The maps are below. Not many changes, aside from North Carolina. My methodology is a simple poll average excluding pollsters with GOP affiliations, no track record, or a bad track record.
Nothing has changed since the last update in the map that includes toss ups.
I said once more reliable post-debate polling came in NC would likely flip to the GOP on the no toss ups map, and with a PPP poll showing Romney with a 2 point lead, that it did.
The Senate map also is unchanged:
Safe D: ME(R)^
Likely D: MO(D), OH(D), PA(D), VA(D), FL(D)
Lean D: AZ(R)^ CT(D), MA(R)^, WI(D)
Toss Up: IN(R), MT(D), ND(D)
Lean R: NV(R)
Safe R: NE(D)^
Senate without Toss Ups, Angus King as Dem: 53-44-3.
Senate assuming candidate with tiny leads wins: 55-45. (GOP picks up NE and MT, Dems pick up ME, MA, AZ, IN).
Since it's a fairly "boring" update, I decided to show you how I'm grouping the states and the exact averages for the competitive states. As I stated before, I group them as:
Toss Up - Within 2%
Leans - 2-5%
Likely 5-10%
Solid - >10%
Arizona:
Behavior Research Center: Obama +2
PPP: Romney +9
Average: Romney +3.5
Colorado:
Denver Post/SurveyUSA: Romney +1
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Romney +1
University of Denver/Selzer: Obama +4
Average: Obama +0.5
Florida:
PPP: Romney +1
Mason Dixon: Romney +7
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama +1
UNF: Obama +4
Average: Romney +0.8
Georgia:
Atlanta Journal: Romney +8
SurveyUSA: Romney +8
Average: Romney +8.0
Indiana:
Howey - Romney +12
Average: Romney +12.0
Iowa:
Des Moines Register: Obama +4
PPP: Obama +7
Average: Obama +5.5
Michigan:
Detroit News: Obama +7
EPIC-MRA: Obama +3
Average: Obama +5.0
Minnesota:
PPP: Obama +10
Mason Dixon: Obama +8
SurveyUSA: Obama +10
Average: Obama +9.3
Missouri:
PPP: Romney +6
Mason Dixon: Romney +7
Average: Romney +6.5
Montana:
PPP: Romney +11
Mason Dixon: Romney +9
Average: Romney +10.0
Nevada:
PPP: Obama +4
SurveyUSA: Obama +1
Average: Obama +2.5
New Hampshire:
WMUR/UNH: Obama +6
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama +7
Average: Obama +6.5
North Carolina:
PPP: Romney +2
High Point University: Obama +1
Average: Romney +0.5
Ohio:
PPP: Obama +5
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Obama +6
CNN: Obama +4
SurveyUSA: Obama +1
Average: Obama +4.0
Oregon:
SurveyUSA: Obama +9
PPP: Obama +8
Average: Obama +8.5
Pennsylvania:
PPP: Obama +7
Morning Call: Obama +4
Philadelphia Inquirer: Obama +8
Average: Obama +6.3
South Carolina:
Ipsos: Romney +6
Average: Romney +6.0
Tennessee:
Tennessean/Vanderbilt: Romney +7
Middle Tennessee State University: Romney +6
Average: Romney +6.5
Virginia:
NBC/WSJ/Marist: Romney +1
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama +5
PPP: Obama +3
Average: Obama +2.3
Wisconsin:
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac: Obama +3
PPP: Obama +2
Average: Obama +2.5
Phew, that takes so much time, no way am I doing it again. But at least you guys can have faith my numbers are legit now. :P I'm too lazy to list all of the Senate polls, and 99% are duplicates of the polls from above anyway, but here are the averages:
Arizona: Carmona +3 (Dem pickup)^
Connecticut: Murphy +2.5
Florida: Nelson +8.7
Indiana: Donnelly +2 (Dem pickup)^
Maine: King +17.2 (Dem pickup)^
Massachusetts: Warren +2.7 (Dem pickup)^
Missouri: McCaskill +7.5
Montana: Rehberg +0.5 (GOP pickup)^^
Nebraska: Fischer +16 (GOP pickup)^^
Nevada: Heller +3
North Dakota: Heitkamp +0.5
Ohio: Brown +7.3
Pennsylvania: Casey +7.7
Virginia: Kaine +5
Wisconsin: Baldwin +2.5