Below you will find my projections for the November 6th election for all 135 Virginia localities. This is based on current polling averages vs. historical outcomes and trends, but unlike the polling it is based on this model looks at voter registrations and where they are centered. See this diary for why the polls might be understating Obama's advantage slightly.
Currently, I am projecting:
4,065,467 votes on November 6th in Virginia
2,081,138 votes for Barack Obama, or 51.19%.
1,917,599 votes for Mitt Romney, or 47.17%
And third party candidates receiving 1.64% of the vote.
Absentee data seems to be closely mirroring 2008. As more polling and other data comes in, I will use it to update this model. All data is below the fold and I have included 2008 Obama margins so you can compare and contrast. If you are familiar with any of these localities and think my projection is off, please let me know as I'd like to refine this as we get closer to election day. I will update the projection as we go.
COUNTY/CITY |
Obama2012 |
Romney2012 |
Margin12 |
Margin08 |
ACCOMACK
COUNTY |
7832 |
8554 |
-722 |
-226 |
ALBEMARLE
COUNTY |
33063 |
23862 |
9200 |
9216 |
ALEXANDRIA
CITY |
55293 |
22015 |
33278 |
31292 |
ALLEGHANY
COUNTY |
3403 |
3829 |
-425 |
-162 |
AMELIA
COUNTY |
2596 |
4382 |
-1786 |
-1482 |
AMHERST
COUNTY |
6253 |
9225 |
-2971 |
-2376 |
APPOMATTOX
COUNTY |
2722 |
5359 |
-2637 |
-2262 |
ARLINGTON
COUNTY |
90460 |
35531 |
54929 |
49118 |
AUGUSTA
COUNTY |
10166 |
25348 |
-15182 |
-13295 |
BATH
COUNTY |
974 |
1362 |
-388 |
-306 |
BEDFORD
CITY |
1187 |
1575 |
-388 |
-289 |
BEDFORD
COUNTY |
11449 |
26867 |
-15418 |
-13403 |
BLAND
COUNTY |
857 |
2152 |
-1296 |
-1167 |
BOTETOURT
COUNTY |
5652 |
12166 |
-6514 |
-5778 |
BRISTOL
CITY |
2680 |
4907 |
-2227 |
-1914 |
BRUNSWICK
COUNTY |
4810 |
2988 |
1822 |
2096 |
BUCHANAN
COUNTY |
3831 |
4621 |
-790 |
-478 |
BUCKINGHAM
COUNTY |
3575 |
3729 |
-154 |
61 |
BUENA
VISTA CITY |
1218 |
1475 |
-257 |
-174 |
CAMPBELL
COUNTY |
8181 |
18775 |
-10594 |
-9353 |
CAROLINE
COUNTY |
7659 |
6323 |
1336 |
1546 |
CARROLL
COUNTY |
4105 |
8727 |
-4622 |
-4078 |
CHARLES
CITY COUNTY |
2761 |
1344 |
1417 |
1550 |
CHARLOTTE
COUNTY |
2512 |
3390 |
-878 |
-667 |
CHARLOTTESVILLE
CITY |
18629 |
4989 |
13640 |
11627 |
CHESAPEAKE
CITY |
55055 |
57022 |
-1968 |
1369 |
CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY |
78892 |
96715 |
-17823 |
-12103 |
CLARKE
COUNTY |
3645 |
4274 |
-629 |
-383 |
COLONIAL
HEIGHTS CITY |
2475 |
6392 |
-3918 |
-3599 |
COVINGTON
CITY |
1281 |
1073 |
208 |
