Nothing cataclysmic (note update from Friday afternoon below that may indicate increased severity and potential impact), but August 5-6 we're supposed to be getting the second and third of the 3 CME's that have been directed our way by old man Sol in the last few days.
Each successive CME was travelling at higher speeds so they're bunching up.
The first has already arrived without too much concern.
The second and third, now thought to have essentially merged are scheduled to hit tommorrow.
Impact on the Grid, airline communications and GPS are expected, but projected not to be too severe.
A Bit more after the DK glyph.
2300Z, August 4, 2011 - The first of the three shocks arrived at 2155Z, about one hour ago. So far, only slight disturbances to the geomagnetic field, but there is plenty of action still anticipated. See a video of a SWPC researcher talking about this activity and what we can expect: Video
1500Z, August 4, 2011 - Great anticipation for the first of what may be three convergent shocks to slam the geomagnetic field in the next twelve hours, +/-. The CME with the Radio Blackout earlier today is by far the fastest, and may catch its forerunners in the early hours of August 5 (UTC) -- at earth.
Two impacts are expected; G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming on August 5, and potentially elevated protons to the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm condition, those piling up ahead of the shock. The source of it all, Region 1261, is still hot, so more eruptions are possible.
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Storm Warning for Aug 5th 2011
Solar Watcher - August 4, 2011 report
NOAA space weather update, August 4 2011
NOAA Today's Space Weather - August 5
As these events go, this looks to be on the high end of Strong, but not quite "Severe". You can see how they rank that kind of thing and what effects the various severity of events are projected to have here:
NOAA Space Weather Scales
Articles like this are what sparked my very non-professional interest in this:
NASA ScienceSevere Space Weather--Social and Economic Impacts
January 21, 2009: Did you know a solar flare can make your toilet stop working?
Space storm alert: 90 seconds from catastrophe
23 March 2009
by Michael Brooks
Space Weather: Hazard to Earth
Swiss Re
The Great Solar Storm of 2012?
Getting Ready for the Next Big Solar Storm
These don't look like they could trigger the kind of impact discussed in many of these articles and publications, but when storms like this are coming our way, it just seems like a prime time to alert people to what they can do if they have a little more juice.
Sorry. More of a diaryette, but gotta go.
Anyone want to make this into something more respectable please feel free.
Just wanted to get something out on the radar here because I did not see anything on it. Some traveling music for the road:
I'll Follow The Sun
Keep the Faith
ITW
UPDATE 1
National Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA reports:
Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
:Issued: 2011 Aug 05 0600 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 04 August follow.
Solar flux 116 and mid-latitude A-index 4.
The mid-latitude K-index at 0600 UTC on 05 August was 2 (18 nT).
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S1 level occurred.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G3 level are likely.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 2:35 PM PT: 1800Z, August 5, 2011 - The shock passed ACE just over 30 minutes ago; watch now for more geomagnetic and solar radiation storm activity.
(Z time converts to CDT (my zone) by subracting 5 hours - so that was the report at 1pm, Friday. )
CME IMPACT--NOW: NASA's ACE spacecraft, which measures the speed of the solar wind just upstream of Earth, indicates that a CME impact on our planet is in progress. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras in the hours ahead. Aurora alerts: text, voice.
UPDATE: Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab report a strong compression of Earth's magnetosphere in response to the CME impact. "Simulations indicate that the magnetopause separating magnetospheric and solar wind plasma is close to the geosynchronous orbit starting at about 19:20 UT on August 5th. Spacecraft [in these] orbits may be directly exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic field."
http://spaceweather.com/
Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 3:46 PM PT: Again, from the National Space Weather Prediction Center at NOAA, they seem to be upping the potential severity compared to previous reports.
Given that the speed of one of the later and stronger CMEs apparently resulted in it's arrival here right on top of one of the previous (also stronger) CMEs, the combined impact may be a bit tougher to predict.
Again, so far not a huge deal, but good to keep an eye on it.
Space Weather Message Code: WARK07
Serial Number: 32
Issue Time: 2011 Aug 05 2146 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater expected
Valid From: 2011 Aug 05 2200 UTC
Valid To: 2011 Aug 06 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G3 or greater - Strong to Extreme
The "Strong to Extreme" really caught my attention from this Friday afternoon alert from the SWPC. Why?
From the NOAA Space Weather Scales descriptions of potential impact depending on serverity:
G5
Extreme:
Power systems: widespread voltage control problems and protective system problems can occur, some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.
Spacecraft operations: may experience extensive surface charging, problems with orientation, uplink/downlink and tracking satellites.
Other systems: pipeline currents can reach hundreds of amps, HF (high frequency) radio propagation may be impossible in many areas for one to two days, satellite navigation may be degraded for days, low-frequency radio navigation can be out for hours, and aurora has been seen as low as Florida and southern Texas (typically 40° geomagnetic lat.)*.
Kp = 9
4 per cycle
(4 days per cycle)
G 4
Severe
Power systems: possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems will mistakenly trip out key assets from the grid.
Spacecraft operations: may experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.).
Kp = 8, including a 9-
100 per cycle
(60 days per cycle)
G 3
Strong
Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)*.
...
Fri Aug 05, 2011 at 5:56 PM PT: Given the increasing intensity of the current event, I'm adding more explanatory information and also updating with any new info I think is significant:
This explains briefly more about CMEs:
Q: Who is more likely to be affected by the impact of a CME with the Earth ?
A: A coronal mass ejection can affect various systems in different ways. In extreme cases, electrical currents can be induced in long metal structures, like power lines and oil/gas pipelines. Additionally, the high-speed charged particles of the CME can cause the buildup of electrical charge in metal structures in satellites; such buildups of electrical charge can be damaging to the sensitive electronic systems common in telecommunications satellites. Because of the possibility of damage to these vital and very expensive systems, advance knowledge of the likelihood of a CME is potentially helpful to the operators of such systems.
However, not all the effects of CMEs are bad. The beautiful aurora borealis and aurora australis (Northern and Southern Lights) are caused by the influence of CMEs with the magnetic field surrounding the Earth. Roughly speaking, this interaction with the Earth's magnetosphere forms a kind of magnetohydrodynamic dynamo -- like an electrical generator -- which can drive a flow of charged particles down into the atmosphere. A small part of the energy carried by this current of particles is dissipated in the generation of auroral light. (Most of the dissipated energy goes to heating the atmosphere, and to breaking apart the atoms and molecules in the atmosphere.)
...
Q: How long do coronal mass ejection events last? Is it a single burst of particles ejected from the Sun? Or does the event last for some time, like minutes, hours or even days?
A: Coronal mass ejections take off on the scale of hours, build up their speed to about a million miles an hour. The structure that passes the Earth does so in hours, just because it is a cloud that is fairly thick in its extent in the Sun-Earth dimension.. The event that it causes at Earth last longer, because it sets forces into motion at Earth that have their own timescale.
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/...