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Senate:
• AR-Sen, AR-0?: Dem Gov. Mike Beebe says he's not considering a run for federal office after his second term ends in 2015, when he'll be term-limited out.
• AZ-Sen: Nathan Gonzales points me to this item of his from February of 2006, in which he said that Arizona political operatives were thinking former Surgeon General Richard Carmona might run for the 8th Congressional District… as a Republican. We mentioned the other day that Carmona said he's considering a Senate bid as a Democrat, but I don't think this one is actually too much of a head-scratcher. Carmona played the good soldier while he held his administration post (anyone who didn't quickly got canned) and only became a Bush critic after he stepped down in August of 2006. So I figure Republican politicos just had him pegged wrong five years ago.
• FL-Sen: Club for Growth prez Chris Chocola sounds kinda-sorta interested in the idea of Allen West for Senate, but it seems like he has no plans to recruit him. According to the Hotline's phrasing, all Chocola said was that he'd talk to West if he "decided to make the race" — and he added that "You have to have a candidate like a Rubio that warrants making that decision. We don't see anyone that's to the Rubio-caliber candidate."
• MA-Sen: Elizabeth Warren finally formed a Senate exploratory committee — no surprise, given that she's been ramping up for a possible bid for months now.
• WI-Sen: I just find this game of telephone especially weird given that we're talking about two brothers here. State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald says he thinks his brother, Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, is likely to seek the GOP nomination for the open Senate seat. Jeff's office didn't return Dave Catanese's call, but why is he having his big brother Scottie talking to the media for him?
Elsewhere in GOP-land… could Tommy Thompson at long last be ready to actually run for office? (Other than president, of course!) The Republican ex-gov has named two campaign "co-chairmen" (duties unspecified), one of them says Thompson will formally launch after Labor Day. My money is on Thompson losing the GOP nod to someone more acceptable to movement conservatives.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: Jeez. Sometimes you just can't make this shit up. From cn|2:
Republican gubernatorial nominee David Williams plans to proceed without a campaign manager for the remaining three months of general election campaign, he told Pure Politics in a interview.
Words fail… and so does Williams' candidacy. In related news, Dem Gov. Steve Beshear just picked up the endorsement of former Republican congressman Larry Hopkins (who also backed him in 2007) — and amusingly, Williams had once worked for Hopkins back in 1991. In what capacity? Why, campaign manager, of course.
• LA-Gov: Democrats do in fact have a candidate running against Bobby Jindal, and no matter how much of a Some Dude she may be, I'm just not going to mock teacher Tara Hollis, who at least is stepping up when not a single big-name (or even medium-name, or even minor-name) Democrat has bothered to do so. I will point out, though, that as of July, Hollis had raised about $4,000. Gov. Bobby Jindal has $8.8 million cash-on-hand. Anyhow, if you're curious about Hollis, there's more at the first link.
• MO-Gov: At this point, I have to imagine Jay Nixon almost wishes the now-infamous stripper story would go away as much as Peter Kinder does — almost. The more damaged Kinder gets, the more likely he is to get replaced by someone, well, less damaged, which Nixon probably doesn't want. Anyhow, I say all this because Kinder finally tried answering some questions about his relationship with the woman in question, Tammy Chapman, though he certainly didn't put a whole lot to rest. Kinder claims he stopped visiting the strip club where she once worked because "I came to realize that this is not consistent with my upbringing. I'm a Christian." Ordinarily, that wouldn't be a bad comebacker (at least, in GOP politics), but the fact that this all came up because Kinder ran in to Chapman at a bar known for its never-ending "pantless parties" suggests he didn't exactly have some kind of recent conversion on the road to Damascus. I think this one could still get worse before it gets better (for Kinder, that is).
• NC-Gov: In this month's installment of "Bev Perdue's numbers still suck," Tom Jensen points out that while her disapprovals have been stuck at around 48%, her favorables have gone up from 30 to 37 over the last six months. So having an unpopular Republican legislature as a foil seems to be helping a bit… just not enough.
• ND-Gov: Republican Gov. Jack Dalrymple still hasn't confirmed whether he'll seek a full term in 2012, though he says he's giving it "serious thought." Dalrymple was the state's long-time LG before getting elevated to the governorship after John Hoeven was elected to the Senate last year. The linked article notes that one teabagger, Paul Sorum, has already said he'll run, and ads that former state AG Heidi Heitkamp "is widely expected to run" for the Democrats (a statement that seems more optimistic than a lot of the previous scuttlebutt we've heard).
