Peter Kinder & Tammy Chapman
Public Policy Polling (PDF). 9/9-12. MoE ±3.9%. Missouri voters (
4/28-5/1 results):
Jay Nixon (D-inc): 50 (48)
Peter Kinder (R): 31 (34)
Undecided: 18 (13)
Jay Nixon (D-inc): 39 (--)
John Danforth (R): 45 (--)
Undecided: 17 (--)
Jay Nixon (D-inc): 47 (--)
Jim Talent (R): 38 (--)
Undecided: 14 (--)
Jay Nixon (D-inc): 50 (48)
Matt Blunt (R): 37 (38)
Undecided: 13 (13)
Jay Nixon (D-inc): 45 (--)
Bill Randles (R): 24 (--)
Undecided: 30 (--)
First the good news. Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, who in the last two months has gone from merely being "that guy that's kinda weird and gaffe-prone" to "that guy who was obsessed with that stripper," is losing further ground in the polls. Incumbent Dem Gov. Jay Nixon was leading Kinder by 14 in May; now Nixon leads by 19 (and sports a pretty solid 51/30 approval, including 57/26 among independents, while Kinder is at 20/33 favorables). My main worry at this point is that the results here may be too good for us... not that they're unrealistic, but because the GOP might at this point finally be readying its very-long-hook to yank Kinder off the stage for good and find someone else while there's still a year to go. (Even before his little stripper problem, there was already a lot of behind-the-scenes grumbling about his underwhelmingness, and that's just intensified now.)
None of the other potential GOP saviors seems poised to save the race, though. The one person, out of PPP's laundry list of top-tier but unemployed Republicans in the state, who beats Nixon is long-ago former Sen. John Danforth, one of those guys like Dick Lugar who's well-thought-of by just about everyone. Danforth, however, just took his name out of contention last week. Lesser options like ex-Sen. Jim Talent and ex-Gov. Matt Blunt both trail by a significant margin. Finally, there's Some Dude Bill Randles, who trails Nixon by about the same margin at Kinder (21), which, considering that Randles is utterly unknown at 6/19 favorables, should indicate just how low Kinder's stock is right now. Could we be looking at a Nixon/Randles race in a year, though? Well, at this point in 2009, would anyone have expected Dan Maes to be carrying the Republicans' banner in Colorado?
Senate number (May numbers):
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 43 (45)
Sarah Steelman (R): 42 (42)
Undecided: 16 (14)
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 45 (46)
Todd Akin (R): 43 (45)
Undecided: 12 (8)
Claire McCaskill (D-inc): 46 (47)
John Brunner (R): 37 (41)
Undecided: 17 (12)
Now for some middlin' news, in the Senate race... Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill is posting tiny leads against her likeliest Republican rivals. On the one hand, that's good, because as Barack Obama's approvals have eroded over the summer, it doesn't seem to have rubbed off much on this race, where (like Virginia) the margins have been paper-thin all along and will probably continue to do so for the next year absent a major unexpected event.
On the other hand, it's not good, because McCaskill is polling at or below 45 (Is 45 the new 50? In terms of relative electoral safety, that is. Discuss.), and she's running at 43/47 approval. The ratio of undecideds leans heavily in the Republican direction (for example, in the McCaskill/Steelman matchup, 7% of Democrats are undecided while 19% of Republicans are), meaning the undecideds are likely to break away from her, which she can't afford when the margins are that close. Chances are she'd lose if the election were literally today. One other interesting observation: despite the general presumption that Rep. Todd Akin is the Republican frontrunner here, this poll doesn't find him looking that imposing. It actually gives a small electability edge to ex-state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, though only by an inconsequential 1 point.
Presidential numbers (May numbers)
Barack Obama (D-inc): 43 (43)
Mitt Romney (R): 47 (45)
Undecided: 10 (12)
Barack Obama (D-inc): 45 (--)
Rick Perry (R): 47 (--)
Undecided: 8 (--)
Barack Obama (D-inc): 47 (45)
Newt Gingrich (R): 45 (44)
Undecided: 8 (10)
Barack Obama (D-inc): 47 (--)
Michele Bachmann (R): 43 (--)
Undecided: 10 (--)
Now for some bad news, in the presidential race... Barack Obama trails the two likeliest Republican nominees. Maybe it's not that bad, though, considering that Missouri is a state he lost in 2008, more of a Lean R state than a bellwether anymore at the presidential level. So for 2012, winning Missouri would be unlikely icing on the cake of a landslide rather than an urgent part of the path to 270, and lagging only a few points behind where he lost it (by less than a point) to John McCain is predictable, if not a little better than would be expected right now, given his 43/53 approvals (including 37% among whites). Obama has a 41% approval among indies, but that's much better than any of his opposition (Mitt Romney fares best with 28% favorables), so that's what's keeping him competitive in this light-red state.