If the New York Democrats are good negotiators, this should be what the Congressional map will look like. The Republicans should get a huge Senate gerrymander in exchange for this map. Upstate, Bill Owens and Kathy Hochul get shored up considerably and are put in Kerry districts. Richard Hanna and Chris Gibson are drawn together into a new upstate GOP district, while Tom Reed gets a new Western New York GOP vote sink. In New York City, Anthony Weiner's old district gets eliminated and Joseph Crowley's district becomes a Queens-Bronx Hispanic-majority district, while all the other majority-minority districts are preserved. To the best of my knowledge, all incumbents except for Gary Ackerman live in their new districts. All population deviations are under 1000 and I tried to minimize city and town splitting, with the obvious exception of New York City.
Here's the map:
Long Island:
I focused mostly on incumbent protection, such as removing Randy Altschuler from the 1st and making Peter King's 4th more Republican to help out the other districts.
NY-1 (blue): Tim Bishop (D-Southampton)
Bishop swaps conservative Smithtown Township for slightly less conservative Islip Township. This makes the district .6% more Democratic, but more importantly draws out 2010 GOP challenger Randy Altschuler, who lost by just 593 votes and is running again in 2012. In the process, this likely becomes a Kerry district, as Bush won the old 1st by less than a percent. The PVI probably moves up a tick from even to D+1.
White: 77.9%, Hispanic: 12.7%; VAP: White: 80.0%, Hispanic: 11.3%
Obama: 52.0%, McCain: 47.0% (Current: Obama: 51.4%, McCain: 47.6%)
Lean/Likely D for Bishop; Tossup otherwise
NY-2 (green): Steve Israel (D-Dix Hills)
Israel sheds conservative Islip Township to the 1st. Some swingy and Dem-leaning areas in Nassau County are added, as the district must gain 38,000 people, which also makes the district .5% more Democratic. Still around D+3 or 4.
White: 61.6%, Hispanic: 21.2%: VAP: White: 64.3%, Hispanic: 19.5%
Obama: 56.6%, McCain: 42.6% (Current: Obama: 56.1%, McCain: 43.1%)
Likely D for Israel; Lean D otherwise
NY-3 (magenta): Peter King (R-Seaford)
King gets shored up a bit, as he must gain 72,000 people, and they are almost all Republicans. He picks up Smithtown Township from the 1st and the Five Towns area from the 4th, while shedding some Democratic precincts to the 2nd, helping to make the district 2.7% more Republican. As King was safe already, this is mainly designed to ensure a Republican holds it once he retires or seeks higher office and to slightly help out the neighboring Democratic districts. The PVI should jump from R+4 to around R+6.
White: 83.4%; VAP: White: 84.6%
McCain: 54.6%, Obama: 44.6% (Current: McCain: 51.9%, Obama: 47.3%)
Safe R
NY-4 (red): Carolyn McCarthy (D-Mineola)
McCarthy's district gets altered in a big way. The 5th has to go into Nassau County to stay majority-black, but it also grabs some Republican precincts to balance out the electoral effect on the 4th. In addition, the 4th must add 54,000 people, so it now must add a significant portion of Queens. The PVI should improve from D+6 to D+8 or 9.
White: 51.2%, Asian: 19.3%, Hispanic: 18.4%
VAP: White: 53.6%, Asian: 19.1%, Hispanic: 17.0%
Obama: 61.8%, McCain: 37.5% (Current: Obama: 58.0%, McCain: 41.4%)
Safe D
New York City:
Anthony Weiner's former 9th district is eliminated, Joseph Crowley's 7th becomes a Hispanic-majority district, and Gary Ackerman's 6th becomes plurality-Asian. The 9th's numbers are 55.3% Obama and 43.9% McCain, so most of the NYC districts drop a percent or two to absorb all the conservative ultra-Orthodox Jewish areas, but it really doesn't make any difference since all but one is over 70% Obama. The Bronx, Brooklyn, and Manhattan are all covered under Section 5 pre-clearance, so majority-minority districts should be maximized and retrogression should be avoided whenever possible.
NY-5 (yellow): Gregory Meeks (D-St. Albans)
Meeks' current district finished the decade at 49.4% black VAP and has to gain around 66,000 people, meaning Queens can no longer support a black-majority district by itself. The district must go into Nassau County in order to return to black-majority status, which it reaches by a mere 250 people. It also nabs some Republican areas to help out the 4th, causing the PVI to drop from D+36 to D+23 as a result.
