Polls are closed in Florida, and we're liveblogging the results of the Republican presidential primary.
Results: AP (By county) | CNN | Google | Politico
4:31 PM PT: Remember, the story of the night isn't so much that Rommey is going to win big, but it's HOW he won big:
Here’s all you need to know about the Florida campaign: amidst the blizzard of campaign ads there was only one positive pro-Romney ad — a single Spanish language TV ad.
That’s right. Mitt Romney and his allies spent more than $15 million on TV ads — only one was positive and it was in a foreign language. It ran a total of 15 times statewide.
Negative campaigning works, and blowing your opponent out of the water works. It also helps that your opponents is a troll that no one likes, And if no one likes you? Who cares! Just make sure everyone likes your opponent even less.
THAT's how Romney won Florida.
4:33 PM PT:
Ideal outcome tonight: Newt gets enough votes to stay in, but loses badly enough to become FURIOUS NEGATIVE AD HULK NEWT! #popcorn
— @drgrist via TweetDeck
4:35 PM PT (David Nir): And the flipside of Markos's post above—about how Romney won by going negative—is that Mitt hasn't been hit with nearly the barrage of negative ads he's dished out. Assuming he's the GOP's nominee, he'll face hundreds of millions of dollars worth of negative ads—and his favorables already suck.
4:35 PM PT:
46 more states to go, minus the ones in which Newt Adelson didn't qualify for the ballot.
— @KagroX via TweetDeck
4:36 PM PT: CNN wonders, "we'll see if we can call this at 8 o'clock". Will they? The suspense is killing me!
4:40 PM PT (Steve Singiser): There is one place where Newt is doing rather well, but it is a small consolation to him. He is either leading or right in the hunt in the group of counties huddled against the southern border of Georgia. The good news? Perhaps some predictive value for how the South will vote down the line. The bad news? These counties are small, and his leads are rather weak. In the only county with all the precincts in (Liberty County), Newt's win was a 43-25 victory over Romney.
4:40 PM PT (David Nir): Politico: 28% in, Romney 439K votes; CNN: 36% in, Romney 446K votes. No, I can't explain that either.
4:41 PM PT (David Nir): Scratch that. CNN had 46% in, not 36%, when I wrote that, so their "reporting" gulf with Politico is huge, but the vote spread is small.
4:42 PM PT:
4:46 PM PT: So Mitt will win easily tonight. If he could hit 50%, it would be the first time he's come anywhere near showing majority support. If he can beat the next two not-Romneys, that would be a solid showing as well.
Currently, it's Mitt 48, Gingrich-Santorum 44
4:46 PM PT (Steve Singiser): Gingrich's strength is mostly contained in the "deep South" part of Florida, up near the Georgia border. But he does have one county down South where he has a shot: in smallish Hendry County (in south-central Florida), Romney and Gingrich are practically dead even, with 96 percent of precincts reporting.
4:47 PM PT (David Nir): I think the key question now is whether Romney's total exceeds that of Gingrich and Santorum combined. Right now, it's 48% R, 44% G + S. Still, neither Santorum nor Newt seem likely to drop out and endorse the other one.
4:47 PM PT:
Both Newt and Mitt's unfavorables get any lower they'll be able to pick Cheney as their running mate for a little likeability.
— @LOLGOP via TweetDeck
4:49 PM PT (David Jarman): Mitt's best county: Collier County (he's at 64% there). Home to Naples, and a lot of wealthy, elderly, WASPy former northeasterners. On the other hand, Alachua County is surprisingly close (and it's almost done reporting): Newt and Mitt are both at 37. That's where Gainesville (and Univ. of Florida) are.
4:54 PM PT (David Nir): CNN's live map shows very clearly where each candidate's strengths lie (dark red is Romney, light red is Gingrich): Mitt in the central and southern parts of the state, Gingrich in the northern areas that are actually traditionally more "Southern":
4:56 PM PT:
Newt will drop out tonight if he's given command of Deep Space Nine.
— @pandagon via web
4:57 PM PT (David Jarman): Romney is overperforming his 2008 numbers almost everywhere, but especially in the Miami area. Most of all in Miami-Dade County, where he got 16% in 2008 and now has 64%! (McCain cleaned up in Miami-Dade last time, but looks like Romney grabbed most of those McCain voters this time... and that's despite Gingrich trying to stake out a softer immigration position than Romney this time.) Likewise, Romney had 24% in Broward (now 53%) and had 30% in Palm Beach (58%).
4:57 PM PT (Kaili Joy Gray): The liveblogging continues in the next thread.