I just want to briefly point out a very significant flaw in Charles M. Blow's logic, in his column in today's New York Times. In assessing PBO's reelection chances, he makes an apples to oranges comparison that has no basis in reality. Unfortunately, I have seen this type of logic applied on all too many occasions, so I feel duty bound to point it out.
A Gallup report issued this week fond that the president's approval rating among both whites and Hispanics had dropped to the lowest point in his presidency...That should send ice cold shudders of fear through every Democrat because the leading Republican contenders for the job are either hopelessly hokey, obviously plastic, horribly misguided or some other form of terrible.
Essentially, what Blow is concluding is that given a poll indicating a low approval rating for PBO 14 moths from election day, we should conclude that Rick Perry (or possibly Mitt Romney) will be our next President. The flaw in this logic is that he is making an apples to kiwis comparison. There is no basis to conclude that every (or any) of the voters polled by gallup would select, for example, Rick Perry, over PBO in the general election, simply based on their stated dissatisfaction with PBO in a poll that offers no alternative, and in fact doesn't even ask the respondent to make a choice.
Now, we are 15 months out, and these numbers will change, but even if they didn't, ask yourself this: How does Rick Perry win a state like Florida given that he wants to dismantle Social Security? How, for that matter, does he win a state like Ohio with that position? Can it be done? Yes. Is it likely? No. Regardless of how voters feel about PBO on election day, in the abstract, who he is running against is a variable that will influence the outcome the outcome, and you cannot just dismiss it. In fact, PBO has been competitive in every poll I've seen that places him against a real live candidate.
Unfortunately, this type of flawed logic is applied all too often. Another example that springs to mind is a NYT column from Ross Douthat from a few weeks ago in which he essentially said that PBO's voter satisfaction ratings were so low that the voters in the Republican primary were electing the next President. Ironically, given Perry's debate performance, Ross Douthat is more prescient then he knows, because if Rick Perry is indeed the nominee, it will probably mean that the Republican primary voters have just reelected Barack Obama.
I recognize that people can, and do have differences of opinion as to this President. Regardless, the law of gravity still applies. You can't make chicken salad from chicken feathers and the fact remains that the no one from current slate of Republican candidates is likely ever to be President, because the issue, come election day, is not how voters feel about PBO, it's how they feel about the alternative.