I've made little secret of my belief, around these parts, that Annapolis will fail to agree on an acceptable 7-0-1 or 8-0 map. I don't believe the Eastern Shore will be split. I don't believe African American legislators will appreciate the VRA being treated as a joke by cutting one or both of the black-majority districts in the state to 50.1% or 50.2% black VAP.
That being said, it's entirely possible to draw a solid 7-1 that gives all Democratic incumbents districts they can be comfortable representing and being reelected to, adds a third minority-majority district, and screws both Republican incumbents in a horrible way.
A few months ago, I showcased my "right angle" map. This is a redrawing of that map. The basic layout is the same, but it's been tweaked somewhat. I think it's gotten better.
Here’s the main map.
MD-01 (blue): Rep. Andy Harris (R-Cockeysville) – 37.6% Obama, 60.4% McCain
This district includes Allegany, Caroline, Dorchester, Garrett, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico and Worcester counties and parts of Baltimore, Carroll, Cecil, Frederick, Harford, and Washington counties. Its population is roughly split three ways between the Eastern Shore, the Baltimore exurbs, and Western Maryland. I consider the freshman Harris to be this district’s nominal incumbent, because he represents it now, but his home is actually outside of the district, and he would almost certainly face a tough primary due to how spread-out this district is and how many Republicans in places like the Shore and the Panhandle (neither of which is his geographic base) badly want to move up in a state that is becoming increasingly unfriendly to them. Harris might not be the nominee, then, but whoever the Republicans put up will be this district’s representative. I believe it’s the most Republican district that can be drawn in Maryland without splitting the Eastern Shore proper (Cecil County is sometimes counted as being on the Shore, but it’s also often considered a Baltimore exurban county). I think you could make it more Republican by a few tenths of a percent by splitting precincts around Bel Air and Elkton, but DRA doesn’t currently support that. Safe Republican.
MD-02 (green): Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville) – 58.3% Obama, 39.7% McCain
This district includes parts of Baltimore City and Baltimore, Cecil, and Harford counties. It uses considerable holdings in Baltimore City to absorb some very Republican territory in the exurbs, though most of the communities it includes in the counties are blue, purplish, or just not as blood red as the precincts packed into MD-01. A professional redistricting tool could probably stuff Elkton into this district in exchange for some conservative parts of precincts north of Bel Air and in Baltimore County, and that might pump up the percentage of this district that then-Sen. Barack Obama won in 2008 to closer to 59%. Either way, it’s safe for Democrats, who can always rely on the Democratic machine in Baltimore City to get voters to the polls. It’s also worth noting that Baltimore County is trending Democratic in a meaningful way. Ruppersberger is safe here, especially if his neighbor Harris makes the mistake of trying to run here instead of in MD-01 (unlikely). Safe Democratic.
MD-03 (purple): Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Towson) – 58.7% Obama, 39.2% McCain
This district includes parts of Baltimore City and Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard, and Prince George's counties. It’s marginally stronger than MD-02, a slight reversal from the current drawing, due to its inclusion of Laurel and South Laurel in northernmost Prince George's County, which might actually be the most controversial element of the map as far as Democrats are concerned (though Laurel, which straddles the county line, is often considered a suburb of both Baltimore and Washington, D.C.). Sarbanes should be just fine here, with his political organization inherited from his father, former Sen. Paul Sarbanes, keeping away serious primary challengers from Columbia or Laurel, and Republicans struggling to cope with both a blue trend in Baltimore County and a badly depleted bench in the area. Safe Democratic.
MD-04 (red): Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Fort Washington) – 75% Obama, 23.9% McCain [51.5% black-majority VAP]
This district includes parts of Anne Arundel and Prince George’s counties. Edwards, bless her, has reportedly taken a surprising lead role in redistricting discussions, persuading the governor’s office to favor a more aggressive approach than they might have otherwise. Edwards also volunteered to not just talk the talk, but also walk the walk, inviting a more conservative, less black district in order to give the Democrats an advantage. As such, this district gives up some of the diverse suburbs in Montgomery and Prince George’s counties in order to fling a bulky arm eastward into Anne Arundel County all the way to Chesapeake Bay, sopping up Republican exurbs between Baltimore and Annapolis. It remains black-majority, though it drops a few points, and is entirely secure for the woman who will hopefully be Maryland’s next senator or governor. Safe Democratic.
