We won't know for sure that the Supreme Court will rule against the Affordable Care Act for a couple of months, but the right-wing majority on the court knows they are electing the next President and they are not going to miss an opportunity to appoint their man. It's what they do best.
Legal arguments are not going to matter to the conservative majority, just as they didn't matter in 2000. They will find a way to excuse their actions because they know the voters could care less about legal arguments. Undecided and independent voters are watching the way they watch a football game between rivals. One side will win, the other will lose. And whoever wins gets cheers and the credibility. Right now, Romney and the Republicans are woefully short on credibility, and the Court's majority is ready to turn the tide.
Make no mistake, when the "Obamacare Unconstitutional" hits the headlines, Obama will be the goat. The substance of the decision and any subtleties in the Court's pronouncements will be quickly forgotten, and the right wing noise machine will shift into overdrive. Obama will be the face of failure to the independents who will decide the election. Counter claims from Obama supporters will have negligible effect. Welcome to Romneyland.
The college football rivalry game analogy covers the fallout quite well. Ohio State partisans believe Michigan is evil. Michigan partisans believe Ohio is a bunch of dicks. They hate each other, and they won't change their minds no matter how the game goes. When it's over the losers will whine that the bad call the officials made with a minute left turned the game around. Of course it did, but tomorrow the writers will take a vote and decide who is number one. And the scoreboard will tell its tale.
The Roberts Court is locked in to the right wing partisan side. Those who say Kennedy is the swing vote don't know much about swinging. He helped appoint Bush, and if the Citizens United decision wasn't a blatant attempt to unleash right wing money and influence the outcome of 2012 and beyond, I certainly don't know what was. At best, he is the only conservative on the court who doesn't like being labeled, but he is who he is. And he is one of them.
Obama will head to November with his signature legislation in ruins with no hope of revival. In the minds of the independent voters his administration will have been a failure. His supporters will be demoralized as they were in 2010, and that fiasco of an election will be repeated.
Romney, on the other hand, will be the guy who "got the job done", prevailing in a primary season in spite of the fact that half his party hated him. That is all the right will need to embrace him at last, and enthusiastically work to realize their dream of making Obama a one-term president.
Hail to the victors.