& Open Thread!
Tonight we will find out whether Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee definitely, or only sort of become the Republican nominee at some later point.
I will be updating this diary with results in all states as they come in, but I will mainly focus on Ohio, Alaska, and Tennessee.
The earliest polls close at 7 PM EST in Virginia, Georgia, and Vermont, which should provide good news for Newt and Mitt.
I will have especially intense focus on the primary election between Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich. Go Marcy!
L'Chaim!
4:02 PM PT: MSNBC calls Georgia for Newt Gingrich (OMG, I know!) and Virginia as too close to call despite a Romney lead.
4:13 PM PT: Virginia: Washington & Chesterfield are beginning to report, giving Romney a 62-38% lead so far.
4:15 PM PT: Gingrich still leads in GA with 0% of the vote, to Romney's 0% and Santorum's 0%. Ron Paul is significantly behind yet indefatigable at 0%.
4:16 PM PT: MSNBC is calling Virginia for Mitt Romney.
4:17 PM PT: With 102 precincts in, Romney leads in Virginia 60-40%.
4:18 PM PT: 1st precinct in Vermont, and Paul leads 38% to Santorum's 30% to Romney's 27% to Newt's 6%
4:19 PM PT: with 4 precincts in in Georgia, Gingrich leads with 58%, Santorum is in 2nd place with 20%, to Romney's 17%
4:20 PM PT: with 165 precincts in, Romney leads in VA with 59% to 41% to Ron Paul.
4:22 PM PT: a second precinct in Vermont puts Romney in the lead, Santorum still in 2nd. Mitt 33%, Ricky 31%, Paul 27%
4:23 PM PT: Santorum must've been really strong in the last precinct to report in GA, only 5 precincts in now, but Newt leads 39% to 31% for Rick, 24% for Romney.
4:24 PM PT: 3rd precinct in in Vermont: Mitt 38%, Ricky 27%, Paul 25%
4:28 PM PT: 9 precincts in GA, Newt leads 43%, Ricky 29%, Mitt 22%
4:29 PM PT: 4 precincts in VT, Mitt 34%, Ricky 28%, Paul 27%, 4 votes for Jon Huntsman.
4:31 PM PT: with 328 precincts in, Romney leads 58% to 42% for Paul.
4:34 PM PT: 7 precincts in VT, Romney 34%, Santorum & Paul at 28%, Santorum ahead of Paul by three votes
4:36 PM PT: MSNBC project Romney wins Vermont
4:37 PM PT: 23 precincts in Georgia, and it's Newt 43%, Santorum 26%, Mitt 23%
4:38 PM PT: 661 precincts in VA, and Paul is closing, trails by less than 7,000 votes right now.
56% for Mitt, 44% for Paul.
4:39 PM PT: 10 precincts in VT: Mitt 35%, Ricky 28%, Paul 27%
I think so far Santorum is making a much stronger showing here than expected.
4:41 PM PT: GA 36 precincts: Newt 45%, Santorum 25%, Mitt 22%
4:43 PM PT: 850 precincts in VA and Romney adds back to his lead: 58% to 42% for Paul.
4:44 PM PT: VT: 11 precincts, Mitt 36%, Santorum 27%, Paul 27%
4:46 PM PT: VT: 17 precints, Mitt 40%, Paul 26%, Santorum 25%
4:46 PM PT: OH: 1 precinct, Mitt 40%, Santorum 37%, Gingrich 14%
4:48 PM PT: GA: 39 precincts, Newt 46%, Santorum 26%, Mitt 23%
4:50 PM PT: 10% of precincts in VT: Mitt 39%, Paul 26%, Rick 25%
4:51 PM PT: 1089 in VA, Mitt 59 Paul 41
4:52 PM PT: 2 precincts in Ohio: Mitt 39%, Rick 37%, Newt 16%
4:54 PM PT: VA 1388 precincts reporting: Mitt 59%, Paul 41%
4:56 PM PT: 31 precincts in VT: Mitt 40%, Paul 26%, Ricky 24%
4:57 PM PT: 62 precincts in GA: Newt 46, Rick 25, Mitt 23
4:57 PM PT: 3rd precinct in Ohio and now it's tied 38-38, Santorum leads by 26 votes
5:00 PM PT: Charlie Wilson has 84% in OH-05
5:01 PM PT: according to MSNBC Santorum leads in Ohio, Tennessee, and Oklahoma right now, but are too close/early to call.