MD-05 (gold): Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville) – 63% Obama, 35.7% McCain
This district includes Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s counties and parts of Anne Arundel and Prince George’s counties. Its representative, House Minority Whip Hoyer, was the devil on Gov. Martin O’Malley’s shoulder to Edwards’s angel, arguing for a milquetoast 7-1-1 approach in which the swing district would have been an Eastern Shore–based district intended for former one-term Democratic Rep. Frank Kratovil, the son of one of Hoyer’s old buddies and one of the least loyal Democrats of the 111th Congress. No thank you. Hoyer, owing to his seniority and position in leadership, still wields enormous influence in Maryland, and I think he can hold out for College Park and its environs so he can keep setting up photo ops on the University of Maryland’s flagship campus, taking credit for federal funding for new and upgraded research facilities, and pretending to live in Prince George’s County instead of St. Mary’s County whenever it suits him. I figure he will also probably prefer to take Annapolis if MD-01’s weird tentacle across the Bay Bridge is eliminated, as it is on this map, rather than surrendering that dot of blue with its politically powerful denizens to Edwards or Sarbanes. This district is, of course, tailored to Hoyer perfectly and will reelect him until he retires or drops dead. Safe Democratic.
MD-06 (teal): OPEN – 66.2% Obama, 32.3% McCain [47.7% white-plurality VAP]
This district includes parts of Frederick, Carroll, Montgomery, and Prince George’s counties. It uses a significant chunk of the D.C. suburbs to swamp Republicans in northern Maryland, while remaining materially clear of the Baltimore suburbs. It’s also very exciting, because it’s an all-new open seat that provides an opportunity for a black or Latino Democrat, though a white Democrat would probably win a primary in which the black community rallied behind a black candidate, the Latino community rallied behind a Latino candidate, and white Democrats preferred one of their own. The likes of Jamie Raskin, Anne Kaiser, and Robert J. Garagiola could run here, though I’m not sure whether Raskin and Garagiola live in the district or just over the line into another, and I’ve been told that Kaiser doesn’t seem interested at this time. Whoever the Democrats nominate will win, of course. Safe Democratic.
MD-07 (orange): Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore) – 74% Obama, 24.7% McCain [52.4% black-majority VAP]
This district includes parts of Baltimore City and Baltimore, Carroll, and Howard counties. I managed to, after some retooling, give Cummings a blacker district than Edwards has, as Cummings has not publicly confirmed (as Edwards has) that he would be happy with a whiter district if it means putting the screws to the floundering Maryland Republican Party. Especially considering that a solid majority of whites in a district like this are likely Republicans from the counties, this district is very safe for an African American Democrat, and I think Cummings can get elected here for as long as he wants to stick around. Safe Democratic.
MD-08 (magenta): Reps. Chris Van Hollen (D-Kensington), Roscoe Bartlett (R-Buckeystown) – 62.2% Obama, 36.2% McCain
This district includes parts of Frederick, Montgomery, and Washington counties. It also royally screws the octogenarian Bartlett. Van Hollen might not be thrilled to get an I-270 district that reaches as far north as Hagerstown, just shy of the Pennsylvania state line, but he can certainly deal with it. I figure Bartlett would probably retire rather than try to run here (or in MD-01), and this district would be safe for a Democrat, with a shot at electing a Frederick County Democrat if Van Hollen seeks greener pastures in 2014 or 2016. Safe Democratic.
That split should yield a 7-1 result in every election cycle without fail, unless there’s a particularly bizarre circumstance.
Thoughts on the map, not on whether Annapolis should go for a more aggressive plan?