Black: 50.2%, White: 26.5%, Hispanic: 15.6%
VAP: Black: 50.0%, White: 28.1%, Hispanic: 14.4%
Obama: 76.1%, McCain: 23.5%
Current 6th: 49.4% Black VAP; Obama: 89.0%, McCain: 10.7%
Safe D
NY-6 (teal): Gary Ackerman (D-Roslyn Heights)
Ackerman lucked out with the Anthony Weiner scandal, as his district was otherwise likely to be the one eliminated. Now he gets to stay in Congress in a D+16 district, up from the previous D+12. The necessary expansion of the Long Island districts moves his home into the 4th in this map, but he would still run here. This becomes the only district based entirely in Queens, which it absorbs much more of since the district must add 48,000 people. The district also moves from plurality-white to plurality-Asian.
Asian: 35.2%, White: 29.9%, Hispanic: 20.5%
VAP: Asian: 35.4%, White: 31.4%, Hispanic: 19.4%
Obama: 67.7%, McCain: 31.5%
Current 5th: 37.0% White VAP; Obama: 63.2%, McCain: 36.1%
Safe D
NY-7 (gray): Joseph Crowley (D-Woodside)
Crowley's district improves from plurality-Hispanic to majority-Hispanic, as most of the 50,000 people it adds are Hispanics. Making this district majority-Hispanic is likely necessary to gain pre-clearance. The PVI stays about the same, going from D+26 to D+27.
Hispanic: 52.6%, White: 18.1%, Asian: 13.8%, Black: 13.1%
VAP: Hispanic: 50.2%, White: 20.2%, Asian: 14.2%, Black: 13.4%
Obama: 80.1%, McCain: 19.4%
Current: 41.9% Hispanic VAP; Obama: 79.1%, McCain: 20.4%
Safe D
NY-8 (yellow-green): Nydia Velázquez (D-Brooklyn)
Velázquez remains in a similar plurality-Hispanic district despite having to add 45,000 people. The Hispanic percentage increases from the current version, so it shouldn't have any problems gaining pre-clearance. The PVI stays at D+33.
Hispanic: 49.0%, White: 22.9%, Asian: 13.5%, Black: 11.6%
VAP: Hispanic: 46.2%, White: 26.1%, Asian: 13.7%, Black: 11.1%
Obama: 85.9%, McCain: 13.4%
Current 12th: 41.3% Hispanic VAP; Obama: 86.2%, McCain: 13.1%
Safe D
NY-9 (cornflower blue): Ed Towns (D-Brooklyn)
The PVI drops from D+38 to D+32 in order to take on some Republican areas from the old 9th. Although the previous district finished the decade at 59.5% black VAP, it must give many black precincts to Yvette Clark's district in order to keep both at majority-black and in addition it must gain 40,000 people, so it should pass pre-clearance despite the retrogression. On a different note, Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries has formed an exploratory committee to primary the useless Towns and City Councilman Charles Barron is also likely to get in, which may allow Towns to skate by and pull a Dan Burton.
Black: 50.1%, White: 28.9%, Hispanic: 14.0%
VAP: Black: 50.3%, White: 29.0%, Hispanic: 13.4%
Obama: 85.2%, McCain: 14.4%
Current 10th: 59.5% Black VAP; Obama: 91.0%, McCain: 8.7%
Safe D
NY-10 (dark pink): Yvette Clark (D-Brooklyn)
I have never before seen a district where the VAP is majority-black, but the overall population isn't, although I have seen it the other way around several times because whites are growing at a slower rate. The old district ended the decade at 53.0% black VAP, but it has to gain over 85,000 people, so, like the other black-majority district, the retrogression won't keep it from achieving pre-clearance. The PVI drops from D+38 to D+35.