5:01 PM PT: Massachusetts called for Romney
5:02 PM PT: Ohio: Santorum 39, Mitt 37, Newt 15
only 5 precincts in
5:04 PM PT: VA: Mitt 59%, Paul 41%
I don't plan on continuing to report on VA at this point.
5:04 PM PT: 37 precincts in VT: Mitt 39%, Paul 27%, Santorum 24%
5:05 PM PT: MSNBC reports Paul may win the 3rd CD in VA.
5:05 PM PT: 152 precincts in GA, still 46-25-23 Newt-Rick-Mitt
I may not report on this anymore.
5:06 PM PT: Chuck Todd mentions the Mendoza line:
5:11 PM PT: OK: 1% reporting, Santorum 36, Gingrich 26, Romney 25
5:11 PM PT: OH: 2% reporting, Mitt 40%, Rick 37%, Newt 14%
5:13 PM PT: TN: 3% reporting, Rick 42%, Mitt 30%, Newt 19%
5:14 PM PT: OK: Rick 36%, Mitt 30%, Newt 23%
5:16 PM PT: OK: Rick 39, Newt 27, Mitt 24
5:16 PM PT: TN 5% reporting, 42% Rick, 31% Mitt, Newt 18%
5:18 PM PT: OH-03 Dem primary: Kilroy 3,295 votes, Beatty 3,111, Celeste 1,199
5:20 PM PT: OH 09 Dem primary: DK 9,914 votes, Kaptur 3,270
5:21 PM PT: TN 8% reporting, Rick 41%, Mitt 28%, Newt 17%
5:21 PM PT: OK: 1% reporting, Rick 36%, Mitt 26%, Newt 26%
5:22 PM PT: VT: 58 precincts in, Mitt 38%, Paul 28%, Rick 24%
5:26 PM PT: 6 precincts in Ohio, Mitt 42$, Santorum 36%, Newt 14%
5:27 PM PT: TN: 12% reporting, 43% Santorum, 28% Romney, 17% Gingrich
5:28 PM PT: OK: 2% reporting, Rick 37%, Mitt 30%, Newt 23%
5:29 PM PT: VT: 67 precincts in, Mitt 40%, Paul 26%, Santorum 24%
5:30 PM PT: OH-09: Samuel Wurzelbacher leads with 54% of the vote in the R primary
5:33 PM PT: TN: 13% reporting, 44% for Rick Santorum, 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich
5:35 PM PT: MSNBC calls Tennessee for Santorum
5:35 PM PT: Kucinich leads Kaptur 67-30 so far
5:37 PM PT: Ohio: 119 precincts in, 41% Romney, 36% Santorum, 15% Gingrich
5:38 PM PT: OK: 3% reporting, Santorum 37%, Romney 29%, Gingrich 24%
5:40 PM PT: Kaptur leads 96-2 so far in Lucas County, 54-44 Kucinich overall
5:41 PM PT: 206 precincts in Ohio: 40% Mitt, 37% Rick, 15% Paul
5:42 PM PT: OK: 4% reporting, 37% Rick, 28% Mitt, 25% Newt
5:45 PM PT: TN: 18% reporting, Santorum leading in every county reporting, 44%, Mitt 28%, Newt 18%
5:46 PM PT: MSNBC projects Santorum wins Oklahoma
5:48 PM PT: 431 precincts reporting in Ohio, Mitt 39%, Rick 38%, 15% Gingrich
5:49 PM PT: Newt Gingrich is the most insufferable person who has ever lived. That is all.
5:50 PM PT: 88 precincts in VT: 40% for Mitt, 26% for Paul, 24% for Santorum
5:50 PM PT: OH-02: Jean Schmidt is trailing 50-44, Krikorian is leading for the Dem nomination 51-49
5:51 PM PT: 488 precincts reporting: 39% Mitt, 37% Rick, 15% Newt
5:52 PM PT: OK: Mitt may fall into 3rd place; 7% reporting, 36% Rick, 27% Mitt, 26% Newt
5:54 PM PT: OH-09: 18/565 reporting, DK 49%, MK 48%
5:57 PM PT: OH-09: Kucinich is edging Kaptur by 24 votes so far in Lorain County
5:58 PM PT: OH: 696 precincts in, 38% Mitt, 38% Rick, 15% Newt.
