The other day, just after the second debate, but before any more cheerful polls appeared, I decided to take a look at what I called "The Mid-October Nadir" for the Electoral College, and thus the likely outcome, right then, of the election. Things were at their darkest: could we actually have to suffer four years of President Romney? I shuddered at the prospect and made my little Electoral College List to see what was what. For those of you who don't do things like this, here's my list, for your edification. And, I hope, that you will derive at least a little comfort from it. I did.
The first list is of states that are Absolutely and for Sure going to Obama. The number immediately after the state's postal code abbreviation is the number of electoral votes the state has (and yes, I did take the number from the latest post-census figures). The number in parentheses is the per cent of votes that went to Obama in 2008.
DC=3 (93)
HI=4 (72)
VT=3 (67)
RI=4 (63)
IL=20 (62)
NY=29 (62)
MA=11 (62)
CA=55 (61)
MD=10 (61)
DE=3 (61)
CT=7 (60)
WA=12 (58)
ME=4 (58)
MI=16 (57)
NJ=14 (57)
OR=7 (57)
NM=5 (57)
PA=20 (55)
MN=10 (54)
Total EV: 237
So this is Obama's base number. He starts with 237 electoral votes. He needs 33 more to get to 270 and win the election. Here are the states that Nate Silver (or his model) thought were more than 60% likely to go to Obama at that bleak point in time:
WI=10 (56)
NH=4 (54)
IA=6 (54)
NV=6 (55)
OH=18 (51)
Total EV: 44
If you add that to the base figure:
Total with LEAN: 281 WIN
If you think Obama will lose any of those states, subtract the votes from the total of 281. Personally, I don't think he will. At the moment in time when I was compiling my little list, the toss-up states were:
CO=9 (53)
VA=13 (52)
Total: 22
If Obama wins both we get what I think is the most likely maximum number for us in 2012, namely 303, which is a win, although noticeably less than the 365 he got in 2008.
Let's take a look at Romney. I'll start with the slight lean state that hurts the most:
Slight Lean Romney:
FL=29 (51) (Obama win 2008)
It depresses me to think Obama may well lose Florida. I'm a senior, I can't believe other seniors don't realize that Romney/Ryan don't want us to have what we have now in terms of money and health care (which translates into both living rather than dying, and money so that we can live without choosing between medication and food). They would rather the 1% get more benefits, while we get less, because... uh.... because.... deficit?
There's another state Obama won, just barely, in 2008 that looks like it will go to Romney:
Likely Romney (more than 80% chance of Romney win):
NC=15 (49.5)
Here's the states that absolutely are going for Romney. The number in parentheses here is McCain's per cent of the vote in 2008. And the list includes the state Obama won in 2008, and will certainly lose this time around.
Absolutely Romney (McCain's % of vote 2008):
IN=11 (49) (Obama win 2008)
MO=10 (49/49)
MT=3 (50)
GA=16 (52)
ND=3 (53)
SD=3 (53)
AR=6 (54)
AZ11 (54)
SC=9 (54)
WV=5 (56)
TX=38 (56)
MS=6 (56)
KS=6 (57)
NE=5 (57)
TN=11 (57)
KY=8 (57)
AK=3 (59)
LA=8 (59)
ID=4 (62)
AL=9 (62)
UT=6 (63)
WY=3 (65)
OK=7 (66)
Total EV: 191
With LIKELY and LEAN: 235
Possible MAX TOTAL (Romney wins toss-ups): 257
McCain 2008: 173
So to me, using my little list, it appears that the possible WORST case is:
Obama 281
Romney 257
If, on election night as you watch the returns come in, you see Virginia and Florida clearly going for Obama, you can pop the champagne cork, we're gonna win.