The Georgia Legislature released Senate and House maps last week. While there will be some tweaking this week, especially with the House map, the end result should be pretty close to this.
The goal for Georgia Republicans is to get a 2/3 majority in the House and Senate. Here in the Senate, they need to add just one more seat to the current 36-20 map. I'm not an expert in Georga politics, but with a little research, I think my analysis ends up pretty good. If there's any additional info that I missed or got wrong, feel free to post it.
Here's a statewide view I drew up in DRA:
I'd suggest taking a look at the maps drawn up by the legislature for more detail:
Senate map
http://www1.legis.ga.gov/...
Metro area
http://www1.legis.ga.gov/...
Columbus and Macon
http://www1.legis.ga.gov/...
Savannah and Augusta
http://www1.legis.ga.gov/...
Here's the analysis:
SD-01
Republican Buddy Carter is safe in this Savannah suburbs district.
SD-02
Democrat Lester Jackson needs to add population, but this district remains safely Democratic. I think it is a fraction of a point under 50% black by VAP.
SD-03
This southeastern district remains relatively the same, which means it is still safe for Republican William Ligon of Brunswick.
SD-04
The district loses tiny Treutlen County to the 19th district. It remains safe for incumbent Republican Jack Hill.
SD-05
The district takes in a lot of minority areas around Norcross and Lawrenceville. 38% Hispanic, 26% black, 11% Asian. It is a Safe Democratic district. Current incumbent Curt Thompson lives in Tucker in DeKalb County, but he would probably run here anyway.
SD-06
This is one of the few districts that sees significant changes. The old district was contained entirely within Cobb County and contained a lot of minority areas around Smyrna and Mableton (35% black, 15% Hispanic). The new district straddles Cobb and Fulton Counties, stretching from Smyrna to North Atlanta and becomes 60% white. It goes from a 60% Obama district to a 51% McCain district. Incumbent Democrat Doug Stoner, who won by only 5000 votes in 2010, will have a difficult time being re-elected here. Leans Republican.
SD-07
Back to south Georgia...this district adds Ben Hill, Irwin, and Charleton counties. It is a safe Republican district for Greg Goggans.
SD-08
This district, like much of south Georgia, needs to add population (about 15,000 people). It adds 3 whole counties - Lanier, Clinch, and Echols - as well as the rest of Cook County. This causes the district to go from 54% McCain to 58% McCain. This is the home of party switcher Tim Golden. I would expect that if he can make it out of the primary, he would be safe here.
SD-09
This fast-growing district in Gwinnett County needs to shed 33,000 people. It sheds its minority areas to districts 5, 41, and 55. Going from 51% white to 64% white, it should be no surprise that the district becomes much more Republican (65% McCain, up from 55%). Safe for long-time incumbent Don Balfour of Snellville.
SD-10
This is a 67% black majority district that spans Henry and DeKalb. Safe for Democratic incumbent Emanuel Jones of Decatur.
SD-11
This district in the southwestern corner needs to add 20,000 people. This is accomplished by taking Thomasville from the 8th. That bumps the black population up to 31% and the district goes from 61% McCain to 58% McCain. However, this is still safe for Republican John Bulloch of Ochlocknee.
SD-12
The 12th needs to add more than 31,500 people. This is accomplished by adding Stewart, Webster, and most of Sumter County. The side effect of this is that long-term white Senator George Hooks is drawn into Freddie Sims' black majority (59%) district. This probably ends Hooks' career. The district is Safe Democratic.
SD-13
Yet another south Georgia district that needs to add people - about 20,000. The district pushes north and adds Dooly, Wilcox, Dodge, and part of Sumter County. It is safe for Republican John Crosby of Tifton.
SD-14
As mentioned previously, George Hooks of the 14th district is a casualty of the slow population growth in south Georgia. The district moves to Cherokee and Bartow counties in north Georgia. At 70% McCain, it is safe for whichever Republican decides to run here.
