I’ve heard a lot of respectable people in the political realm (such as Nate Silver and the late Jack Kemp) compare a Presidential Election to a football game – The early Primaries are the first quarter, where only a real stroke of incompetence can end a general election before it starts. The later primaries are the end of the first half, where the strategies emerge and the tone for the rest of the contest is set. Pre-convention is the third quarter, where adjustments are made (i.e. appealing to the center) and some new players (VP picks) see field time.
The fourth quarter – the conventions and final eight weeks – is now in full swing, with all of the usual endgames unfolding. There’s Reagan running up the score on Mondale in ’84, Clinton keeping a calm, focused plan through a solid ’92 win, Bush with two controversial late wins in 2K and ’04. And most recently, Obama’s record-setting ground game in ’08 controlling the pace in the final minutes.
And this one? Let’s pick up the highlights at the start of the fourth quarter, with the Blue Team ahead by 3:
GOP Convention: After some early sputtering and a weather delay, Ann Romney gets the Red Team drive going in the right direction. Marco Rubio sets them up in position to score, and then a trick play with an extremely over-the-hill player backfires. Romney settles for a field goal to tie up the game.
Dem Convention: Michelle Obama kicks off a steady, solid drive for a touchdown to reclaim the lead, led by Blue Team MVP Bill Clinton. Jennifer Granholm is flagged for excessive celebration.
Post-Convention: A game plan around blaming Obama for riots in the Middle East falls apart quickly, which sends the Red Team to go for it on fourth. This leads to the play of the game so far…
47-Blue-Screen: Romney calls a play that is meant to pick on the poor, always a popular Red Team target. They had been practicing it in closed-door practices, but Obama had it well-scouted out. The play in intercepted and ran back for a touchdown, putting the Blue Team in command.
Slowing the game down: With a comfortable lead, Obama is looking to slow down the game. The Red Team’s tactic of making Blue players check in with ID’s and only at certain times is overturned. Red fans begin doubting the score, believing the score is closer than the scoreboard says. Scores from out-of-town Senate contests begin filtering around the stadium. Romney needs a miracle…
The First Debate: …and he gets one. Horribly blown coverage by a fatigued Obama rewards a Hail Mary for a touchdown, and even more shockingly, Romney recovers the onside kick. Replays show that the score may not have been legit, but the momentum is all on the Red Bench, now within range of tying the game.
The Veep Debate: Pretty Boy quarterback Paul Ryan gets sacked for a big loss by veteran blitzer Joe Biden, slowing down the momentum for now.
A lot hinges on the next debate. Does Romney complete the comeback and take control of the game, or will the Blue team hold them and retake the ball?