I was curious to see how 18-29 year olds voted in 2010. Did they vote Republican or did they continue their trend of voting Democratic?
For example, if you were in college in 2004, you were more likely to have voted for John Kerry. In 2006, we see that younger voters helped elect Democrats (in many cases, these Democrats would have not won without 18-29 year olds). In 2008, Barack Obama owed several state victories to young turnout. By 2010, those college students from 2004-2010 would have left college and entered their mid 20s. Even in this very Republican year, these voters remained solidly Democratic.
Had these been the only votes that counted, 2010 would have been considered a midterm triumph for Obama and the Democrats, a vote of confidence in the President.
Governors races
Illinois
All ages: 47-46 Quinn (D)
18-29: 55-33 Quinn (D)
Difference: +8 D
Ohio
All ages: 49-47 Kasich (R)
18-29: 53-43 Strickland (D)
Difference: +6 D
Pennsylvania
All ages: 54-46 Corbett (R)
18-29: 55-45 Onorato (D)
Difference: +11 D
Wisconsin
All ages: 52-47 Walker (R)
18-29: 55-45 Barrett (D)
Difference: +8 D
Texas
All ages: 55-42 Perry (R)
18-29: 51-46 White (D)
Difference: +9 D
Florida
All ages: 49-48 Scott (R)
18-29: 59-39 Sink (D)
Difference: +11 D
South Carolina
All ages: 51-47 Haley (R)
18-29: 58-40 Shaheen (D)
Difference: +11 D
New Hampshire
All ages: 53-45 Lynch (D)
18-29: 62-34 Lynch (D)
Difference: +9 D
Iowa
All ages: 53-43 Branstad (R)
18-29: 50-46 Branstad (R)
Difference: +3 D
Connecticut
All ages: 49-49 Malloy (D)
18-29: 65-34 Malloy (D)
Difference: +16 D
California
All ages: 54-41 Brown (D)
18-29: 60-33 Brown (D)
Difference: +6 D
Arizona
All ages: 54-43 Brewer (R)
18-29: 48-46 Brewer (R)
Difference: +3 D
So younger voters came out to vote for Democratic Governors, even in very red states in a very red year.
We see the biggest differences based on age group in Pennsylvania, Florida, South Carolina, and Connecticut, where young voters favored the Democratic candidate by a margin of over 10 points higher than all ages did.
Senate races
Pennsylvania
All ages: 51-49 Toomey (R)
18-29: 61-39 Sestak (D)
Difference: +12 D
Ohio
All ages: 57-39 Portman (R)
18-29: 49-45 Fisher (D)
Difference: +10 D
Missouri
All ages: 54-41 Blunt (R)
18-29: 51-44 Carnahan (D)
Difference: +10 D
[Interesting to note that the very youngest voters supported Blunt, while 25-29 year olds voted 57-39 for Carnahan, the only group to do so.]
Wisconsin
All ages: 52-47 Johnson (R)
18-29: 53-46 Feingold (D)
Difference: +6 D
[Here we see again, 18-24 barely voting for Feingold while he wins 25-29 by a much larger 12 points.)
Florida
All ages: 49 Rubio (R) - 30 Crist (I) - 20 Meek (D)
18-29: 36 Rubio (R) - 33 Crist (I) - 31 Meek (D)
Difference: +11 D
[18-24 group went for the Republican by 1 point, while 25-29 went to the Democrat by 1 point.]
Illinois
All ages: 48-47 Kirk (R)
18-29: 59-33 Giannoulias (D)
Difference: +12 D
[18-24 was 56-36 Giannoulias, while 25-29 was 62-30 Giannoulias.]
Indiana
All ages: 55-40 Coats (R)
18-29: 55-42 Coats (R)
Difference: +2 D
Kentucky
All ages: 56-44 Paul (R)
18-29: 51-48 Conway (D)
Difference: +7 D
[18-24 voted for Paul, 52-47. 25-29 voted for Conway, 56-42, and they were the only age group in Kentucky to favor the Democrat.]
New Hampshire
All ages: 60-37 Ayotte (R)
18-29: 51-46 Hodes (D)
Difference: +14 D
House races
The national exit poll for the House shows that 18-29 year olds supported Democrats 55-42. The other age groups supported Republicans. The elderly supported Republicans 59-38.
My findings are that younger voters have consistently now, since 2004, voted for the Democrats.
You do see in CNN's exit poll that 18-24 year olds are not as Democratic as 25-29.
If you were 18 in 2010, you were 8 in 2000, when George Bush was first elected President and you were 12 in 2004.
If you were 25 in 2010, you were 15 in 2000 and you voted in 2004 (these youngest voters would have elected John Kerry). You were likely in your early 20s during the worst of the Bush years. This is the time when usually political beliefs begin to be formed. This mini-generation (25-29) seems to view Democrats much more favorably than Republicans and its probably because they associate Republican policies with George W. Bush's administration.
In the early 80s, younger voters became Republicans and we that today that same age group does support Republicans.
Do you think it's likely that the younger voters remain Democratic?