Despite Newt's big win in South Carolina, many are still expressing skepticism that Newt actually has a chance to beat Romney in the long run. A Diary earlier today argued that because Newt's unfavorable numbers nationally are so high, he would never actually be nominated for president by the Republicans. However, I am not sure this is an accurate way to look at the race for the Republican nomination. It assumes Republicans are acting rationally...
First, lets take a look at the current polls: Gallup just released an updated national poll showing Romney maintaining the slimmest of leads, a statistically insignificant 29-28 lead that given the rate of decay will certainly show Gingrich leading over the next few days.
The relevant polls from Florida released in the last day show Gingrich now leading there by 8 and 9 points respectively, which is particularly important given that early voting is underway and a lot of this lead will be locked in over the coming week. As seen in the link above, Nate Silver is currently projecting another double digit win for Newt in Florida and now see him as having an 84 % chance of winning.
Still, the thinking among those still believing in Romney is simply that Republicans could not do something so irrational as nominate Newt. Surely they will see that he is unelectable, right? Not so fast, my friends.
Does anyone dispute that the Republican base successfully denied dealing with accepting basic reality on many issues for years and years? Why would we expect them to suddenly become rationale in electoral analysis? And there is a legitimate point that the Newt supporters can make which is basically "if this guy is so strong, why can't he ever win a primary?" For months most conservative Republicans have been looking for an excuse, any excuse, to dump Mitt. This has been obvious since the campaign began, with non-Romney after non-Romney surging in the polls. The fact that the base hated the idea of having to settle on Romney as the nominee has been apparent from the beginning.
But after Romney's Super Pac destroyed Newt in Iowa, it appeared that the base finally began to accept their fate- Romeny was the only plausible choice left andthey would just have to live with it. But then Newt got a billionaire to give him some money and he got his own Super Pac going, and they hit Romney at just the right spot- Bain.
The fact is that populist elements on the left and the right are turned off by this aspect of Romney, and this attack on Romney raised new questions about whether he could withstand attacks on his record, and his vast tax sheltered wealth, in the current political climate that Occupy Wall Street is reflective of.
Further, Romney's struggles in providing a straight answer on his tax returns suggests that there is a landmine there, and it remains to be seen to what extent releasing a year or two of returns will put these at ease (obviously he has known for years he is running for president and therefore has had plenty of time to adjust his more recent returns accordingly).
All the Republican base needed was some reason, any reason, to rationalize that Newt was just as electable as Romney, and they would dump Romney faster than Romney dumps a political position that is no longer expedient. And yes, Republicans, more than anything want a blow hard that will get in Obama's face and scream about food stamps or whatnot. This is the party that lost three senate seats last year that they could have easily won, because they nominated people who talked about "second amendment remedies" and produced commercials proclaiming "I am not a witch." Now you want to convince me they are too reasonable to avoid nominating Newt Gingrich?
A key aspect of this is that thanks to the likes of people like Sarah Palin and other Tea Party leaders, the Republican base, having been whipped into a froth over Obama by the likes of Rush Limbaugh, are simply no longer willing to just fall in line behind whoever the establishment puts out there as the "reasonable" choice. No sir. That time is past. South Carolina used to reliably fall in line behind the establishment guy, and they did just the opposite this time, because they have become convinced that they are in an epic struggle, a war with Obama over whether we become a Socialist state, and who wants to march into a war like that with a guy like Romney, who doesn't even yell and scream about "The Food stamp President"? This is a war and they want a warrior. So this time, the fact that the establishment panics and promotes Mitt endlessly, and bashes Newt mercilessly, will likely only help Newt. The base will view all of this as more proof they are making the right choice, and Newt will use it to his advantage just like he used the open marriage question to his advantage.
The fact that the Republican establishment not only has no power to whip the base into line, but actually will probably drive the base more to Newt through their attacks on Newt is one of the primary reasons I do believe Newt is very likely to win this thing. Intrade still has Romeny as a slight favorite to win the nomination, but that lead will continue to shrink in the coming week as it becomes more clear that Newt is going to win Florida, and possibly win it big. Where does Romney stand with his electability argument after a big loss in Florida?
Yes, Newt can easily still blow this. Yes, he is unpredictable and has been known to really make stupid comments and do stupid things that blows himself up. But the base has chosen their man, and are likely to be very forgiving of Newt going forward. If he does win Florida big, he will have plenty of time to raise money and organize for Super Tuesday, so I do not thing the relative lack of organization aspect of this is nearly as important as some would think. These things are all about momentum once the voting starts.
If I had to bet right now, I would place my money on Newt. However, I acknowledge Newt's inherent ability to self-destruct.