284 |
CRAIG
COUNTY |
872 |
1800 |
-928 |
-818 |
CULPEPER
COUNTY |
9511 |
12158 |
-2648 |
-1909 |
CUMBERLAND
COUNTY |
2250 |
2575 |
-325 |
-163 |
DANVILLE
CITY |
11741 |
8564 |
3177 |
3991 |
DICKENSON
COUNTY |
3029 |
3328 |
-299 |
-46 |
DINWIDDIE
COUNTY |
6434 |
7129 |
-695 |
-280 |
EMPORIA
CITY |
1725 |
967 |
758 |
805 |
ESSEX
COUNTY |
3112 |
2661 |
451 |
555 |
FAIRFAX
CITY |
6344 |
4863 |
1481 |
1884 |
FAIRFAX
COUNTY |
327249 |
223725 |
103524 |
109365 |
FALLS
CHURCH CITY |
5248 |
2298 |
2950 |
2725 |
FAUQUIER
COUNTY |
15432 |
21424 |
-5992 |
-4611 |
FLOYD
COUNTY |
2925 |
4722 |
-1797 |
-1504 |
FLUVANNA
COUNTY |
6196 |
6859 |
-663 |
-235 |
FRANKLIN
CITY |
2681 |
1615 |
1066 |
1243 |
FRANKLIN
COUNTY |
9968 |
16922 |
-6954 |
-5796 |
FREDERICK
COUNTY |
14595 |
23642 |
-9047 |
-7188 |
FREDERICKSBURG
CITY |
8121 |
4548 |
3573 |
2742 |
GALAX CITY |
987 |
1335 |
-348 |
-265 |
GILES
COUNTY |
3125 |
4679 |
-1555 |
-1270 |
GLOUCESTER
COUNTY |
7038 |
13078 |
-6040 |
-5173 |
GOOCHLAND
COUNTY |
4978 |
8377 |
-3399 |
-2830 |
GRAYSON
COUNTY |
2384 |
4692 |
-2308 |
-2060 |
GREENE
COUNTY |
3574 |
5843 |
-2269 |
-1806 |
GREENSVILLE
COUNTY |
3021 |
1797 |
1225 |
1393 |
HALIFAX
COUNTY |
8125 |
9174 |
-1048 |
-474 |
HAMPTON
CITY |
48794 |
22542 |
26252 |
26441 |
HANOVER
COUNTY |
18992 |
40780 |
-21787 |
-18897 |
HARRISONBURG
CITY |
9814 |
7279 |
2535 |
2396 |
HENRICO
COUNTY |
91537 |
75342 |
16195 |
18942 |
HENRY
COUNTY |
10490 |
14009 |
-3519 |
-2640 |
HIGHLAND
COUNTY |
490 |
854 |
-365 |
-340 |
HOPEWELL
CITY |
5199 |
4368 |
831 |
1136 |
ISLE OF
WIGHT COUNTY |
8972 |
12456 |
-3484 |
-2685 |
JAMES CITY
COUNTY |
18954 |
23945 |
-4992 |
-3560 |
KING &
QUEEN COUNTY |
1887 |
1856 |
31 |
155 |
KING
GEORGE COUNTY |
5089 |
6966 |
-1877 |
-1415 |
KING
WILLIAM COUNTY |
3513 |
5511 |
-1998 |
-1622 |
LANCASTER
COUNTY |
3027 |
3689 |
-662 |
-412 |
LEE COUNTY |
3120 |
6060 |
-2940 |
-2606 |
LEXINGTON
CITY |
1930 |
1167 |
763 |
629 |
LOUDOUN
COUNTY |
90691 |
78819 |
11873 |
11509 |
LOUISA
COUNTY |
7449 |
9198 |
-1749 |
-1204 |
LUNENBURG
COUNTY |
2581 |
2982 |
-400 |
-197 |
LYNCHBURG
CITY |
19174 |
21466 |
-2292 |
-1369 |
MADISON
COUNTY |
2823 |
3965 |
-1142 |
-896 |
MANASSAS
CITY |
8570 |
7080 |
1490 |
1543 |
MANASSAS
PARK CITY |
2915 |
1995 |
919 |
829 |
MARTINSVILLE
CITY |
3873 |
2337 |
1535 |
1828 |
MATHEWS
COUNTY |
1854 |
3564 |
-1710 |
-1522 |
MECKLENBURG
COUNTY |
7195 |
8403 |
-1208 |
-690 |
MIDDLESEX
COUNTY |
2288 |
3651 |
-1363 |
-1154 |
MONTGOMERY
COUNTY |
23418 |
22126 |
1291 |
2003 |
NELSON
COUNTY |
4286 |
3816 |
