As one might expect, quite a few polls from a certain smallish state in New England kick off this week in politics. Yep, New Hampshire is on the minds of the pollsters, and the political chattering classes, as we are now less than 24 hours from tallying the votes in the "first in the nation" primaries in the Granite State.
While the media will no doubt try to breathe some intrigue into the events tomorrow night, let's face it--there is about a 99 percent chance that we already know who is going to win in both the Republican and the Democratic primaries.
But that doesn't mean there aren't things worth watching.
Past the jump you can read my thoughts on the three "big questions" leading into New Hampshire. For now, however, let's jump right into the deep end with all of the numbers that have been released since the Weekend Digest:
NATIONAL (CBS News): Romney 19, Gingrich 15, Santorum 14, Paul 10, Perry 6, Huntsman 4
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 30, Santorum 18, Gingrich 17, Paul 13, Perry 6, Huntsman 1
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Romney 27, Gingrich 16, Santorum 16, Paul 12, Perry 6, Huntsman 2
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Romney 36, Gingrich 24, Santorum 16, Paul 10, Perry 5, Huntsman 2
NEW HAMPSHIRE (American Research Group): Romney 37, Huntsman 18, Paul 17, Santorum 11, Gingrich 10, Perry 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP): Romney 35, Paul 18, Huntsman 16, Gingrich 12, Santorum 11, Roemer 3, Perry 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Suffolk Tracking): Romney 33, Paul 20, Huntsman 13, Gingrich 11, Santorum 10, Roemer 2, Perry 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Univ. of New Hampshire/WMUR): Romney 41, Paul 17, Huntsman 11, Santorum 11, Gingrich 8, Bachmann 1, Perry 1, Roemer 1
SOUTH CAROLINA (PPP): Romney 30, Gingrich 23, Santorum 19, Paul 9, Perry 5, Huntsman 4, Roemer 1
Also, Monday brought our first big dollop of general election polling data to take a glance at, including the first recent take (albeit by the House of Rasmussen) on the Obama-Santorum general election showdown.
NATIONAL (CBS News): Romney d. Obama (47-45); Obama d. Paul (46-45); Obama d. Santorum (47-43); Obama d. Huntsman (48-41); Obama d. Perry (49-42); Obama d. Gingrich (49-41)
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Obama tied with generic Republican (41-41)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Santorum (46-39)
Some New Hampshire-centric polling analysis awaits you after the jump.
As promised, here are the three burning questions coming into New Hampshire.
1. What constitutes a "win" for Mitt Romney in New Hampshire?
At this point, you can find virtually no one who thinks someone other than Mitt Romney will win the New Hampshire Republican primary tomorrow. But given that this is a quasi-home state for Romney, that's a completely predictable outcome. After all, only the presence of John McCain (who denied George W. Bush an early win here in 2000) kept Romney from the win back in 2008.
But will merely outpointing his rivals be sufficient for Romney. Some of his opponents are gaming expectations in an almost comical way, with one quoted this weekend as saying that unless Romney actually tallies a majority of the vote on Tuesday night, his performance is underwhelming.
That, of course, is ridiculous. But that doesn't mean Romney can't fail to hit the point spread tomorrow. Defining that point spread is the tricky part. For my money, Romney needs both of the following things to occur to score a "win" coming out of the New Hampshire primaries: (1) he needs to win by at least a dozen points, and (2) he needs to score more than 40 percent of the vote.
Romney has been quietly fading in the polls over the last couple of days. Where he once was in the low 40s in the Suffolk tracker, he had tumbled all the way down to 33 percent as of this morning. ARG (!) had him dropping from 40 percent to 37 percent in two days, as well. What is saving him, from the perspective of his winning margin, is that no one is emerging as the unambiguous second choice. That may mean that Romney can win with 38 percent of the vote ... and still double up the second-place finisher.
2. Is New Hampshire where Jon Huntsman will surge? And does it matter?
The short answer to this one is: yes, and no. Huntsman could very easily wind up as the second-place finisher tomorrow. PPP had him running third, but hinted that he had a momentum streak similar to Rick Santorum in Iowa, and could wind up in the second slot.
But, even more so than Santorum, Huntsman's moment in the sun may be fleeting. New Hampshire is tailor-made for Huntsman--the Suffolk tracker over the weekend estimated that 40% of the primary electorate will be either Democrats or Independents, and less than half of the GOP electorate here identifies with the tea party. To say that this is unlikely to reflect GOP primary voting pools in other states is the mother of all understatements. What's more--Huntsman could probably apply for residency in the state, at this point. That won't be a strategy he can replicate elsewhere.
And, needless to say, his poll numbers elsewhere are putrid. Huntsman fans should enjoy this, because it ain't gonna get any better than this.
3. Does the battle for fourth place matter?
Hell yes, it does. And that is because, in all probability, it will be a battle between Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum for fourth place. Which means, of course, that it is a battle for the #1 spot in the anti-Mitt sweepstakes.
New Hampshire's voters, given to their idiosyncrasies, have ensured no consolidation of the anti-Mitt vote coming out of this race. Neither of the candidates are likely to better than fourth, after all.
But Newt's rationale for being the guy gets harder if Santorum decisively outpolls him here (which is unlikely, if the polls are spot on). Can Newt claim with any credibility that he is the guy to beat Romney with a fourth and fifth place in the two opening contests?! Especially if he lost to Santorum in both races. Santorum, with his emphasis on social issues in what is (more than any other place, arguably) a Republican electorate that has a libertarian bent, was always something of a poor match for New Hampshire (a reason why I still don't understand why he put in a sincere campaign effort here--he should have bagged it like Rick Perry did).
If Santorum beats Gingrich in a state where Santorum is an ill fit to begin with, how can Gingrich credibly claim to have a clear path to the GOP nomination. At least Santorum can claim that he can beat Romney in a compacted field. That is a claim that was somewhat verified by this weekend's PPP poll in South Carolina, which showed Santorum beating Romney in a head-to-head GOP primary, whereas Gingrich still trailed Romney in such a matchup.