Black: 49.9%, White: 28.8%, Hispanic: 13.2%
VAP: Black: 50.3%, White: 29.1%, Hispanic: 12.6%
Obama: 87.8%, McCain: 11.7%
Current 11th: 53.0% Black VAP; Obama: 90.5%, McCain: 9.1%
Safe D
NY-11 (slate blue): Michael Grimm (R-Staten Island)
The Republicans could demand that Grimm gets shored up by taking all the Orthodox Jews from the 9th, but if the Democrats are good enough negotiators, they will insist that Grimm's district remains a marginal seat, since two safe GOP districts are being created upstate and both the Democrats who get friendlier districts, Owens and Hochul, are still in D+2 swing seats. Bensonhurst is added to the district, which gives it the 31,000 people it must gain without affecting its partisanship. Former Rep. Mike McMahon unexpectedly lost by just 3.3% in 2010 and could very likely win a rematch in 2012 in this R+4 district.
White: 62.1%, Hispanic: 15.9%, Asian: 13.7%
VAP: White: 64.8%, Hispanic: 14.1%, Asian: 13.7%
McCain: 50.5%, Obama: 48.7% (Current 13th: McCain: 50.6%, Obama: 48.7%)
Lean R
NY-12 (cyan): Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan)
Nadler's district was the biggest gainer in the state and was also the only one that kept pace with national population trends. The only minor changes are giving Bensonhurst to Michael Grimm and adding Manhattan Beach and the Ocean Parkway area from the old 9th. The PVI doesn't change much, going from D+22 to D+19.
White: 66.7%, Asian: 15.5%, Hispanic: 11.4%
VAP: White: 67.4%, Asian: 15.6%, Hispanic: 10.8%
Obama: 71.0%, McCain: 28.1% (Current 8th: Obama: 73.7%, McCain: 25.5%)
Safe D
NY-13 (salmon): Carolyn Maloney (D-New York)
In order to gain the requisite 65,000 people, it adds the area around Washington Square from Jerrold Nadler's district and takes Chinatown and Little Italy from Joseph Crowley's district. The PVI should stay around D+26 or 27.
White: 62.6%, Asian: 17.9%, Hispanic: 13.1%
VAP: White: 64.3%, Asian: 17.7%, Hispanic: 12.1%
Obama: 78.6%, McCain: 20.4% (Current 14th: Obama: 78.2%, McCain: 20.9%)
Safe D
NY-14 (olive): Charlie Rangel (D-Manhattan)
I just spent a good 20 minutes tinkering with the 14th and 15th to avoid retrogression in each, while still keeping the 7th at majority-Hispanic, which was extremely difficult since the districts had to gain 78,000 and 24,000 people respectively. It expands north to take some Hispanics from Eliot Engel's district. But, it's not exactly like increasing the Hispanic percentage by .5% is going to make a difference, especially in the two most Democratic districts in the country. The PVI drops one point from D+41 to D+40.
Hispanic: 46.5%, Black: 25.2%, White: 21.4%
VAP: Hispanic: 44.0%, White: 25.2%, Black: 23.7%
Obama: 92.1%, McCain: 7.2%
Current 15th: 43.8% Hispanic VAP; Obama: 93.2%, McCain: 6.2%
Safe D
NY-15 (orange): José Serrano (D-Bronx)
Not too much to say here. The PVI stays at D+41.
Hispanic: 66.5%, Black: 27.7%; VAP: Hispanic: 65.6%, Black: 28.1%
Obama: 94.5%, McCain: 5.2%
Current 16th: 65.5% Hispanic VAP; Obama: 94.8%, McCain: 5.0%
Safe D
Northern Suburbs:
Engel and Lowey remain in safe seats, while Hayworth's district remains swingy, as the Democrats won't let the Republicans lock in more than two of their 2010 pickups.
NY-16 (lime green): Eliot Engel (D-Bronx)
This district remains plurality-white, although the white percentage increases by 6%. I don't think this district is covered under the VRA, but if it is it should still gain pre-clearance because the drop in minority percentage allowed the 14th and 15th to avoid retrogression and allowed the creation of a new Hispanic-majority district. In addition, the district had to gain 39,000 people anyway, so the drop was probably inevitable. The only major changes are swapping Mount Vernon with the 17th for more of Yonkers and now containing all of Rockland County. The PVI drops from D+18 to around D+12, but is still safe for Engel.
