democratic portions of Arlington, where he at least used to live.
Obama: 63.4%, McCain: 36.6%; Average D: 58.6%, Average R: 41.4%
Hispanic: 38.1%, White: 30.0%, Black: 25.2%
VAP: White: 35.4%, Hispanic: 33.4%, Black: 24.7%
Safe D
TX-30 (Cornflower Blue): Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)
Her district drops from 82% Obama to 61% Obama and is no longer anywhere near the current D+27 PVI, but she's still safe. Joe Barton lives here as well, but he would have no chance here.
Obama: 61.4%, McCain: 38.6%; Average D: 58.7%, Average R: 41.3%
Black: 37.1%, White: 36.5%, Hispanic: 23.9%
VAP: White: 40.0%, Black: 37.3%, Hispanic: 20.4%
Safe D
TX-32 (Dark Orchid/Purple): Open
This is a new Dallas-area Hispanic-majority district.
Obama: 61.2%, McCain: 38.8%; Average D: 57.3%, Average R: 42.7%
Hispanic: 56.2%, White: 22.9%, Black: 14.7%
VAP: Hispanic: 50.1%, White: 28.2%, Black: 15.1%
Safe D
TX-35 (Blue): Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)/Sam Johnson (R-Plano)
This Dallas-area GOP Vote sink packs Pete Sessions, Sam Johnson, Jeb Hensarling, and Ralph Hall all into this district. Hall will be 89 in 2012 and may retire, but would likely run in the new 4th anyway, as it most closely resembles his current district. Hensarling probably would run in the new 5th, which has more of his former territory. Johnson will be 82 in 2012 and may retire as well, so Sessions could luck out and get this district all to himself.
McCain: 64.2%, Obama: 35.8%; Average R: 71.4%, Average D: 28.6%
White: 65.5%, Hispanic: 17.0%; VAP: White: 68.9%, Hispanic: 14.4%
Safe R
TX-36 (Gray): Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth)
I take it Granger wouldn't want to run in the new 26th, so she would run here.
McCain: 67.3%, Obama: 32.7%; Average R: 69.8%, Average D: 30.2%
White: 70.2%, Hispanic: 17.6%; VAP: White: 74.1%, Hispanic: 14.7%
Safe R
Central Texas:
TX-2 (Dark Magenta): Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)
This is relatively similar to Brady's current 8th district.
McCain: 75.8%, Obama: 24.2%; Average R: 75.0%, Average D: 25.0%
White: 73.7%, Hispanic: 16.4%; VAP: White: 76.4%, Hispanic: 14.1%
Safe R
TX-5 (Gold/Yellow): Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)
He doesn't live here, but it most closely resembles his current territory. Louie Gohmert may live here, but would probably run in the 1st.
McCain: 76.2%, Obama: 23.8%; Average R: 71.0%, Average D: 29.0%
White: 78.7%, Hispanic: 12.0%; VAP: White: 81.4%
Safe R
TX-6 (Dark Orange): John Carter (R-Round Rock)
Carter's new district is 10% more Republican than his old one in order to pack as many Republicans as possible.
McCain: 68.1%, Obama: 31.9%; Average R: 71.3%, Average D: 28.7%
White: 73.5%, Hispanic: 19.2%; VAP: White: 77.2%, Hispanic: 16.2%
Safe R
TX-11 (Dark Slate Blue-in btw orange & gold): Bill Flores (R-Bryan)
Former 10-term Rep. Chet Edwards could make a comeback here, seeing as he held a 68% McCain district for 3 terms before losing in 2010. Another possibility is former State Rep. Jim Dunnam, who served 7 terms in a 54-45 McCain district prior to a 2010 loss. With either of these guys, we'd have a decent shot at taking this back. In addition, the overall population is barely minority-majority, so it looks like the demographics are trending our way as well.
