On a day when the polling load was actually (for this late in the cycle) relatively light (just
36 polls in total), we nonetheless see the re-emergence of one of the dominant themes of this election.
If you are a Mitt Romney supporter, you have to feel reasonably good about the data that came out of the national polls today. Averaging today's national data together, Romney established one of his larger average leads of the cycle. What's more, he improved his standing versus President Obama in 4 of 8 polls, while the president improved his relative position in just two of them.
If you are a supporter of the president, however, you have to look to today's state-by-state polling and feel awfully good about your prospects. It is that disconnect between national and state polling that has reared its head on multiple occasions during the election cycle. With just 12 days to go, it still seems to be very much in evidence. Could it mean we are heading to another (historically rare) split between the electoral vote and popular vote in the battle for the White House?
More on that after the jump. For now, though, on to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:
NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 47
NATIONAL (AP/GfK): Romney 47, Obama 45 (LV); Obama 45, Romney 44 (RV)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 47 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 47 (RV)
NATIONAL (IBD/TIPP Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 45
NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Romney 47, Obama 46 (LV); Obama 46, Romney 42 (RV)
NATIONAL (PPP Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 50, Obama 47
NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 47
ARIZONA (Rasmussen): Romney 52, Obama 44
CALIFORNIA (PPIC): Obama 53, Romney 41
COLORADO (Grove Insight for Project New America--D): Obama 46, Romney 43
COLORADO (Keating Research): Obama 48, Romney 45
COLORADO (NBC News/Marist): Obama 48, Romney 48 (LV); Obama 48, Romney 47 (RV)
COLORADO (PPP): Obama 51, Romney 47
FLORIDA (Gravis--R): Romney 50, Obama 49
FLORIDA (Grove Insight for Project New America and USAction--D): Obama 47, Romney 45
IOWA (PPP for HCAN): Obama 49, Romney 47
MICHIGAN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Obama 47, Romney 47
NEVADA (NBC News/Marist): Obama 50, Romney 47 (LV); Obama 51, Romney 45 (RV)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama 48, Romney 48
PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Obama 51, Romney 46
VIRGINIA (Fox News): Romney 47, Obama 45 (LV); Romney 46, Obama 45 (RV)
VIRGINIA (PPP for HCAN): Obama 51, Romney 46
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Romney 50, Obama 48
WISCONSIN (PPP for HCAN): Obama 51, Romney 45
DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
AZ-SEN (Rasmussen): Jeff Flake (R) 50, Richard Carmona (D) 44
CA-SEN (USC/Los Angeles Times): Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) 55, Elizabeth Emken (R) 38 (corrected from Weds)
CT-SEN (Gotham Research Group for the Murphy campaign): Chris Murphy (D) 47, Linda McMahon (R) 41
NV-SEN (NBC News/Marist): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 48, Shelley Berkley (D) 45 (LV); Heller 46, Berkley 46 (RV)
NV-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Dean Heller (R) 50, Shelley Berkley (D) 45
IN-GOV (Benenson Strategy Group for the Gregg campaign): Mike Pence (R) 46, John Gregg (D) 40, Rupert Boneham (L) 6
NC-GOV (PPP): Pat McCrory (R) 50, Walter Dalton (D) 37, Barbara Howe (L) 5
ND-GOV (Essman/Research): Gov. Jack Dalrymple (R) 59, Ryan Taylor (D) 28
CT-05 (Garin-Hart-Yang for the Esty campaign): Elizabeth Esty (D) 46, Andrew Roraback (R) 42
MI-11 (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Kerry Bentvolio (R) 47, Syed Taj (D) 39
NV-03 (SurveyUSA): Rep. Joe Heck (R) 50, John Oceguera (D) 40C
A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
Unlike yesterday, when the overall average movement and individual poll trajectories favored the president, today was a day where the challenger made a bit of a national polling comeback. Romney's overall "lead" extended to 1.0 percentage points (from 0.1 yesterday). Meanwhile, he made gains in four of the eight polls (AP, ABC/WaPo, IBD/TIPP, and UPI/CVoter) of 1-3 points. President Obama experienced single-point gains in the Rasmussen and PPP tracking polls. Ipsos/Reuters and Gallup, meanwhile, held steady.
On one level, that is potentially problematic news for the Obama camp. That is another day of post-debate interviews being fed into these polls (with the notable exception of the AP poll, which was almost entirely conducted pre-debate), and the movement thus far seems to be comprised primarily of float and noise within the margins of error. While that is not devastating news for the president, it is an (early) sign that another decisive debate win has come and gone without any apparent "bounce" in the head-to-head polling.
At least, not in the national polls.
And here is where things get more than a little peculiar. In the state polls that were released today, virtually all of which were conducted post-debate, we see several data points showing improvement for Barack Obama, and decent movement, in several cases.
Consider:
Today's polling results (with previous result, with same pollster, in parentheses), state polls released 10/25/12
ARIZONA (Rasmussen): Romney +8 (Romney +10)
CALIFORNIA (PPIC): Obama +12 (Obama +14)
COLORADO (Grove Insight--D): Obama +3 (Obama +3)
COLORADO (Keating Research): Obama +3 (Obama +5)
COLORADO (NBC/Marist): Obama +0 (Obama +5)
COLORADO (PPP): Obama +4 (Obama +3)
FLORIDA (Gravis--R): Romney +1 (Romney +1)
FLORIDA (Grove Insight--D): Obama +2 (Obama +3)
IOWA (PPP): Obama +2 (Obama +1)
MICHIGAN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Obama +0 (Obama +3)
NEVADA (NBC News/Marist): Obama +3 (Obama +2)
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP): Obama +0 (Romney +2)
PENNSYLVANIA (Rasmussen): Obama +5 (Obama +5)
VIRGINIA (Fox News): Romney +2 (Obama +7)
VIRGINIA (PPP for HCAN): Obama +5 (Obama +2)
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Romney +2 (Romney +3)
WISCONSIN (PPP): Obama +6 (Obama +2)
So, even beyond the toplines (which, by and large, look good for the president), there is the simpler issue that he exceeds his previous result in the eight of the seventeen polls here.
On the surface, it looks like Romney keeps pace, as he improves on his margins in six of them.
However, and this is a giant caveat, four of those "improved performances" (PPIC in California, Fox News in Virginia, and the Keating and NBC/Marist polls in Colorado) are deceptive, because they were taken during the president's peak performance weeks in mid-September. And, even at that, the movement was only dramatic in two of those (the NBC/Marist Colorado poll and the FNC Virginia poll)
What does it all mean? It could mean that the national polls, since they have so many pre-debate interviews still in the mix, are simply being a lagging indicator. But that would be a position undermined by the ABC/WaPo tracker, which has been giving Mitt Romney an expanding lead, despite the fact that three-quarters of their interviews have been conducted since debate #3.
It could simply mean, as many have posited all along, that Mitt Romney will overperform in national polls simply because his support in the red states is overwhelming. There is some credence to that when you look at the few reliably red states that have been polled (relatively recent data in Utah, Idaho, and North Dakota immediately come to mind). There is also some credence when you consider that Obama's performance in the blue states are simply not matching his 2008 totals (see: California and Connecticut, both polled in the last two days).
What it means, quite possibly, is that we are staring at a potential electoral vote/popular vote division here. I am nowhere near willing to predict it yet (my own back-of-the-envelope PV estimate, based on state polling, still has Obama +1.8 percent), but it is looking at least plausible at this point.