Michele Bachmann
Rick Perry
Herman Cain
Newt Gingrich
Rick Santorum? Give me a break.
Let's face it: Mitt Romney is going to be the Republican nominee. No one likes to use the word "inevitable" because surprises do happen, and who wants to look foolish? Luckily I'm used to looking like a fool, so I have no such qualms. Mitt Romney is inevitable. The only person with a realistic shot of stopping him was Rick Perry, and he oopsed that chance away a long time ago. Now he's in Texas licking his wounds and considering his next step. Hint: It starts with a "d," ends with a "t," and has a "rop ou" in the middle.
Santorum's showing in Iowa was certainly unexpected, and lent some last-minute excitement to what would otherwise have been a pretty staid caucus. But he hasn't got legs. No doubt he'll get a fundraising bump from his near-victory (how frustrating must it be to lose by eight votes?), but it' won't be enough to compete with Romney's money, organization, and momentum. A lot of pundits like to talk about Romney's weakness in the South, and it's true that the region is not an ideal fit for him. But it's not exactly a great fit for the Catholic Santorum either. And this is before the inevitable (there's that word again) slew of negative ads targeting him hit the airwaves.
If I were advising Santorum I would advise him to skip New Hampshire altogether and go straight to South Carolina (I'd tell Newt Gingrich the same thing). No one is going to stop Romney in his own backyard; better to have a week of more or less unchallenged campaigning in a place where you actually have a shot of winning. My prediction: Gingrich and Santorum vie for the evangelical vote, with Ron Paul attracting his usual core of fanatic followers and borderline retarded so-called "liberals" who think his opposition to the war and anti-establishment stance somehow make up for his support for school prayer, opposition to abortion, and racist/extremist connections. In that environment, Romney might even be able to win, but more likely he will place. But that will be enough.
Because then comes Florida. The most recent poll I can find is from December 19, and it has Romney up by one point over Gingrich in the Sunshine State. But that's before Newt's disastrous showing in Iowa, which is bound to affect his numbers. Santorum's rise only hurts the former speaker more, by giving the anti-Romney faction another alternative. Florida is going to be a hard fought -- and costly -- battle, and to my thinking the only one really in a position to win there is Romney. No one else has the deep pockets that will be necessary, and the would-be Antimitts are all drawing from the same well of support. A win there would be the death knell of the Gingrich campaign, and probably Santorum's too, because after Florida come a string of Romney-friendly states until Super Tuesday:
February 4 - Nevada
February 4–11 - Maine
February 7 - Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri
February 28 - Arizona, Michigan
March 3 - Washington
It's not hard to look at that list and conclude that the primary schedule was specifically designed to favor Mitt Romney. Three of those states (Nevada, Maine, and Michigan) are virtual locks for the former Massachusetts governor. Four more (Colorado, Minnesota, Arizona, and Washington) are nearly so, with political climates very favorable to Romney. The only one that might truly be in contention is Missouri, but even there he looks strong. It is quite possible that we could go into Super Tuesday with Mitt Romney having run the table. Who among his competitors will even be left by then?
Bottom line: It's getting harder and harder to see how anyone besides Mitt Romney ends up with GOP nomination. And that scares me, because I think Romney is the biggest potential threat to President Obama's reelection. Americans don't like a president who challenges them, who makes them think and face unpleasant truths. That's the reason (well, okay, one of the reasons) why Jimmy Carter was unsuccessful. We prefer reassuring platitudes about stick-to-it-iveness and rugged individualism, trite though they are. And the economy continues to plod forward like a zombie (Night of the Living Dead Economy -- aaarrgh!), not a good harbinger for an incumbent. In that environment a handsome, bland (read: white) guy with presidential hair could fare very well. Many factors will influence the race, not least of which the economy (if we come out of the second quarter next year with 3% growth things will look very good for Obama) and the performance of the candidates themselves. Nate Silver puts the odds of an Obama/Romney race at about 50/50, and that seems about right to me. But consider this:
That's a chart of the US economy over the last forty years. As you can see, there has been a fairly consistent pattern of peaks and valleys. We're in a valley now, although (hopefully) we're climbing out of it. But here's where it gets scary: Presidents tend to get credit for the economy, good or bad. Sooner or later we will be in a another boom cycle, more than likely in the first few years of the next presidential term, if the cycle holds. If the timing works out, whoever is elected in 2012 (or their party) stands an excellent chance of being reelected in 2016. If that person happens to be Mitt Romney, we could be looking at the Republicans' wet dream: The second coming of Ronald Reagan. Only this time with a Republican House. And magic underwear.
Brrrr. Did it just get chilly in here?