Going into 2012, we are once again assured of a dizzying roller-coaster election. The right-wing is hard at work trying to muddy the waters and confuse the public. The Serious People are busily trying to shape the narrative so that it somehow is all about their useless asses.
And the Tea has gone sour. Polling in the last few weeks reveals that the ephemeral Tea Party is probably over. The public doesn't like them anymore, their policies and positions have been revealed as petty far-right revenge-taking and John Birch Society lunacy; the GOP has been fractured between their almost-sane right business wing, and their almost-certifiable-as-in-straitjacket far right wing, and their evangelical wing is shaping up for a confrontation with the Tea Party wing (apparently, the 11 or so remaining Teabaggers in the country who admit that they are do not like Rick Perry's evangelical hooey).
The polls show that the public knows who just tried to shitcan our nation's (WORLD'S) economy.
The GOP has shown public remorse for nothing except their vote for the Ryan budget (and even then, I think they're only sorry that the public caught on to what it meant). They haven't changed by a whicker their positions that #1) American workers are lazy. #2) Unemployed Americans are obviously unemployed because they're lazy. #3) Jobs aren't nearly as important as cutting spending.
Fox News' house continues to implode, meaning that as the election heats up along with the numerous investigations of Murdoch, he's going to have precious little time to rig an election with his enormous media network. I don't think we can yet count Fox News out, but I imagine it will be a little easier to keep them off balance for the next few months. Especially if our candidates continuously talk down their credibility by mentioning the hacking of 9/11 victims (and possibly government officials) and the fact that Murdoch employs flying drones . . . . which ought to freak the fuck out of any decent American.
Obama is ahead in the polls of most incumbent Presidents facing a similar situation. Though this is not a continued guarantee, Obama has shown himself to be particularly resilient.
Some meta analysis: I have seen how people are frustrated that Obama is still talking about the deficit. Guys, are you all like total newbies? OF COURSE he has to talk about the deficit. If he doesn't, the GOP will talk for him and put words in his mouth. It's called taking their issue away from them. I'd far rather Obama take that issue away from the GOP and keep hammering on a real jobs program . . . which I believe will pique most voters' interests.
Finally, some meta-meta analysis. The GOP has nothing to sell this time around except fear. They sold hope in the last election and rewarded it with a full-frontal assault on the American worker. Win or lose in Wisconsin, I think the GOP's overreach has ignited a firestorm of public opposition to their programs and plans, and I think the one-sentence case that we can boil down the 2012 election to is this:
In 2008, we elected Obama President to fix our economy, and after 2 years we voters lost interest and let his Democratic majority slip away; it's time to return him and the Democrats to office to finish what WE started.