470 |
744 |
NEW KENT
COUNTY |
3878 |
7407 |
-3529 |
-2892 |
NEWPORT
NEWS CITY |
52239 |
30708 |
21532 |
23305 |
NORFOLK
CITY |
63432 |
26678 |
36754 |
38005 |
NORTHAMPTON
COUNTY |
3605 |
2774 |
830 |
1087 |
NORTHUMBERLAND
COUNTY |
3246 |
4242 |
-996 |
-729 |
NORTON
CITY |
753 |
802 |
-49 |
-1 |
NOTTOWAY
COUNTY |
3248 |
3587 |
-339 |
-86 |
ORANGE
COUNTY |
7371 |
9344 |
-1972 |
-1399 |
PAGE
COUNTY |
4098 |
6277 |
-2179 |
-1806 |
PATRICK
COUNTY |
2837 |
5788 |
-2952 |
-2612 |
PETERSBURG
CITY |
14485 |
1758 |
12726 |
12191 |
PITTSYLVANIA
COUNTY |
11414 |
19980 |
-8566 |
-7315 |
POQUOSON
CITY |
1709 |
5478 |
-3769 |
-3481 |
PORTSMOUTH
CITY |
32320 |
14915 |
17404 |
18343 |
POWHATAN
COUNTY |
4478 |
11249 |
-6771 |
-5851 |
PRINCE
EDWARD COUNTY |
5341 |
4620 |
721 |
927 |
PRINCE
GEORGE COUNTY |
7425 |
9645 |
-2220 |
-1622 |
PRINCE
WILLIAM COUNTY |
111904 |
83367 |
28537 |
25814 |
PULASKI
COUNTY |
5735 |
9213 |
-3479 |
-2939 |
RADFORD
CITY |
3099 |
2698 |
401 |
512 |
RAPPAHANNOCK
COUNTY |
2069 |
2344 |
-274 |
-122 |
RICHMOND
CITY |
78395 |
20922 |
57473 |
54974 |
RICHMOND
COUNTY |
1583 |
2192 |
-610 |
-474 |
ROANOKE
CITY |
25036 |
16476 |
8560 |
9540 |
ROANOKE
COUNTY |
19659 |
32411 |
-12752 |
-10759 |
ROCKBRIDGE
COUNTY |
4416 |
6193 |
-1777 |
-1385 |
ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY |
10948 |
24875 |
-13927 |
-12015 |
RUSSELL
COUNTY |
4894 |
6774 |
-1880 |
-1457 |
SALEM CITY |
5195 |
7598 |
-2403 |
-1924 |
SCOTT
COUNTY |
2596 |
7162 |
-4566 |
-4255 |
SHENANDOAH
COUNTY |
7148 |
13156 |
-6008 |
-5093 |
SMYTH
COUNTY |
4183 |
8251 |
-4068 |
-3578 |
SOUTHAMPTON
COUNTY |
4443 |
4926 |
-483 |
-181 |
SPOTSYLVANIA
COUNTY |
26969 |
32541 |
-5572 |
-3713 |
STAFFORD
COUNTY |
28747 |
34086 |
-5339 |
-3505 |
STAUNTON
CITY |
5806 |
5879 |
-73 |
239 |
SUFFOLK
CITY |
23362 |
18908 |
4454 |
5281 |
SURRY
COUNTY |
2554 |
1735 |
819 |
963 |
SUSSEX
COUNTY |
3216 |
2117 |
1100 |
1275 |
TAZEWELL
COUNTY |
5459 |
11714 |
-6255 |
-5605 |
VIRGINIA
BEACH CITY |
100736 |
108622 |
-7887 |
-1434 |
WARREN
COUNTY |
7406 |
9914 |
-2507 |
-1882 |
WASHINGTON
COUNTY |
8133 |
17270 |
-9137 |
-8014 |
WAYNESBORO
CITY |
3876 |
5105 |
-1229 |
-909 |
WESTMORELAND
COUNTY |
4673 |
4034 |
639 |
858 |
WILLIAMSBURG
CITY |
6048 |
3284 |
2764 |
1975 |
WINCHESTER
CITY |
5206 |
4993 |
213 |
543 |
WISE
COUNTY |
4943 |
9431 |
-4487 |
-3919 |
WYTHE
COUNTY |
4121 |
8779 |
-4658 |
-4100 |
YORK
COUNTY |
13901 |
21407 |
-7505 |
-6133 |
Totals |
2081138 |
1917599 |
163539 |
234527 |
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