White: 43.0%, Black: 26.4%, Hispanic: 23.5%
VAP: White: 44.0%, Black: 26.8%, Hispanic: 22.0%
Obama: 66.3%, McCain: 33.1%
Current 17th: 38.0% White VAP; Obama: 71.9%, McCain: 27.5%
Safe D
NY-17 (dark blue): Nita Lowey (D-Rye)
Lowey's district is now located entirely in Westchester County after shedding its portion of Rockland County to Engel's district. It also swaps most of Yonkers with the 16th for Mount Vernon and adds Peekskill and other parts of northern Westchester County, as it needs to add 43,000 people. The PVI increases from D+9 to D+11.
White: 59.8%, Hispanic: 19.8%, Black: 13.4%
VAP: White: 61.5%, Hispanic: 17.7%, Black: 13.5%
Obama: 63.8%, McCain: 35.3% (Current 18th: Obama: 61.7%, McCain: 37.6%)
Safe D
NY-18 (yellow): Nan Hayworth (R-Bedford Corners)
Hayworth's district moves north to take all of Dutchess County. It becomes 1% more Democratic, but it is largely unavoidable and it still went for Bush in 2004 and for the Republican Congressional candidate in 2010, so the Republicans would likely be okay with it. The PVI stays about the same, dropping from R+3 to R+2.
White: 75.3%, Hispanic: 12.8%; VAP: White: 77.3%, Hispanic: 11.4%
Obama: 51.7%, McCain: 47.2% (Current 19th: Obama: 50.7%, McCain: 48.4%)
Bush: 51.2%, Kerry: 47.2% (Current 19th: Bush: 54%, Kerry: 45%)
Lean R
Central & Northern New York:
Hanna and Gibson are thrown together and are given a safe Republican seat, while Buerkle's district is mostly kept the same. Hinchey and Tonko stay in similar safe districts and Owens gets helped out.
NY-19 (purple): Maurice Hinchey (D-Hurley)
Hinchey maintains an Ithaca-Binghamton-Hudson Valley district. He cut it surprisingly close last year, winning by just 5.3%, but prior to 2010, no opponent reached the 40% threshold against him since 1996, so he's probably fine. The PVI should stay at about D+5 or 6.
White: 79.1%; VAP: White: 81.5%
Obama: 58.7%, McCain: 39.8% (Current 22nd: Obama: 59.2%, McCain: 39.3%)
Kerry: 52.3%, Bush: 45.4% (Current 22nd: Kerry: 54%, Bush: 45%)
Likely D
NY-20 (light pink): Paul Tonko (D-Amsterdam)
The district gains the necessary 39,000 people by taking in the rest of Rensselaer County and most of Columbia County, the Democratic portions of Chris Gibson's old district. He sheds dark red Schoharie County and western Montgomery County to the new GOP district, but otherwise his district remains about the same as an Albany-based Democratic district. The PVI remains at its current D+6.
White: 79.6%; VAP: White: 82.7%
Obama: 58.5%, McCain: 39.6% (Current 21st: Obama: 58.1%, McCain: 40.0%)
Safe D
NY-21 (greenish): Richard Hanna (R-Barneveld)/Chris Gibson (R-Kinderhook)
In order to eliminate one upstate Republican, Hanna and Gibson get combined into one district. As part of the deal, the new district must be solidly Republican to ensure that they don't both get eliminated. Just in case, former Democratic Reps. Scott Murphy and Mike Arcuri are drawn out of the district. The PVI would be R+7, up from R+2 in each of the current districts.
White: 92.8%; VAP: White: 93.8%
McCain: 52.5%, Obama: 45.6% (Current NY-20: Obama: 50.7%, McCain: 47.7%; Current NY-24: Obama: 50.3%, McCain: 48.0%)
Safe R
NY-22 (brown): Bill Owens (D-Plattsburgh)
Owens is shored up and given a Kerry district. He drops all of his previous territory in conservative Hamilton, Fulton, Oswego, and Jefferson Counties and drops most of Lewis County. He adds swingy Washington County and most of swingy Saratoga and Warren Counties, each of which went for Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008. It also reaches an arm down to grab Utica and Rome, which allows the district to gain the requisite 53,000 people while remaining Dem-leaning. The PVI jumps from R+1 to D+2.
