Princeton Election Consortium, run by Prof. Sam Wang, was exactly right in 2008 in Electoral College votes--better even than Saint Nate. He also named the winner in 2004, although a few electoral votes off.
As of just now, he's predicting the Dems have a 69% chance of winning back the House. Knife's edge, and could tilt either way, but he's the first credible source I've seen that's predicting Pelosi will again be speaker.