Mitt leads by 310 votes.
5:59 PM PT: OH-02: Krikorian leads with 54%, now Schmidt leads with 49%
6:01 PM PT: OK: 15% reporting, Rick 34%, Mitt 27%, Gingrich 27%
6:02 PM PT: OH: 1057 precincts reporting, 38% Rick, 37% Mitt, 15% Newt
6:08 PM PT: OH-03: Beatty 37%, Kilroy 36%, Tyson 14%, Celeste 13%
6:09 PM PT: OK: 21% reporting, Santorum 35%, Mitt and Newt each at 27%
6:11 PM PT: OH: 1337 reporting, Santorum 38%, Romney 37%, Newt 15%
6:14 PM PT: OH 1464 precincts reporting: Santorum 39, Mitt 36
6:16 PM PT: OH-02: Krikorian trail by 20 some votes
Schmidt leads by 1,109 votes
6:18 PM PT: ND: 6% in, Santorum 52%, Paul 21%, Romney 15%, Gingrich 11%
6:19 PM PT: Aw, Gingrich will win 8 counties in Oklahoma, Mitt will only win 6.
6:21 PM PT: OH 1679 precincts reporting, still Rick 39, Mitt 36, Newt 15
6:23 PM PT: OK: Newt has pulled into 2nd place
6:26 PM PT: OH: 1977 precincts reporting, same numbers.
6:29 PM PT: OH-09: Kaptur takes lead 51-45, still trails by 9 votes in Lorain County
6:30 PM PT: 2269 precincts reporting in Ohio, same numbers
6:30 PM PT: OH-03: Beatty 38, Kilroy 35
6:32 PM PT: 2458 precincts in in Ohio, same numbers: Santorum 39, Romney 36, Newt 15
6:34 PM PT: ND: 21% reporting, Santorum 41%, Paul 25%, Romney 24%,
6:36 PM PT: 2741 precincts in OH: Santorum 39%, Romney 35%, Gingrich 15%
6:37 PM PT: hmm... Now the county tally in OK has changed. Santorum still leads 35-27-27, but Gingrich has won 9 counties, Mitt only 2. :'(
6:40 PM PT: 3078 precincts in Ohio, Santorum 39, Romney 36, Gingrich 15
Santorum's lead grows to over 14,000
6:41 PM PT: OH-09: Kaptur leads 53-43, none of Ottawa County, from her territory, has come in yet.
6:43 PM PT: ND: 26% reporting, Santorum 41%, Romney 26%, Paul 25%
6:45 PM PT: OH: 43% reporting, Santorum 39%, Romney 36%, Gingrich 15%
Romney leads by 11 votes in Mahoning
6:46 PM PT: ND 29% reporting, Santorum 40%, Paul 27%, Romney 25%
6:48 PM PT: OH-09, Cuyahoga starts reporting again, Kaptur ahead 52-44
6:49 PM PT: 3485 precincts reporting in Ohio, numbers very stable at Santorum 39%, Romney 36%, Gingrich 15%
6:51 PM PT: ND: 54% in, 39% for Santorum, 27% for Paul, 26% for Romney
Looks like a Santorum win
6:54 PM PT: OH-03: Beatty 38, Kilroy 35, other dudes 14 and 13
OH-02: Smith beating Krikorian 51-49
6:56 PM PT: 49% reporting in Ohio, Cuyahoga coming in again, and so its 38 Santorum, 36 Romney, 15 Gingrich
6:57 PM PT: Idaho will close in minutes, I'm ready for it, and Alaska in about 2 hours. I'll be here for Alaska, don't worry.
6:59 PM PT: 55% reporting in Ohio, gap closing, still 38 for Rick, 36 for Mitt
7:00 PM PT: ND: 67% reporting, Santorum 39%, Paul 28%, Romney 25%
Seriously, folks, not gonna call this one?