McCain: 54.6%, Obama: 45.4%; Average R: 56.2%, Average D: 43.8%
White: 49.9%, Hispanic: 25.8%, Black: 19.1%
VAP: White: 54.8%, Hispanic: 22.2%, Black: 18.4%
Tossup/Tilt R for Edwards/Dunnam, Likely R otherwise
TX-34 (Green): Open
There are a couple Democrats who could win this district. Former Rep. Jim Turner served 4 terms in a 72% McCain district that resembles this one before retiring in 2004 after the DeLaymander split his district 3 ways. He also has over $1 million remaining in his campaign account, so he's a definite possibility. Former State Rep. Jim McReynolds served 7 terms in a 68-31 McCain district before losing in 2010.
McCain: 68.3%, Obama: 31.7%; Average R: 61.6%, Average D: 38.4%
White: 65.5%, Hispanic: 16.4%, Black: 15.7%
VAP: White: 68.7%, Black: 15.7%, Hispanic: 13.6%
Tossup for Turner, Lean R for McReynolds, Likely R otherwise
Houston Metro Area:
TX-7 (Dark Gray): Open
This is a new Houston-area minority-majority district that is plurality-Hispanic. Al Green could theoretically try to run here if he wanted to avoid a primary with Sheila Jackson Lee in the new 9th.
Obama: 62.7%, McCain: 37.3; Average D: 56.7%, Average R: 43.3%
Hispanic: 39.7%, Black: 21.5%, White: 21.5%, Asian: 15.4%
VAP: Hispanic: 36.0%, White: 25.1%, Black: 20.6%, Asian: 16.5%
Safe/Likely D
TX-9 (Lime): Al Green & Sheila Jackson Lee (Ds-Houston)
This new black-majority district throws together the two black Democrats after combining much of each of their old plurality-black districts. More of the territory comes from Jackson Lee's old 18th district, and she is slightly to Green's left, so she might be a slight favorite.
Obama: 83.9%, McCain: 16.1%; Average D: 80.9%, Average R: 19.1%
Black: 51.5%, Hispanic: 30.4%, White: 14.0
VAP: Black: 51.8%, Hispanic: 26.9%, White: 17.0%
Safe D
TX-10 (Yellow): Ted Poe (R-Humble)
This is vastly different from his current district, but he gets 8% safer in this northern Harris County vote sink.
McCain: 68.4%, Obama: 31.6%; Average R: 73.9%, Average D: 26.1%
White: 55.7%, Hispanic: 23.3%, Black: 11.9%
VAP: White: 59.4%, Hispanic: 20.6%, Black: 11.3%
Safe R
TX-18 (Deep Pink): Open
This is a new Hispanic-majority district in Houston, replacing Sheila Jackson Lee's old plurality-black district.
Obama: 58.8%, McCain: 41.2%; Average D: 54.6%, Average R: 45.4%
Hispanic: 61.0%, White: 17.9%, Black: 14.6%
VAP: Hispanic: 56.9%, White: 21.7%, Black: 14.6%
Likely D
TX-29 (Light Pink): Gene Green (D-Houston)
Green's VRA Hispanic district gets about 3 points more Republican, but it shouldn't make much of a difference.
Obama: 59.1%, McCain: 40.9%; Average D: 59.8%, Average R: 40.2%
Hispanic: 67.3%, White: 17.2%, Black: 12.5%
VAP: Hispanic: 63.1%, White: 20.9%, Black: 12.8%
Safe D
TX-22 (Brown): Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)
Olson gets 10% safer, as he gets to hold the GOP vote sink comprised of Houston's southern suburbs.
McCain: 67.9%, Obama: 32.1%, Average R: 69.6%, Average D: 30.4%
White: 57.7%, Hispanic: 22.7%, VAP: White: 61.3%, Hispanic: 19.8%
Safe R
Houston-Austin-San Antonio Area:
TX-20 (Sea Green): Michael McCaul (R-Austin)
McCaul has no shot, but this is the closest to his current district.
Obama: 63.7%, McCain: 36.3%; Average D: 59.7%, Average R: 40.3%
Hispanic: 50.1%, White: 34.7%, Black: 10.9%
VAP: Hispanic: 44.6%, White: 40.1%, Black: 10.9%
Safe D
TX-25 (Violet Red): Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)
This is the only area in Texas with a bunch of white liberals, thanks to UT-Austin. The Average D numbers scare me a bit, but Doggett's a popular incumbent and the Obama performance improves by 2% from his old district that he easily held.