SD-15
The Columbus-based district needs to add 40,000 people. It takes 5 whole counties from the 14th - Marion, Schley, Macon, Taylor, and Talbot. 53% black majority, safe for Democrat Ed Harbison.
SD-16
The district just adds a few more precincts to equalize population. Safe for Republican Ronnie Chance.
SD-17
This district needs to shed a whopping 75,000 people. It loses black parts of Newton County to district 43, but also loses highly Republican precincts in Walton County. In the end, it's all a wash and leaves incumbent Republican Rick Jeffares of Locust Grove with a safe seat.
SD-18
This district finishes off the dismantling of the 14th by taking Upson and Peach counties. McCain percentage drops from 68% to 63% - but still safe for Republican Whip Cecil Staton.
SD-19
Central Georgia district picks up Telfair and Truetlen counties. Safe Republican district for Tommie Williams of Lyons.
SD-20
Central Georgia district that picks up more of Warner Robbins and loses 3 whole counties - Dodge, Telfair, and Johnson. Safe for Republican Ross Tolleson of Perry.
SD-21
The 21st sees some significant changes as it pushes east to accommodate the new 14th district. It is now eastern Cherokee and northern Fulton county. Senate Majority Leader Chip Rogers' home in Woodstock is still here and he is safe in this 72% McCain district.
SD-22
55% black majority Augusta district safe for Democratic incumbent Hardie Davis.
SD-23
This swing district flipped to the Republicans in 2010 when Jesse Stone of Waynesboro won after Democrat J.B. Powell decide to run for Agriculture Commissioner. That was under a 50% Obama district. The new district loses all of black Washington County and some Democratic precincts around Augusta. It picks up 4 whole counties - Johnson, Glasscock, Warren, and Murray. Black percentage drops from 40% to 34%, which causes it to go to a 55% McCain district. Probably one of 3 or 4 competitive districts in the state, but still Likely Republican.
SD-24
This district stretches along the eastern border with South Carolina. Safe for Republican incumbent Bill Jackson of Appling.
SD-25
Loses highly black Hancock County to the 26th and adds southwestern Walton County Black percentage drops from 34% to 28%. It goes from a 53% McCain district to a 59% McCain district, quite safe for Republican Johnny Grant of Milledgeville.
SD-26
Macon-based black majority district needs to add more than 34,000 people. It does this by taking Washington and Hancock counties to help Republicans in the 23rd and 25th. Black percentage actually drops a bit to 56%. Still safe for whoever wins the Democratic primary (incumbent Robert Brown resigned in May to run for mayor).
SD-27
The 27th is the most overpopulated in the state, needing to lose 90,000 people. It is now just all of Forsyth County (except for a tiny piece in the corner). At nearly 75% McCain, this seat is quite safe for Jack Murphy of Cumming.
SD-28
Republican Senate map drawer Mitch Seabaugh loses some of Carroll County and picks up the southwestern corner of Fulton County. McCain percentage remains 71%+, quite safely Republican.
SD-29
This district is directly south of the 28th. It picks up a couple precincts in Columbus. Still safe for Republican Joshua McKoon.
SD-30
The 30th needs to lose 40K people. It is now most of Carroll County with some outlying precincts in Paulding and Douglas. Safe for Republican Bill Hamrick of Carrollton.
SD-31
Needs to lose 30K people, so gets pushed out of Bartow County completely. Safely Republican for Bill Heath of Bremen.
SD-32
The 32nd adds some precincts in Cobb County for population equalization. At 65% McCain, quite safe for Republican Judson Hill of Marietta.
SD-33
The 33rd in Cobb County loses some Democratic precincts to the 38th. Goes from 58% Obama to 56% Obama, making it a possibility for Republicans to pick up. Long-term Democratic incumbent Steve Thompson won by only 7000 votes in 2010. Lean D with Thompson, tossup otherwise.
SD-34
60% black district in Clayton and Fayette counties. 78% Obama, very safe for Valencia Seay of Riverdale.