House:
• AL-01: Businessman Dean Young, a one-time aide to notorious former AL Sup. Ct. Justice Roy Moore, says he plans to challenge Rep. Jo Bonner in the Republican primary. Young briefly ran for Lt. Gov. last year before dropping out, and also lost a 2002 primary for Secretary of State; he might be a bit above Some Dude status, but perhaps not all that far.
• CA-21: Dem state Sen. Michael Rubio (previously mentioned here) will run in the new 21st CD, an incumbent-less seat which is shaping up to be the home of a very big battle. Assemblyman David Valadao is already running, and ex-state Sen. Dean Florez (a one-time mentor of Rubio's) is also interested. (Note: Dem Rep. Jim Costa does live here, but he said he's running in the new 16th.)
• IL-08: Assistant DuPage County state attorney Rick Veenstra says he's looking at a run in the redrawn 8th CD, even though it's nominally held by a fellow Republican, Joe Walsh. Walsh, however, has not yet said if he'll seek re-election there, and the Club for Growth seems to think he'll run in the 14th.
• IN-08: Teabagger Kristi Risk, who lost narrowly to now-freshman Rep. Larry Buchson in the GOP primary last year (33-29), says she'll try once again. I feel like there are quite a few first-termers who won their primaries with very weak pluralities, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a whole host of Republican primary challenges this cycle. (And we've already seen some threats emerge.)
• PA-03: Erie Mayor Joe Sinnott, whose name surfaced as a possible Congressional candidate back in March, says he won't run for the House. However, fellow Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper, the one-term congresswoman who lost this seat last fall, is still weighing the race.
• RI-01: An interesting piece from David Scharfenberg in the Providence Phoenix details the internecine Republican battle over the 1st CD GOP nomination. Former state police chief Brendan Doherty has been fundraising well and has the sort of non-partisan profile Republicans probably need to have any chance at winning in such a blue district. But former state Rep. John Loughlin, who lost to now-incumbent David Cicilline last year by six points, is determined to run again, and party faithful prefer his movement conservative credentials. In fact, they're even hoping to stymie Doherty by trying to close their primary. Could the GOP be embracing yet another opportunity to miss an opportunity?
• TX-36: As expected, Republican state Sen. Mike Jackson (previously mentioned here) will run for the new 36th CD.
Other Races:
• OH-SB5: Hah, man. John Kasich is so full of shit. With the anti-union legislation SB5 headed for a repeal at the ballot box this fall (according to every poll thus far), Kasich now wants to "compromise" with the labor groups that are leading the fight against the bill. But get a load of this:
Kasich said that the olive branch is offered not because he thinks his side will lose, but because avoiding a divisive fight is in everyone’s best interests.
Shah! Union leaders are standing firm and saying no negotiations are possible unless and until the legislature repeals the bill. There is one dark cloud on the horizon, though. Back in May, voters were ready to repeal the anti-union bill by a healthy 55-35 margin, according to PPP. Now that's shrunk down to 50-39. Hopefully a blip rather than a trend.
Redistricting Roundup:
• MA Redistricting: State Rep. Michael Moran, one of the legislators in charge of redistricting, didn't exactly say "no" when asked in a recent interview about scuttlebutt that Reps. Stephen Lynch and Bill Keating might be set against one another when Massachusetts loses its tenth House seat. His answer isn't really summarizable, so you should go read it if you're interested, except to note that he says "just by geography," it makes the most sense to consolidate the 9th and 10th CDs.
• ME Redistricting: According to the Bangor Daily News, that Republican redistricting plan would only move a net of 8,000 Republicans into the second CD, which would only make the district about 1% more GOP by registration. Diarist telephasic also crunches the Obama numbers (with a slight fudge factor) and finds a similarly minimal change. (Telephasic also corrects me on something I got wrong the other day: It looks like Maine law requires a two-thirds vote of the legislature for all redistricting plans, state and federal, so the Republicans will need some Democratic votes if they don't want courts to draw a new map.)
• UT Redistricting: Interesting — it looks like PPP isn't the only outfit to ask people their opinions on redistricting. In its recent poll of Utah, Mason-Dixon also included a question about whether voters prefer the "pizza pie" (cut Salt Lake County into three or four slices) or "doughnut hole" (make one Salt Lake-centric district). Respondents prefer dessert to dinner: They say they like the doughnut hole idea better.
• WV Redistricting: Acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin signed his state's new congressional map into law on Thursday morning. Work is still continuing on the state House map, which Tomblin vetoed, ostensibly for technical reasons.