Hey guys, this is my first diary so please dont be too harsh. A lot of Democrats here in Florida have been outraged by the actions of our crazy legislature and Governor but confused as to where our efforts would be best spent in 2012. Obviously protecting Sen. Bill Nelson and reelecting President Obama are our top priorities but gaining a seat at the table in the legislature is paramount to stopping the destruction of our state. Most political observers believe that there isnt a path to taking back either chamber, but this diary will attempt to point out a path to taking back the State Senate since every Senator is up for election in 2012 due to redistricting.
Let's move on to the districts:
District 14: Steve Oelrich (R-Gainesville)
This district has vexed party leaders since we lost it in 2006. Oelrich, a former Alachua County Sheriff, won the open seat that then-Sen and now FDP Chairman Rod Smith vacated in his failed bid for the Governor’s office. 2012 is arguably our best opportunity yet to take it back. Oelrich won by a 53-47 percent margin in 2010, no doubt helped by the low turnout in his home county of Alachua where the liberal bastion of Gainesville is located. Therefore, presidential year turnout in Gainesville certainly boosts our chances here. However, we must also learn from our previous recruiting mistakes, this time attempting to recruit a candidate from one of the more R-leaning counties such as Bradford County Sheriff Gordon Smith.
District 27: Lizbeth Benacquisto (R-Wellington)
This seat’s loss in 2010 was a bit of an anomoly. This seat hadnt seen a competitive election in a midterm year since at least before the last redistricting 10 years ago and the Republicans were helped by the subsequent drop in turnout among Dem-leaning Palm Beach County. Benacquisto is a tough opponent. Shes already raised an impressive amount of money and is a relatively low-key senator in a Republican conference known for its controversial ideas. To take her down in 2012, we need a candidate whos able to capitalize on Palm Beach presidential year turnout, while holding down the margins in R-leaning Lee County on the west coast. Maybe the still popular fmr. Sen Dave Aronberg could mount a comeback bid here.
District 7: Evelyn Lynn (R-Ormond Beach)
The popular Sen Lynn is vacating this seat due to term limits and the race to replace her has already started. Stretching from east Ocala to Volusia County, this district is a classic Fl swing district. Volusia County Chairman Frank Bruno is leading the fight for the Democrats here and is facing off against State Rep Dorothy Hukill. This one will certainly be one to watch, if we win this seat we likely will already be winning District 14 and 27.
District 3: Charles Dean (R- Citrus County)
This district is historically Democratic though in the past decade has grown used to voting for Republicans. Dean himself is a Dem-turned Republican and once ran for this seat as a Democrat way back in the early 90s. Our path is a bit tricky here, but cuts in state prison workers certainly helps us in a district where the state is a major employer. To win we need good margins in the Leon, Jefferson, Madison part of the district while keeping it close in the two population centers: Citrus and Marion counties. I never said this would be easy.
District 9: Andy Gardiner (R- Orange County)
This district is actually trending toward us. While still R-leaning, the explosion of Puerto Rican and hispanic growth in the Orlando area has considerably helped us compete in the region. To win we need to keep the margin in the Orange county part small while winning by at least 60 percent in Osceola. This is a district we need to be winning if we want to take the majority, though it may be trending too slowly for us to take it in 2012.
District 25: Ellyn Bogdanoff (R-Ft Lauderdale)
This is a really hard district for us. We’ve been trying to win this seat since the beginning of the decade, only to be disappointed come election day. We may be helped this cycle by the weakness (and craziness) of Allen West. If we win the congressional seat, it may be a good indicator that we can take this senate seat. We need a candidate who can do well in the wealthier moderate Republican areas in Broward and Boca Raton, like maybe Ft Lauderdale Mayor Jack Seiler.
District 17: JD Alexander (R-Lake Wales)
The hardest of the seats on our path to victory, there is both good news for us and bad news. The bad news is this is the seat of the current Senate Budget Chairman, and he will no doubt spend thousands to help keep it in Republican hands. The good news is its an open seat and looking at the 2008 results show that our candidate kept it close in most of the counties in the district while being heavily outspent. The controversial moves of the legislature may help us here as well.
There are other seats out there that may prove to be competitive in 2012 and redistricting may shift around some of our targets. The point is that a path to the majority exists and FL Democrats need to stop acting like we can't do anything to stop the Republicans.