SD-35
58% black district spanning Douglas and Fulton counties. Democratic incumbent Donzella James of College Park no longer lives in this district, but I assume she will run here anyway. Safe Democratic.
SD-36
This eastern Fulton County district has seen its black percentage drop below 50% as blacks have moved out of this area. The district needs to pick up 28,000 people. It adds black precincts to get it up to 56% black. At 84% Obama, it is the most Democratic district in the safe. Nan Orrock is safe.
SD-37
This district is in the northwestern part of Cobb County. Republican Lindsey Tippins, who defeated incumbent John Wiles in the primary last year, is quite safe.
SD-38
This district is 30K people underpopulated, so it hops over the border into Cobb County to take away some black precincts from SD-33 and SD-06. The district goes from 57% black to 62% black. It is safe for Democrat Horecena Tate.
SD-39
This paper thin district sandwiched between the 36th and 38th needs to pick up 25K people and get back above 50% black by VAP. It is safe for Democrat Vincent Fort.
SD-40
This North Atlanta suburbs district is relatively unchanged. At 54% McCain, it is one of the swingier districts in the state. It leans R for incumbent Republican Fran Miller.
SD-41
This district becomes a black majority district (51% black by VAP) by pushing out of the whiter Druid Hills area and taking in black precincts in Scottsdale. It is safe for Democrat Steve Henson of Tucker. One side note is that 5th district incumbent Curt Thompson now lives in this district, but he'll probably still run in the 5th.
SD-42
This Decatur-based district is white majority but heavily Democratic (around 72% Obama). It is safe for Jimmie Carter's grandson Jason.
SD-43
The 43rd loses a bunch of black precincts in DeKalb and picks up about half of Newton County from the 17th. Black percentage goes from 73% to 58%, but it remains safe for Democratic incumbent Ronald Ramsey.
SD-44
The 44th gets pushed out of Henry County but expands into southwestern DeKalb. The base is still in Clayton County, where incumbent Democrat Gail Davenport lives.
SD-45
The fast-growing 45th needs to lose 80K people. It is now the northern part of Gwinnett County. It is safe for Republican Renee Unterman of Buford.
SD-46
The 46th splits Clarke County (Athens) with the 47th. In this edition, it loses some Clarke precincts to the 47th and picks up more of Republican Walton County. McCain percentage goes from 54% to 60%, making it safe for Bill Cowsert.
SD-47
The 47th picks up more of Clarke County while losing Oglethorpe to SD-24. It is still safe for Republican Frank Ginn of Danielsville even though McCain percentage drops from 66% to 61%.
SD-48
The 48th is composed of Duluth from DeKalb County and Johns Creek from Fulton. At 58% McCain, it is relatively safe for Republican David Shafer.
SD-49
The 49th takes in all of Hall County except for one small corner. At 73% McCain, it is beyond safe for Republican Butch Miller of Gainesville.
SD-50
The 50th is in the northeastern corner of the state. Another extremely safe Republican district for Jim Butterworth of Cornelia.
SD-51
The 51st in the north central part of the state is the most Republican district in Georgia. Safe for Republican Steve Gooch of Dahlonega.
SD-52
Barry Loudermilk's Rome-based district is safely Republican.
SD-53
Jeff Mullis' district in the northwestern corner of the state is 71% McCain. Safe Republican.
SD-54
The 54th is another 71% McCain district. Safe for Republican Charlie Bethel of Dalton.
SD-55
The 55th is a 62% black district that spans DeKalb and Gwinnett. Safe for Democrat Gloria Butler.
SD-56
The last district in Georgia is a 60% McCain district centered on Roswell in northern Fulton County. It is safe for Republican John Albers.
Summary:
This map is likely to get Republicans to 37 seats, if not 38. The 14th will go Republican for sure, the 6th is a decent possibility, and the 33rd is also vulnerable. Democrats best shots are at the 23rd and the 40th. By my count, there are 35 safe Republican seats, 17 safe Democratic seats, with the 6th, 23rd, and 40th as likely/lean Republican and the 33rd lean Democrat.