White: 89.0%; VAP: White: 90.0%
Obama: 54.0%, McCain: 44.4% (Current NY-23: Obama: 51.8%, McCain: 46.6%)
Kerry: 51.4%, Bush: 46.6% (Current NY-23: Bush: 51%, Kerry: 47%)
Lean D
NY-23 (aquamarine): Ann Marie Buerkle (R-Syracuse)
The district must add 49,000 people, so it picks up all of swingy Chenago, Madison, and Cayuga Counties. It sheds conservative Wayne County and replaces it with swingy areas of southeastern Oswego County and conservative, rural parts of Broome and Cortland Counties. After her narrow 648 vote victory in 2010, she's likely toast in 2012, especially if ex-Rep. Dan Maffei runs again. The district remains at D+3.
White: 84.3%; VAP: White: 86.6%
Obama: 56.1%, McCain: 42.0% (Current NY-25: Obama: 55.7%, McCain: 42.6%)
Kerry: 51.2%, Bush: 46.8% (Current NY-25: Kerry: 50%, Bush: 48%)
Lean/Likely D
Western New York:
Reed gets a safe seat that functions as a GOP vote sink. Hochul's district is shored up to D+2, while Slaughter and Higgins stay in relatively safe seats.
NY-24 (maroon): Tom Reed (R-Corning)
Reed becomes a big beneficiary of the whole Chris Lee debacle and gets a Western New York GOP vote sink. Just in case, Reed's 2010 opponent, Afghan War veteran and CIA analyst Matthew Zeller, who is likely running again in 2012, is drawn into Louise Slaughter's 25th district after he received a respectable 44% of the vote, outperforming Kerry and Gore in a GOP wave year. The PVI jumps from R+5 to R+10.
White: 92.6%; VAP: White: 93.3%
McCain: 55.7%, Obama: 42.8% (Current 29th: McCain: 50.5%, Obama: 48.2%)
Safe R
NY-25 (light red): Louise Slaughter (D-Fairport)
Slaughter drops the tentacle into Niagara Falls and Buffalo in order to help shore up Kathy Hochul, who also takes a small portion of Rochester. The district now includes most of Monroe County, since the district must add 106,000 people. The remainder of the population difference is made up by grabbing swingy areas of Livingston, Ontario, and Seneca Counties. Slaughter represented parts of Livingston and Ontario Counties for her first three terms in Congress (from 1986-1992), so these counties aren't entirely unfamiliar to her. The PVI drops a lot from D+15 to D+5, but she should be fine, considering she hasn't had a close election since unseating Fred Eckert 51-49 back in 1986.
White: 76.7%, Black: 11.2%; VAP: White: 80.0%
Obama: 58.0%, McCain: 40.7% (Current 28th: Obama: 68.5%, McCain: 30.3%)
Safe/Likely D
NY-26 (gray): Kathy Hochul (D-Hamburg)
The main reason for Hochul's victory was the disappearance of the Democratic enthusiasm gap. If you remember PPP's final poll that nailed the final margin, you might not realize its sample reported voting 47-42 for Obama despite being in a 52-46 McCain district, which means Hochul would have trouble holding this district, even with a 2008-like electorate. In order to protect her, I increased the Obama numbers by 7.6% and gave her a Kerry district. I also drew her home into the district, as she didn't even live in the old one. The district adds the rest of Niagara County, part of Erie County, and part of Rochester in order to gain the 43,000 people necessary to reach ideal population. This, in addition to shedding conservative Livingston, Wyoming, and Genesee Counties, helps swing the PVI from R+6 to D+2. She may face some competitive elections, but after seeing how well her special election campaign was run, I have a hard time seeing her losing.
White: 79.9%, Black: 12.0%; VAP: White: 82.5%, Black: 10.7%
Obama: 54.0%, McCain: 44.4% (Current: McCain: 52.2%, Obama: 46.4%)
Kerry: 50.3%, Bush: 47.7% (Current: Bush: 55%, Kerry: 43%)
Lean/Likely D
NY-27 (spring green): Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo)
The district must add 88,000 people, so it gains a large portion of Buffalo proper, which shores up Higgins by a few points so he isn't vulnerable against a moderate Republican in a GOP wave year. The PVI increases from D+4 to D+7.
White: 78.6%, Black: 11.4%; VAP: White: 81.6%, Black: 10.5%
Obama: 57.3%, McCain: 41.0% (Current: Obama: 54.2%, McCain: 44.0%)
Safe/Likely D