Obama: 60.6%, McCain: 39.4%; Average D: 52.8%, Average R: 47.2%
White: 64.8%, Hispanic: 21.1%; VAP: White: 67.7%, Hispanic: 18.9%
Likely D
TX-33 (Royal Blue): John Culberson (R-Houston)
Culberson gets about 8% safer in this new district, after getting a surprisingly strong challenge in his old 7th by Democrat Michael Skelly in 2008.
McCain: 65.8%, Obama: 34.2%; Average R: 70.0%, Average D: 30.0%
White: 60.8%, Hispanic: 20.9%; VAP: White: 63.9%, Hispanic: 18.5%
Safe R
San Antonio:
TX-21 (Maroon): Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)
The Hispanic percentage drops a bit from his old 20th district, but it allows the creation of addition majority-minority districts, so there shouldn't be any VRA issues.
Obama: 62.6%, McCain: 37.4%; Average D: 58.7%, Average R: 41.3%
Hispanic: 63.0%, White: 22.6%, Black: 10.3%
VAP: Hispanic: 59.3%, White: 26.3%, Black: 10.3%
Safe D
TX-31 (Khaki): Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)
Smith gets a safe seat that is 8% more Republican than his current one.
McCain: 64.0%, Obama: 36.0%; Average R: 70.2%, Average D: 29.8%
White: 57.6%, Hispanic: 32.8%; VAP: White: 61.2%, Hispanic: 29.6%
Safe R
South Texas:
TX-8 (Slate Blue/Light Purple): Open
State Rep. Craig Eiland, who was re-elected to a 7th term in 2010, represents a 53-47 McCain district and could definitely win here.
Obama: 50.3%, McCain: 49.7%; Average D: 52.8%, Average R: 47.2%
White: 42.5%, Hispanic: 28.7%, Black: 22.8%
VAP: White: 56.5%, Hispanic: 25.5%, Black: 22.4%
Tossup
TX-14 (Yellow Green): Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson)
Paul's district gets extremely ugly as the 8th reaches arms to unlock all the Democratic voters here. Having a libertarian in such a red district is pretty nice as he votes with us a decent amount of the time on foreign policy and the drug war.
McCain: 68.8%, Obama: 31.2%; Average R: 65.6%, Average D: 34.4%
White: 57.9%, Hispanic: 33.0%; VAP: White: 61.6%, Hispanic: 29.5%
Safe R
TX-15 (Spring Green): Rubén Hinojosa (D-Mercedes)
Whites don't even make up 10% of the population in this district, which gets 8% more Democratic.
Obama: 68.2%, McCain: 31.8%; Average D: 65.5%, Average R: 34.5%
Hispanic: 90.2%!; VAP: Hispanic: 87.6%, White: 10.5%
Safe D
TX-27 (Orange): Blake Farenthold (R-Corpus Christi)
Farenthold would be toast here. Hopefully the fact that Obama did 8% better here than the old 27th would allow someone more progressive than Solomon Ortiz to win here.
Obama: 60.6%, McCain: 39.4%; Average D: 59.9%, Average R: 40.1%
Hispanic: 81.1%, White: 15.9%; VAP: Hispanic: 77.4%, White: 19.3%
Safe D
TX-28 (Plum): Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)
Cuellar already coasted in a 56% Obama district that Bush won in 2004, but he gets much safer, perhaps inviting a primary challenger. However, Cuellar has moved way to the left since 2006, so he might be able to survive.
Obama: 65.1%, McCain: 34.9%; Average D: 68.7%, Average R: 31.3%
Hispanic: 86.2%, White: 11.6%; VAP: Hispanic: 84.0%, White: 13.7%
Safe D
Panhandle/West Texas:
TX-13 (Indigo): Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)
Already tied for the most Republican district in the country by PVI at R+29, the McCain percentage increases another 1.5%, just in case. Lucky for Mac because it was rapidly trending our way, after Obama received an impressive 23% of the vote in 2008.
