So. This morning, the Cut, Cap, and Kill Medicare bill died a quick death in the Senate. And Majority Leader Reid has said that the Senate will await a further bill from the House, because the Constitution requires that revenue measures originate there.
That's a bit of a fig leaf--Reid has a few House bills on the Senate calendar he could turn to if he needs to--but it looks as though he's telling Speaker Boehner, "After you, Alphonse."
The question is, how is all this going to play out? Let's think the current situation through a bit.
The reason for Reid's "After you, Alphonse" is that, as we all know, the House Republicans are the real obstacle to any serious agreement. Leader Reid is clearly not part of the Obama-Boehner negotiations; he just said as much on the Senate floor. He knows it's House Republicans who need to be brought along, so he's letting the President negotiate with Boehner only.
Reid seems to be hoping that President Obama will hold the line on revenues--and that the President will be able to convince Boehner to reach an agreement that is "balanced." Presumably President Obama convinced Leader Reid last night that the White House will hold the line on revenues. If so, then this raises serious doubts about whether Obama and Boehner will reach an agreement. But let's assume that they do. Probably sometime over the weekend.
Assuming that the agreement is a revenue measure, it goes to the Republican-controlled House first. There the issue of course is whether Boehner will be able to bring enough Republicans along to vote for a bill that Obama thinks is "balanced." At that point it will be the Obama-Boehner plan, so House Democrats will quite plainly not have been involved in negotiating it. Whatever plan passed muster with Speaker Boehner will not likely meet with the approval of Leader Pelosi and her caucus. So House Democrats will mostly oppose the "Obama-Boehner plan," and Speaker Boehner will have to come up with a majority of votes for it from within his own caucus.
Here's where the GOP revolution really starts to munch on its own.
The House GOPers will face a choice. Do they accept a serious deficit-reduction package that includes some tax increases? Or do they toe the no-new-taxes, no-debt-limit-increase line?
It is not really conceivable that whatever Boehner and Obama agree upon will be palatable to a majority of House Republicans. If the White House really holds the line on revenues, then persuading 109 House Reptiles to support the "Obama-Boehner plan" will likely be an impossible task. My bet is that Speaker Boehner fails to do this, and that the Obama-Boehner deal dies in the House. Probably next Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Thursday morning, the bond market swoons, the stock market tanks, and the Chamber of Commerce fires off a sternly worded letter.
Then the Senate has its day. With the House in utter chaos, Reid and McConnell step forward with their plan, or something like it. The Senate passes it on an extremely bipartisan basis--probably on Thursday July 28 or Friday July 29. It begins to seem as though adults are running Washington again.
Here's where things get really interesting. Timing, circumstances, and the national interest force Boehner to schedule a House vote on the Reid-McConnell plan, even though it is anathema to a majority of his caucus. Over the weekend, the GOP circular firing squad lines up. Arguments break out over whether the GOP missed its big chance to cut government, why they missed it, and who is to blame.
The debate on the rule for Reid-McConnell will be absolutely fascinating to watch. Order your popcorn!
But on Monday August 1 or Tuesday August 2, Reid-McConnell, or something like it, gets a rule and passes the House with a majority of its support coming from the Democrats. These votes marginalize House Republicans and make them look incapable of governing.
Obama signs the bill. And everyone heads out of town for vacation.
NOTE: Two things have to happen for this scenario to play out.
First, the White House has to hold the line on revenues. Did you hear that, President Obama?
Second, Speaker Boehner has to agree to a grand bargain that includes some revenues. Whether Boehner does this depends on whether Obama threatens to use the bully pulpit on things like the carried interest and corporate jets. And on whether Boehner sees a chance to strike a historic bargain that achieves some GOP goals. The scenario requires Boehner to get a little out in front of his caucus.
But assuming these two things happen, then the rest of the scenario probably plays out nicely.