There was a time when it was hard NOT to conclude that the GOP was on the verge of claiming a Senate majority after the 2012 elections. The Democrats, with that huge class of 2006 coming around for their inaugural reelection bids, were defending more than twice as many seats as the Republicans. Even Democratic politicos for whom optimism is practically a job prerequisite were describing the prospects of a continued majority as "tough."
But things have changed fairly substantially in the past couple of months. A sure GOP hold in Maine seems to have fallen by the wayside, unless the GOP can bargain with Angus King and get him to join their caucus. As we have catalogued here for weeks, Indiana Republicans are on the verge of replacing a 100 percent chance of reelection with a conservative firebrand whose prospects are about 50/50. And now, a combination of a better-than-average Democratic candidate and a weaker-than-expected GOP candidate has made an unthinkable Democratic hold of their open seat in North Dakota eminently plausible.
Here are the numbers, including the first new numbers in North Dakota in quite a while:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION POLLING:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-46)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-45)
NORTH DAKOTA (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Romney d. Obama (51-32)
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
KY-06 (Public Opinion Strategies for Barr): Rep. Ben Chandler (D) 49, Andy Barr (R) 42
NC-GOV—D (PPP): Walter Dalton 36, Bob Etheridge 26, Bill Faison 5, Bruce Blackmon 3, Gardenia Henley 3, Gary Dunn 2
ND-SEN (DFM Research for the ND Democratic Party): Heidi Heitkamp (D) 49, Rick Berg (R) 44
Some thoughts, as always, just past the jump.
- The poll out of North Dakota is a real eye-opener for a couple of reasons. First of all, the presidential numbers, if anything, are on the pessimistic side for Barack Obama. Down 19 in the ND Democrats poll, he only lost the state by eight points back in 2008. So, it'll be hard for conservatives seeking a rationalization to pull out the "librul bias" card on this survey. For another, as my hawkeyed pal David Nir noticed on Friday, the campaign of Rick Berg paid for a poll earlier this year. But didn't release it. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean a hell of a lot. However, there is one other campaign where we have seen that recently: Dick Lugar. So ... there's that.
- The national trackers finally moved in unison this weekend, to the detriment of Barack Obama. Both Rasmussen and Gallup moved in the direction of Mitt Romney since Friday, with the movement by Gallup once again on the verge of being comical—Obama had a seven-point lead on Friday. Eight points in three days, absent any obvious catalyst, invites no small amount of skepticism.
- A favorite parlor game here on Daily Kos Elections is trying to determine why someone would release an internal poll showing them behind their opponent. Often, the correct answer is that there is no good reason. But I think I see the campaign of Republican Andy Barr working here. When Kentucky got redistricted earlier this year, everyone automatically assumed that the status-quo redistricting had succeeded in emboldening the prospects of Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler, who barely held Barr off in 2010. This poll was clearly designed to be an "I'm not dead yet" message. Still, trailing by seven points in your own internal polling is hardly a cause to put this race down as a "tossup," one would assume.