McCain: 78.5%, Obama: 21.5%; Average R: 74.0%, Average D: 26.0%
White: 74.1%, Hispanic: 18.8%; VAP: White: 77.6%, Hispanic: 15.6%
Safe R
TX-17 (Olive): Open
Former Rep. Charlie Stenholm could make a comeback here. He served 13 terms in a 76% McCain district before losing in 2004 after being drawn into Neugebauer's district. Former State Rep. Joe Heflin won 2 terms in a 72% McCain district before an upset loss in 2010 and might be able to win here as well. I wasn't trying to make it one, but this ended up being majority-minority overall and barely white-majority VAP. This very well might be majority-Hispanic by the end of the decade, which means we wouldn't necessarily need a ConservaDem to win.
McCain: 64.0%, Obama: 36.0%; Average R: 62.9%, Average D: 37.1%
White: 45.4%, Hispanic: 43.4%; VAP: White: 50.4%, Hispanic: 38.2%
Tossup for Stenholm, Lean R for Heflin, Safe R for Generic D
TX-19 (Dark Salmon): Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock)/Mike Conaway (R-Midland)
I strengthened the most Republican district in the country (TX-13) to 78.5% McCain, only for this one to surpass it with McCain getting over 80% of the vote. Maybe Dennis Kucinich can move here and save the day, since the rural hicks are really just waiting for someone to stand up for their progressive values. As a side note, both Republicans Randy Neugebauer and Mike Conaway get drawn into this district, with both representing equal amounts of the territory, so this could be a fun primary to watch.
McCain: 80.3%!, Obama: 19.7%; Average R: 76.9%, Average D: 23.1%
White: 64.5%, Hispanic: 30.5%; VAP: White: 69.0%, Hispanic: 26.2%
Safe D if Kucinich runs, Safe R otherwise
Southwestern Border:
TX-16 (Yellow Green): Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)
This district stays roughly the same and remains safe for Reyes.
Obama: 65.7%, McCain: 34.3%; Average D: 62.3%, Average R: 37.7%
Hispanic: 80.7%, White: 14.3%; VAP: Hispanic: 78.2%, White: 16.5%
Safe D
TX-23 (Teal): Quico Canseco (R-San Antonio)
This district gets 10% more Democratic, so Canseco is toast. If Ciro Rodriguez wants to make a return, he'd be safe enough here that his poor campaigning skills won't matter.
Obama: 61.3%, McCain: 38.7%; Average D: 59.6%, Average R: 40.4%
Hispanic: 77.2%, White: 17.1%; VAP: 73.8%, White: 20.2%
Safe D
So, to sum that up: Joe Barton, Michael McCaul, Quico Canseco, and Blake Farenthold are all placed in districts that are at least 60% Obama and would get knocked out. Two more GOP incumbents would be knocked out via primary: Randy Neugebauer/Mike Conaway and Sam Johnson/Pete Sessions would be drawn together. So, 6 Republican incumbents would be knocked out and Democrats would for sure pick up 7 seats under this plan, which would result in a 21 R-15 D map. There is the new 8th, which is an open seat that we have a good shot at winning, so that would be 20 R-16 D. If the dominoes fall our way and we get some of the candidates I mentioned like Jim Turner or Charlie Stenholm, we could be able to also pick up two other open seats: the 17th and the 34th, which would be +10D and -7 R and a 18-18 map. If Chet Edwards runs again, we'd also have a good shot at unseating Bill Flores, which would be +11D and -8R and a 19 D-17 R map. Plus, if we're able to get a good recruit and knock off Louie Gohmert, then we'd have +12D and -9R, which would be 20 D-16 R. By the end of the decade, it wouldn't be that out of the question for Generic D to win districts 8, 11, 12, and 17 due to demographic trends. So, realistically by the end of the decade, even without the strong recruits I mentioned, we could have +11D and -7R, which would be a 19 D-17 R map. And if we get the strong recruits and they stay the whole decade, it could be a maximum of +13D and -9R, or a 21 D-15 R map.