On February 3, 2002, Tom Brady led a last minute 54 yard drive to get the Pats in position for a game winning FG against the Rams. Prior to that drive he had struggled against the Rams 3rd ranked defense and finished the day 16-27 for 145 yards and a TD, good for a QB rating of 86.2. For this performance he was awarded the Super Bowl MVP award.
On January 15, 2012, Joe Flacco got his team into the endzone twice on a day when his O-line struggled against the Texans #2 defense and the running game was being regularly stuffed at or near the line of scrimmage. After starting 5-16 he completed his next 9 passes in a row and finished the game 14-27 for 176 yards and 2 TDs, good for a QB rating of 97.1. For this performance Joe was widely criticized as being nothing more than a game manager and called the luckiest SOB in sports for having his defense save him.
I think it's the name. "Flacco" - it sounds funny. It's easy to make up nasty digs. He's also not Mr. Hollywood or anything, kind of geeky looking, has the unibrow thing going on - not your American Idol of quarterbacks by any means. I doubt he'll ever be invited to Dancing With the Stars. Everybody says, "Joe's numbers are down this year - he's having an off-year," yes ... and Joe has played 11 of his 16 regular season games against top 10 defenses, average opponent's pass defense ranking is 8.3. The worst team he faced all year was ranked #17 against the pass. For Brady that average opponent number was 15.75, for Rodgers it was 19.3, 14 of 16 Packers games were against teams worse against the pass than the easiest the Ravens played. Just for some perspective on the stats.
Last year in Foxborough Flacco outplayed Brady by a significant margin, 27-35, 285 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 119.3 rating, versus 27-44, 292, 1 TD 2 INT, 69.5 rating. Since then the Patriots have added new offensive weapons while the Ravens passing defense has gone from #20 to #4. The Ravens have also added offensive weapons and the Patriots passing defense has gone from being ranked in the mid 20's to #31, the second worst regular season performance in the history of the NFL, this year's Packers being the worst ever.
Also, the Patriots have yet to beat a team that currently holds a record better than .500. Each time they beat the Broncos they were above .500 for the moment, but they are now at 9-9. The only teams the Pats faced with winning records were the Giants(11-7) and the Steelers(12-5). They lost to both. Conversely, the Ravens have played 8 games against teams with winning records and are 7-1 in those games, the only loss being to the Titans at 9-7.
For all of these reasons I fully expect the Ravens to win this game, perhaps by as many as three scores. Just because the Pats were able to run up the score on the hapless Broncos last week doesn't mean they can do that against the Ravens. And just because the Ravens struggled to move the ball against the Texans #2 defense doesn't mean they'll have trouble against the Pat's #31 defense. 35-20 Ravens.