I was feeling curious the other day about how far one can go in gerrymandering Maryland. The maximum one can go right now (with eight Congressional districts) is 8D-0R, but with some pretty insane line-drawing and pissing off incumbents and key political machines. Therefore, Gov. O'Malley opted to go with a 7-1 map that made use of Montgomery County's rising Democratic political power. He wanted to make MD-01 (Andy Harris-R) a swing seat, but that required extending it into Baltimore or Prince George's County. Both party machines were loathe to this and he decided to play it safe and go with the less-controversial 7-1 map. One thing I learned when he was weighting whether to go 7-1 or 7-0-1 was that O'Malley was willing to cut the Eastern Shore in half to help make MD-01 swingy on paper.
For this diary, I decided to go out on a limb and do a hypothetical redistricting in an alternate universe where Maryland gained its ninth Congressional district in 2010. Here, I aggressively gerrymandered the state to create a likely 8-1 map that will satisfy incumbents for the most part and only piss off one Dem constituency. I made use of water contiguity and even touch-point contiguity.
More below the fold.
Statewide Map
Baltimore Area
Montgomery County Zoom-In
Southern Maryland
MD-01 (blue): OPEN
54.3% Obama/44.3% McCain
55.5% Avg D/45.5% Avg R
VAP: 24.9% Black
The Prince George's County political machine will not like this at all. This district spans from Ocean City in the east, takes in Annapolis, and extends two arms into Prince George's County. It's unfortunate that it has to do that, but hopefully the Democratic party machines elsewhere can make up for a lack of support by PG County legislators and pass it this way.
LEAN D
Possible Dem candidates: Ex-Congressman Frank Kratovil, State Senator James Mathias, and State Senator James DeGrange
MD-02 (green): Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Towson)
64.4% Obama/33.7% McCain
67.7% Avg D/32.3% Avg R
VAP: 25.9% Black
This district has Towson and part of Baltimore in it so it is Sarbanes' district. It now goes to the D.C. border. (Side note: My girlfriend lives in this district!)
SAFE D
MD-03 (dark magenta): Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville)
61.2% Obama/36.8% McCain
63.5% Avg D/36.5% Avg R
VAP: 30.1% Black
This district has Cockeysville and part of Baltimore, so it is just right for Dutch. This district is actually quite a bit less ugly than the one he has right now.
SAFE D
MD-04 (red): Rep. Donna Edwards (D-Fort Washington)
87.0% Obama/12.1% McCain
86.3% Avg D/13.7% Avg R
VAP: 55.2% Black, 16.8% Hispanic
She caused a ruckus in redistricting by opposing the new Congressional map because she lost her share of Montgomery County. Here, she gains back a small chunk of it. I hope it's enough.
SAFE D
MD-05 (gold): Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville)
65.0% Obama/33.8% McCain
66.9% Avg D/33.1% Avg R
VAP: 37.9% Black
Hoyer will not like losing College Park, but I'm not in the mood to go back and revise the map I drew. Pity I found that fact out after the map was already drawn (h/t Skaje).
SAFE D
MD-06 (teal): Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Frederick)
56.5% Obama/41.8% McCain
55.2% Avg Dem/44.8% Avg R
This district is even more of a gerrymander than how O'Malley redrew MD-06. Mine uses touch-point contiguity to take in Democratic Hagerstown up in Washington County. It's also a district I don't see Bartlett running in as it has very few of his constituents.
LIKELY D
MD-07 (dark grey): Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Baltimore)
73.2% Obama/25.4% McCain
73.1% Avg D/26.9% Avg R
VAP: 50.4% Black
Cummings' district is used to absorb some red territory in suburban Baltimore County.
SAFE D
MD-08 (slate blue): Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Kensington)
65.2% Obama/33.1% McCain
66.5% Avg D/33.5% Avg R
Van Hollen loses a fair chunk of Montgomery County, but his base is still very much here. His district now goes into Howard County to take in some exurban territory.
SAFE D
MD-09 (cyan): OPEN
33.8% Obama/64.0% McCain
36.8% Avg D/63.2% Avg R
This is a Republican vote sink that ties the panhandle with part of the Eastern Shore. Although neither live here, I can see Rep. Andy Harris (R-Cockeysville) and/or Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Frederick) running here.