I just saw the fat lady. She's sitting in stony silence, sipping a hot cup of herbal tea. I asked her why she was warming up when we still have six weeks to go. She nodded quietly toward an inconspicuous folded sheet of paper on the table. I picked it up, unfolded it and immediately understood. It was a ballot, an early ballot.
As of yesterday, half of the states in the country have begun to accept early ballots. This includes three of the ten "Tipping Point States" identified by Nate Silver: MN, WI and VA. Furthermore, two more of the remaining six will start early voting in the next week and a half: IA and OH. Three more should follow shortly: NV, CO and FL.
Only two battleground states do not have early voting: PA and NH.
What does this mean? It means time is running out. Voters already have their ballots in their hands. And, not just any voters, swing state voters.
While Romney gaffes, alienates voters and is just plain rude and insensitive, the deciding ballots are already out there, just waiting to be marked and delivered.
Romney doesn't have until Nov. 6th to turn his campaign around. He has until yesterday.
Over the next few weeks, polling should start to provide a picture of how early voting is going. We'll get a sense of how many voters have already made up their mind. More and more, we will start seeing Romney give up on the early voting states, and focus his attention on NH and PA. But, by the time those states vote, it may already be decided.
Obama is ahead in all five of the battleground states that will start voting in the next two weeks:
Here are the states with their RCP averages
State |
Voting Date |
Obama |
Romney |
MN |
9/21/2012 |
50.5 |
42 |
WI |
9/21/2012 |
51.2 |
44.2 |
VA |
9/22/2012 |
49.6 |
45.1 |
IA |
9/27/2012 |
47 |
44.7 |
OH |
10/2/2012 |
48.8 |
44.7 |
Early voting info comes from
here.
2:59 PM PT:
11:07 PM PT: I just want to post an update courtesy of rosarugosa. Early voting in WI does not actually start until 10/22/2012. This is, apparently, a recent change. Previously, in WI voting began once the ballots are printed, but new laws have changed it.