Here on DKE and elsewhere, it's common to look at a candidate's fundraising to try to see how strong they are. Sometimes, now, people will say that it doesn't matter how much a candidate raises, since outside spending will dwarf their totals. I decided to look at 2010 and see which unsuccessful Democratic incumbents were out-spent by their opponents once outside spending is taken into account.
I used Opensecrets.org, which has candidate and outside spending for each race in 2010. 52 incumbent Democrats lost:
http://en.wikipedia.org/...
Of these, only nine incumbent Democrats were out-spent by their opponents, taking into account outside spending. However, of these, five were also out-spent individually by their opponents, Four were also the four races with the largest total spending gap:
1. VA-02: The biggest spending gap of them all. Democrat Glenn Nye spent $2,274,753, with Republican Scott Rigell spending $4,352,653. (Much of Rigell's fundraising came from self-financing.)
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
In outside spending, Rigell had an edge too--but a much smaller one. Rigell had $880,506 spent on his behalf or against Nye, to Nye's $679,298.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
2. FL-22: Democrat Ron Klein spent $5,319,671 to Republican Allen West's $6,519,713.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
West also led in outside spending, with $934,861 to Klein's $417,667.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
3. OH-16: Democrat John Boccieri spent $2,102,854 to Republican James Renacci's $2,403,263.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
Boccieri had $3,369,779 in outside spending--to Renacci's $3,965,572.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
4. NM-02 : Democrat Harry Teague spent $2,066,529 to Republican Steve Pearce's $2,417,905.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
Pearce had $1,566,710 in outside spending to Teague's $1,298,335.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
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Then there are the four races where an incumbent Democrat spent more than their opponent, but spent less accounting for outside spending, and lost. In other words, there were only four races with an unsuccessful Democratic incumbent who spent more as an individual candidate then their Republican opponent, but where outside spending gave the Republican an overall spending advantage.
Continuing by the size of the spending gap:
5. MD-01 : Republican Andy Harris had $2,488,309 in outside spending to $1,673,915 for Democrat Frank Kratovil.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
This easily overwhelmed the difference in individual spending, where Kratovil spent $2,621,893 to Harris' $2,383,184.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
6. MI-07 : Republican Tim Walberg had far more outside spending at $5,358,697 than Democrat Mark Schauer did at $3,540,231.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
Schauer spent more as an individual--$3,261,651 to Walberg's $1,647,379.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
7. TX-23: Dem Ciro Rodriguez had a bit of a disadvantage in outside spending with only $1,160,835 to $1,573,623 for Republican Francisco Canseco.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
Despite this, Rodriguez individually spent $1,678,897 to Canseco's $1,460,461.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
8. IL-17 : Democrat Phil Hare--one of the biggest upsets of the cycle--had to deal with $2,340,329 in outside spending on Republican Bobby Schilling's behalf to only $1,612,589 in outside spending on his own.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
Even though Hare personally spent $1,759,078 to Schilling's $1,093,250.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
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Finally, one more race where the Democrat got out-spent overall and individually:
9. OH-01 : Democrat Steve Dreihaus spent $1,971,653, but Republican Steve Chabot spent $2,039,474.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
However, Dreihaus had $350,503 in outside spending to Chabot's $290,432.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
Conclusion: We can't really know which Democratic incumbents lost "because of" outside spending--maybe outside groups spent more effectively than individual candidates.
But, considering only these 52 races for now, the overwhelming majority of unsuccessful Democratic incumbents out-spent their opponents--even taking into account outside spending--and still lost. And those few that didn't out-spend their opponents still mostly lost the fundraising race as individual candidates.
The worst by total spending gap? NY-20, where Democrat Scott Murphy had $5,321,745 in individual spending and $2,040,182 in outside spending to Republican Chris Gibson's $1,734,219 and $788,951. And lost anyway.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
Although special mention should be made of Melissa Bean, Dan Maffei, Rick Boucher, Alan Grayson, Walt Minnick, Jim Oberstar, Suzanne Kosmas, Solomon Ortiz, and Bob Etheridge--the Democratic incumbents who lost with the largest fraction of total Democratic spending to total Republican spending. (Along with Murphy--he'd be between Oberstar and Kosmas.)
I have often thought that we over-emphasize candidate fundraising and campaign spending as factors in elections. Perhaps this is some evidence in that direction.
And, at least in these crucial 2010 races, it was the Republicans, not the Democrats, who were mostly swimming against a river of cash. For example, the Democrat with the smallest spending advantage--OH-15's Mary Jo Kilroy--got individually out-spent by her opponent, Steve Stivers, $2,664,282 to $2,735,788.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
But she made up for it with $361,251 in outside spending--vs. only $193,698 for Stivers.
http://www.opensecrets.org/...
Republican vs. Democratic outside spending: Of these 52 races, only 14 had more Republican outside spending than Democratic outside spending: MI-07, PA-08, MD-01, IL-17, CO-03, OH-16, AZ-05, FL-22, TX-23, NM-02, AZ-01, VA-02, OH-18, IN-09.
Where was outside spending the biggest factor?: Outside spending was a majority of total spending in 12 races where an incumbent Democrat lost (listed by percentage of outside spending out of total spending): MI-07, NV-03, OH-16, IL-17, AL-02, PA-11, OH-06, AZ-01, PA-10, TN-04, CO-03, AZ-05.
The ten races with the largest percentage of Republican outside spending were: MI-07, IL-17, OH-16, CO-03, AZ-05, AZ-01, NV-03, MD-01, TX-23, PA-08.
I am, of course, relying on OpenSecrets here. I also want to note that, when I say that a candidate had $X in outside spending, I'm using OpenSecrets' totals for outside spending for the candidate and against their opponent.
Also, all this information may well be compiled elsewhere, but what can I say? I like making spreadsheets. Let me know in comments if there's anything I missed or that I'm not thinking of. I also want to treat open seats separately--there were many fewer losses anyway, and while I imagine the Republicans weren't outspent as they were in these races, the dynamics were probably fairly different. If there's interest in this post I'll do the same for open seats.