Well, for those of you wondering how the AB-52 vote turned out, and who missed jpmassar's and pat of butter in a sea of grits's diaries early today, I'm happy to report that: WE WON.
We not only won -- we swept, 6-3! Every single Democrat voted "aye", even the ones about which I had expressed concern. (I don't know whether Ted Lieu had planned on doing so all along, but this is an example of how cluing in the activists may make some sense. I would not have had to be, um, a little bit frantic and rude.)
So thanks to all of you who made calls this week!
Now -- where do we stand?
Some of what this Mercury-News story says is simple to summarize: the 6-3 vote; the significance of the bill in a state containing 11% of those with employer-based health insurance and 15% of those with individual coverage; the possibility that Gov. Brown could veto it out of concern for the multi-million-dollar cost of hearings and appeals. (Note: I don't think he will. Talk about false economizing!) The most interesting things are possibilities of opposition and of compromise.
The major news is that the author of AB 52, Los Angeles Assemblyman Mike Feuer, says that "he's been working with Senate Democrats on amendments that could help the bill win passage."
This is disappointing, but that's politics for you. Some "aye" votes may have been obtained at the price of promises to amend. I want Feuer (who I expect but don't know is working closely with Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones, who has sponsored this bill in previous legislative sessions) to stand as tough as he can while getting the bill passed -- but not tougher than that.
One of the constant disappointments in negotiations like these is that you don't really know who might be making threats to the bill's passage from the back room -- you won't know that unless you bring the bill up in its present form and see who follows through on a threat to vote "no." That has its value -- but passing a bill that has much of what we want has more value. This is where I tend to sit back and trust the good people we have representing our interests to negotiate. Yes, there is a kabuki aspect to this, but it does lead to real reform. And if you want to see who not to trust, you can always pay attention to more than someone's final vote on the bill, such as what they say in committee debate -- right, Assemblymen Charles Calderon and Jose Solorio?
The other big news is about the increasing breadth of the opposition. Could be kabuki -- but maybe not.
Groups representing insurers, doctors and hospitals oppose the bill, as do some broader business lobbies such as the California Chamber of Commerce. They've maintained a heavy drumbeat of lobbying, contending the bill would add to bureaucracy, delay decisions and regulate rates without addressing the rapid inflation of medical costs that drives rate increases.
The California Public Employees' Retirement System, the nation's largest public pension fund, voted last week to oppose AB52 because it could increase complexity and interfere in the giant fund's ability to negotiate health benefits. Brown's finance department told senators this month that the additional rate review would require more than 180 additional employees and could boost costs in 2012-13 by $57.7 million.
"Although AB52 has moved to the floor of the Senate, it is clear that the wheels on this misguided proposal are coming off in the closing weeks of this legislative session," Patrick Johnston, president of insurance industry group the California Association of Health Plans, said in a statement.
Backers of the bill include organized labor, advocates for low-income Californians and state Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones, a Democrat, who would gain regulatory oversight of rates along with the state Department of Managed Health Care. Proponents say dozens of other states allow regulatory oversight of health rates to protect consumers.
So there's the line-up of advocates -- and I'm very sad to see CALPERS on the wrong side. What's nice at this point, though, is that if the bill were to have been killed, this would have been the moment to do so most easily under the cloak of secrecy. Now -- even if in amended form -- it will go to the full Senate, and if it goes there it's doubtful how many Senators, even those under pressure from those opponents listed above, will have the guts to vote against it.
What do we do next? Well, if you want to know, do what I did and make Dave Jones your friend on Facebook. He seems to be keeping us pretty well informed -- and AB 52 keeps on winning. So far: five votes, five wins. The sixth one -- the full Senate -- may be the hardest.