7:02 PM PT: 58% reporting in Ohio, and Mitt is seriously closing: 38 for Rick, 37% for Mitt, Rick's lead less than 10k votes now.
7:04 PM PT: CNN: 59% in in Ohio, 38 Rick, 36% Mitt
7:05 PM PT: ND: 78% reporting, Santorum 40%, Paul 27%, Romney 25%
Okay, if nobody else will, I'll call this state for Santorum
7:08 PM PT: 61% reporting in Ohio, Santorum still up 38-36, lead grows back out to 13k votes.
7:08 PM PT: CNN finally calls ND for Santorum
7:10 PM PT: 2% in in Idaho: 58% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Santorum, 16% for Paul, 9% for Gingrich
7:12 PM PT: 64% reporting in Ohio: 38-36 for Santorum
7:16 PM PT: OH: 66% in, still 38-36
7:18 PM PT: Idaho: 6% reporting, 76% for Romney, 10% Paul, 10% Santorum, 4% Gingrich
7:19 PM PT: 67% in in Ohio, still 38-36, Santorum's lead now 14.5k votes
7:21 PM PT: OH 70% in, Still 38-36% for Santorum, he leads by 15002 votes.
7:25 PM PT: OH-02 Mean Jean Schmidt leads by 570 votes, Krikorian down in Dem primary 47-53
OH-09 still Beatty 38, Kilroy 35
7:26 PM PT: Ohio: 71% in, Santorum is supposed to be losing ground, but his margin has increased to 15.5k votes, still 38-36
7:30 PM PT: Ottawa came in big all at once for Kaptur: Kaptur 54-42 overall now
7:31 PM PT: Idaho: 11% in, 78% for Mitt, 11% for Paul, 8% for Santorum, 3% for Gingrich
7:32 PM PT: OH: 75% reporting, Santorum's lead narrows to 12.5k votes, 38-37
7:36 PM PT: OH 78% reporting: Hamilton just dropped a bunch of ballots on us, still 38-37 for Santorum, but his margin was nearly halved
7:36 PM PT: OH-09: Kaptur 56-40
7:39 PM PT: OH 80% in, Santorum's lead shrinks to below 6k votes, still ahead 38-37
7:42 PM PT: OH 81% in, Santorum's lead barely edges above 6k again.
7:44 PM PT: OH: 84% in, Santorum's lead shrinks to just 2,400 votes
7:47 PM PT: OH: 85% in, lead around 2800 votes for Santorum
7:49 PM PT: OH: Santorum's lead down to 2,200 votes
7:53 PM PT: Butler, Hamilton, Greene, Montgomery, Delaware, Franklin, Scioto, Stark, Summit, Portage, Trumbull, Cuyahoga Counties still out for Mitt, maybe Lucas, which just switched back to him.
7:53 PM PT: 86%, Santorum's lead back to about 2400-2500
7:53 PM PT: FWIW that was Ohio
7:56 PM PT: Fulton, WIlliams, Defiance, Mercer, Darke, Hardin, Brown, Clermont, Wyandot, Richland, Columbiana, Wayne, Belmont still have Santorum votes
7:57 PM PT: Romney came within 1400 votes, then Santorum's OH lead grew back to 3200 votes, with 86% reporting.
7:58 PM PT: OH-09: 365/565 reporting, Kaptur 57-39
8:00 PM PT: Medina COunty, the last to start reporting in Ohio, is going 39-37 for Mitt.
8:03 PM PT: 86% reporting in Ohio, Santorum lead shrinks to about 2,102 votes, IIRC
8:05 PM PT: Ohio: Santorum's lead shrinks to 2,016 votes
8:06 PM PT: Ohio: 86% reporting, Romney takes a 1,400 vote lead.
8:08 PM PT: Romney's Ohio lead shrinks to below 900 votes
8:09 PM PT: Idaho: 22% in, 76% Romney, 12% Paul, 9% Santorum, 3% Gingrich
8:09 PM PT: Romney lead grows to about 1,900 votes in Ohio
8:10 PM PT: Romney's lead in Ohio grows to about 6,500 votes as Cuyahoga is now 60% in, Hamilton County 99%, and Franklin 91%
8:12 PM PT: MSNBC projects Idaho for Romney
8:14 PM PT: 87% reporting in Ohio, and Romney leads by less than 5,500 votes.
8:16 PM PT: 88% reporting in Ohio, Romney lead shrinks to 3,800 votes.
8:19 PM PT: OH-09: Kaptur now leads 58-38 with 439/565 reporting, some outstanding areas are in Lucas but most are in Cuyahoga
8:21 PM PT: OH-02: Krikorian now barely leads in the Dem primary, Schmidt is down 44-48 in the Republican primary
8:25 PM PT: OH: Romney leads with 90% in by about 5,100 votes
8:27 PM PT: While Romney is dominating in Idaho, very little outside of the east has reported yet. Santorum did win Lewis County, though, 44-25. Those are votes, not percentages.
8:28 PM PT: OH 90% in, 5,045 vote lead for Mitt the Mormon.
8:32 PM PT: 91% reporting, Mitt's lead in Ohio grows to about 5,800 votes
Looks like it's his state. Only Crawford County may have Santorum votes left.
8:53 PM PT: OH-09: How much ground can Kucinich make up in the remaining Cuyahoga precincts? All 93 of the remaining precincts are from there, but now he trails 36-60.
8:53 PM PT: Ohio: with 93% of the vote in, Romney leads in Ohio by about 7,500 votes.
8:55 PM PT: Paul wins Latah County in Idaho with 52% of the vote there.
8:58 PM PT: 93% reporting in Ohio and Romney leads by about 7,250 votes.
9:01 PM PT: Paul wins Camas County Idaho 40-38, beating Romney by two votes.
9:04 PM PT: Paul wins Boundary County, Idaho, with 54% of the vote, to 28% for Santorum, Romney came in third.
9:10 PM PT: Santorum wins Washington County, Idaho 55% to 45% for Mitt Romney
9:13 PM PT: 93% of the vote in Ohio, and Romney's lead stands at about 7,070 votes. I don't see any Santorum counties that still have votes out.
9:19 PM PT: 94% in Ohio, Romney up 7,600 votes.
9:24 PM PT: OH-09: Kaptur making a victory lap on MSNBC
9:24 PM PT: 96% reporting in Ohio, Romney's lead shoots up to about 12k votes.
9:30 PM PT: ... it's been 30 minutes since Alaska closed and nothing yet ...
9:32 PM PT: MSNBC calls Ohio for Romney as the "Apparent Winner"
9:41 PM PT: With Cuyahoga all in, Kaptur defeats Kucinich 56-40!
9:41 PM PT: Beatty declared the winner in OH-03!
9:42 PM PT: Jean Schmidt loses by 5,300 votes!
9:52 PM PT: Alaska: "0% reporting"
Romney: 39%
Santorum: 26%
Paul: 21%
Gingrich: 14%
9:58 PM PT: Idaho: Romney's vote share continues to decline as more counties in the west report. He won Ada and Canyon counties with only 52%.
10:01 PM PT: AK: Romney 37, Santorum 26, Paul 23, Gingrich 14%
10:11 PM PT: Wow, MSNBC's reporter with the Romney campaign is clearly eating everything they're serving him right up. Obviously biased.
10:13 PM PT: Idaho: Clearwater County goes 64-36 Santorum over Paul.
10:15 PM PT: Idaho: Santorum takes Owyhee County 60-40 over Romney
10:16 PM PT: Alaska: 16% in, Romney 32%, Paul 25%, Santorum 23%, Gingrich 20%
10:45 PM PT: Alaska: 68% reporting, Romney 33%, Santorum 30%, Paul 21%, Gingrich 15%
Romney leads by 280 votes.
10:46 PM PT: Idaho: Paul wins Bonner County 53-47 over Rick Santorum
10:50 PM PT: Idaho: Idaho County goes for Paul 60-40 over Santorum
11:14 PM PT: Idaho: Santorum wins Benewah County 51-32 over Ron Paul
11:17 PM PT: Idaho: Santorum wins Shoshone County 54-46 over Romney.
11:29 PM PT: Alaska: 85% reporting, 33% for Romney, 29% for Santorum, 24% for Paul
Dammit, I was hoping Rick would pull this one out.
11:46 PM PT: CNN has called Alaska for Mitt.